Mafia 115 (sign up now for M116)

Notes for JR’s Journal:
Day 2: Throw Potent under the bus as soon as possible...Can’t let anyone remember the positive things I said about him and the fact I tried to save him at the end of Day 1, too.

Quick read through Jaz's posts and if the mafia was attempting to whack the inspector, to me it could possibly implicate Potent, Pablo, Zig, Dan or myself.

Potent and Pablo for obvious reasons.
Zig for his quick grilling of him about his options for his very first vote
Dan because of Jaz saying "Ive now noted that potent and kanye have taken their votes off dan and placed them on to me."
Me because he spent a post to say "COACHED!" after I pointed something out.

Im going to reread again as if I was a mafia version of everyone above and see who I would think was inspector with my name.

So I haven't been getting notifications all day. Gonna have to do a read through

Kanye>Danbob

The only thing that stood out to me from jortles' quick summary was the wuote from jaz saying he has noted myself and potent switching off of Dan onto him. It sounds like he was making a connection with a given name of Dan

I guess I shouldn't be surprised you are voting based on my quick recap. Lol

Almost didn't include Dan or myself on that list because I thought those examples were pretty minor compared to the full campaign he launched against pablo/potent. That quote from Jaz almost made me include you on that list as well, but he went to lengths to defend you as town later on.

Yeah I can see the first three people listed as being implicated by the whack and am taking that into consideration. The other two not so much. Especially not the the one where he said “COACHED” to you.

Just hit the last few pages. It was in the postgame. Or just treat them as random votes

UGH!

You're not saving me any time. You're giving me work to do.

Disclaimer: I don't think Jaz was inspector, but I am reading into it since that is supposedly the best strategy to see who he scared off

Jaz potentially scared 3 people: Potent, Dan and Pablo.

Is it possible that if Jaz was inspector his given name was Potent? If so, maybe that was why he noted that Potent and I switched off of Dan to him? That could be him trying to trying to make a connection with a possible Potent mafia teammate. However, it is super rare to get mafia lynched on day 1 and I don't know if it is worthwhile to read into a storyline where potent is mafia. 

I am also not going to read to into Jaz attacking Zig early on with how he voted. I think Jaz is smarter than attacking a given name that early and was just trying to point out a flaw in his vote.

So now to Danbob, Jaz made jokes with Dan about his hat maybe to be friendly to him so Dan might look the other way? This was followed by him noting that Potent and I had moved to him off of Dan. 



I already mentioned that he could have had potent as his given name and was trying to connect the dots. But what if Dan was his given name, and he was trying to figure out Dan mafia temmates? 


There's the obvious campaign that Jaz ran to get a Pablo/Potent Runoff. Although Jaz never really directly called out Pablo which would be smart to do if Pablo was his given name. Anytime he mentioned Pablo he threw in Potent's name, potentially trying to hide the fact he had one of their names? Jaz also mentioned that vote switching meant mafia movement in his opinion: This would implicate me, Pablo, and Carini as we moved the most amount of votes. 


This was the only time he directly responded to Pablo, and I notice that he says that people were quick to deny his theory essentially. The first person to question it was Dan. Or at the very least, Dan was the one that Jaz responded to. 


I think we should try for a Pablo/Dan runoff if we are going from who Jaz possibly implicated. ESPECIALLY after this quote from the dan man:

Time for my theory based on strategy and not on what Jaz said:

Someone that hasn't been noted is JR. He even stated himself before the whack that Jaz was more active than usual and that he even thought that Jaz was inspector. He also backed this up by saying that he suspects potent was mafia/out of character. Both of these came very quickly after the whack. I think that this can be viewed as JR trying to throw town into looking into what Jaz said too much, and also try to make us think that Potent was mafia-thus drawing us off his back, at least for a round. This is going to sound narcissistic but that is not my intention: Last game, I mentioned that if town always read into the whack as mafia thinking he was inspector then it would be SUPER easy to manipulate. So, the timing of his comments of confidence that Jaz was inspector and Potent was mafia is strange especially since he didn't come up with a theory or anything afterward. He just said two VERY strong thoughts and then dipped. I think it is a very viable strategy to throw off town by making us read into Jaz comments, and that is very well what he could be doing. Curious to hear what other people think about this one.

Jaz's posts, spoiler tagged so it doesn't eat up half the page if you're not trying to look at it. I haven't done a true reread yet, just quick read of Jaz's posts.

I buy that there was mafia in our 4 way runoff (Jaz, Potent, Kanye, Pablo) due to all the action. And I think we need to carry over some of that action to Day 2.

Jaz: Whacked.

If he was inspector, I believe there is absolutely no chance that he had either Pablo's or Potent's name. That shit would have been way too obvious and set him up on a platter to be whacked. My opinion of Jaz a player would drop significantly if this was the case. However, Pablo/Potent may have not thought that carefully. Or they may have been clueless on who inspector was and just wanted to get rid of Jaz because he is a good player and he was driving town to be against them. Inspector or not, he was a problem if Pablo or Potent are/were mafia.

Notes: Pablo switched off Kanye on to Jaz then back on to Kanye. Potent switched off Jaz and on to Pablo.

His little quote about Danbob may have been just subtle enough for me to believe that Dan as mafia would have been spooked by it. It is hard for me to put a ton of stock into this, but I am actually coming around to it being more plausible than I originally thought.

Note: Dan switched off of Kanye and on to Jaz because of his Pablo/Potent theory.

The Zig skirmish at the beginning I could go either way on. Basically, I don't think Jaz was inspector. I think that there is a good chance any of those 4 would have been worried enough to whack him though. Especially when you combine the fact that he is good at closing the deal later on in this game.

Note: Zig stayed on Jaz from the beginning.

Potent: Lynched, and I do think there is a decent chance he was mafia depending on how you read Agarrr's final switch to Lynch him.

Kanye: I am very convinced that Kanye is town. To expand on what I was being shady about last round, I think that Kanye's first game as mafia will be noticeable because he will calm down a bit. His future mafia coaches would be best suited to say something like, "Kanye - you do you and go in there like a wrecking ball with no regard for how your actions could implicate you." And that would have had to have happened IMMEDIATELY. Because Kanye voted within 2 minutes of the game being posted... with a photo. I think even if his future coaches ask him to just be himself, he will at least take the time to ask questions in the very beginning about what moves could make him suspicious. Is it smart to vote a certain way in round 1 etc. He also made a blunder, again, during the switch flurry of putting Pablo up to 4. He does something like this every game, and now that I've laid this out he will surely try to act like this when he finally is mafia. He mentioned that he often gets whacked or lynched... its because he plays so carelessly, and he plays like that because he doesn't yet understand how important it is to stay alive and not implicate yourself.

Beyond that, I want to recall when I switched off of JTR last game. I did so because only 1 vote in the next round was going to matter if I didn't. When I made that switch, it made it so all three votes mattered. However, that vote came back to bite me once I was revealed as mafia because Jaz smartly pointed out that it meant that I didn't care who ended up lynched. Which was absolutely true. And that proved Tainted was Town.

Fast forward to this game and we are in the exact same predicament. In order to get 3 meaningful votes in the next round, we needed someone to move from Jaz to Pablo. There is no fucking way that Mafia would do this after it came back to bite me last game. I put this idea out there in this thread and nobody answered me. I was pretty annoyed that nobody entertained this idea and I almost said something like "yeah of course there is no way mafia would switch because they learned from my blunder last game." I had that typed in and ready to post but I thought better of it because then Mafia might switch to prove to me that they are Town. I didn't end up saying anything though, and of course, good ole Kanye did switch from Jaz to Pablo. His reasoning wasn't even that we get the 2 extra meaningful votes, but I think if he was mafia, he would have been counseled against this move because of what happened literally the game before.

Pablo: I don't care at all about how engaged he has been. Total BS story-line. I've felt his presence in this game more than 3 or 4 others. However, since Jaz and Potent are dead, and I'm convinced Kanye is Town, I think Pablo needs to be in the runoff along with 2-3 fresh faces. Maybe Pablo isn't mafia, maybe he is. But there was too much action going on Day 1 to remove all of the ingredients for said action on Day 2.

Jortles > Pablo

For now.

I know you are still confused by this "supposed best strategy," and I really wish I could drill it home for you. When I was consulting with Mafia last game, some alternative whack ideas were brought up from time to time. It always came back to the fact that whacking the inspector is the most important goal of the mafia. The inspector is too powerful to not try to get. This is why the Town looks at the whack and believes that Mafia was TRYING to get the inspector whether they did or not.

Of course, Mafia can try to frame someone or just whack at random to throw the Town off, but them attempting to whack the inspector is just the most likely scenario. So it is valuable to see who that would implicate, and it doesn't matter if they were successful or not, because it is what they thought.

As for your JR theory, I'll first point out that Zig has brought it up... a lot. I also brought up that him immediately saying he thinks we got mafia potent was suspicious. However, I don't buy that he would openly suspect Jaz as inspector in this thread if he was Mafia.

No I understand why it's the best strategy now I was just using the word supposed. Obviously if I thought it was a bad strategy I wouldnt have spent 45 mins writing my post. I think we need Pablo/Dan/JR runoff