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I love Michael Thomas. I think he's elite and Top 3 WR in the league. But unless we truly think that Brees will be around for another 3 years or so, I'm not sold on the idea of paying him insane money for an extended contract. Once Brees is gone, the offense is going to undoubtedly change significantly. We also have numerous other young talent that will be up for new contracts in the very near future. It's a good problem to have, but it's still a problem.
Can someone help convince me why having a top paid WR will be beneficial to this team if Brees has maybe 2 more quality seasons left in him?
If you have the best receiver in the league and possibly the best of all time (pending future accomplishments), you pay the man. We also have the best quarterback as far as completion percentage and accuracy in the history of the game and second best overall in the league. We also have the best running back in the NFL. It doesn't matter who the quarterback is down the line because they aren't going to be as good as Brees. But Thomas can still catch and should remain a major threat for the rest of his career no matter who is throwing him the ball and what team. This buys us 5 years on paper, and probably we'll be able to defer and convert some of that money over time so that it doesn't completely hamstring the front office.
Thomas = best receiver in the game and deserving of the highest WR contract in the history of the NFL
One of the main stories coming out of training camp (besides Zion related stuff) is the connection Brees and Cook are developing. They've been showing hookups and touchdowns on news highlights, and then there have been a bunch of local stories about their developing chemistry.
I hope they become best friends. Chemistry on another level. Like wives start getting suspicious level of chemistry.
Random Sampling:
Coach Payton encouraged by Brees/Cook so far (Florio NBC)
If you've got something to back that up, I'm all ears. Same goes for Kanye and Jim. He's up there, but your point is not defendable by measurable statistics. The amount of plays wasted on throwing the ball to Hopkins overrides anything else. He's a lifetime 58% catcher which means approximately 4 out of 10 targets are incompletions or interceptions. Thomas is likely to be the all time leader in catch percentage by the end of his career. His lights out, unheard of 85% last year means that only 15% of throws to him were wasted or unsuccessful.
2016
Thomas - 92 catches, 1137 yards, 9 TD's, 76% catch percentage, 9.4 yards per target
Winner? Mostly a wash except 48 passing plays to Hopkins were unsuccessful and only 22 to Thomas were unsuccessful. That's roughly a game's worth of first downs difference lost in trying to complete a pass to Deandre Hopkins vs. Michael Thomas. Thomas takes it
Beyond the TD difference in 2017 (Thomas' 2nd season vs. Hopkins 5th), the yards per target and catch percentage weight heavily in Thomas' favor. He's a better option on a given play.
I don't think kamara is best RB in the league, definitely up there but idk about #1
I agree with this. He might be the best fit for the Saints out of any back in the league. His skill set is basically exactly what Payton likes in a back.
If you've got something to back that up, I'm all ears. Same goes for Kanye and Jim. He's up there, but your point is not defendable by measurable statistics. The amount of plays wasted on throwing the ball to Hopkins overrides anything else. He's a lifetime 58% catcher which means approximately 4 out of 10 targets are incompletions or interceptions. Thomas is likely to be the all time leader in catch percentage by the end of his career. His lights out, unheard of 85% last year means that only 15% of throws to him were wasted or unsuccessful.
2016
Thomas - 92 catches, 1137 yards, 9 TD's, 76% catch percentage, 9.4 yards per target
Winner? Mostly a wash except 48 passing plays to Hopkins were unsuccessful and only 22 to Thomas were unsuccessful. That's roughly a game's worth of first downs difference lost in trying to complete a pass to Deandre Hopkins vs. Michael Thomas. Thomas takes it
Beyond the TD difference in 2017 (Thomas' 2nd season vs. Hopkins 5th), the yards per target and catch percentage weight heavily in Thomas' favor. He's a better option on a given play.
You laid it out for me. The last 2 years Hopkins was more productive. TD's and yds. Also look at all the loaers Hop had to play with before Watson. Plus he's always been their only option. Everyone knows he's always getting the ball and they still can't stop him.
If you've got something to back that up, I'm all ears. Same goes for Kanye and Jim. He's up there, but your point is not defendable by measurable statistics. The amount of plays wasted on throwing the ball to Hopkins overrides anything else. He's a lifetime 58% catcher which means approximately 4 out of 10 targets are incompletions or interceptions. Thomas is likely to be the all time leader in catch percentage by the end of his career. His lights out, unheard of 85% last year means that only 15% of throws to him were wasted or unsuccessful.
2016
Thomas - 92 catches, 1137 yards, 9 TD's, 76% catch percentage, 9.4 yards per target
Winner? Mostly a wash except 48 passing plays to Hopkins were unsuccessful and only 22 to Thomas were unsuccessful. That's roughly a game's worth of first downs difference lost in trying to complete a pass to Deandre Hopkins vs. Michael Thomas. Thomas takes it
Beyond the TD difference in 2017 (Thomas' 2nd season vs. Hopkins 5th), the yards per target and catch percentage weight heavily in Thomas' favor. He's a better option on a given play.
If we are talking anything but Fantasy, using stats to describe why someone is the best at any position is exceptionally foolhardy. Thomas and Hopkins are in completely different situations. Hell in that 2017, you're very conveniently leaving out that he was catching balls from Tom Savage and TJ Yates for over half of the year. In 2016, he almost had a 1,000 yard season with Brock Osweiler and Tom Savage.
I think Hopkins is worlds better than Thomas. Just my humble opinion though. I think if they switched situations Hopkins would get even more productive.
I honestly don't think it's close.
However, ProFootballReference's AV stat would say that I (and Sang) am wrong.
I don't think kamara is best RB in the league, definitely up there but idk about #1
I agree with this. He might be the best fit for the Saints out of any back in the league. His skill set is basically exactly what Payton likes in a back.
This is far more arguable than Hopkins > Thomas. Bell is arguably the best RB and Gurley is also in that conversation.
What I'd put up there for Kamara is that his skill set is unique in time. He can run every WR route as well as any WR. He's the hardest RB to tackle in the NFL and has balance that no one else in the league is close to. We only used him as an every down back while Ingram was suspended last year. But with 1550+ yards from scrimmage and 81 catches in both of his years along with the 18 TD's last year, I'm going to argue for him. Obviously he doesn't play in a feature back system, because we're a weapons-on-field/matchup offense making a who's best argument a little more debatable than the WR comparison above.
If you've got something to back that up, I'm all ears. Same goes for Kanye and Jim. He's up there, but your point is not defendable by measurable statistics. The amount of plays wasted on throwing the ball to Hopkins overrides anything else. He's a lifetime 58% catcher which means approximately 4 out of 10 targets are incompletions or interceptions. Thomas is likely to be the all time leader in catch percentage by the end of his career. His lights out, unheard of 85% last year means that only 15% of throws to him were wasted or unsuccessful.
2016
Thomas - 92 catches, 1137 yards, 9 TD's, 76% catch percentage, 9.4 yards per target
Winner? Mostly a wash except 48 passing plays to Hopkins were unsuccessful and only 22 to Thomas were unsuccessful. That's roughly a game's worth of first downs difference lost in trying to complete a pass to Deandre Hopkins vs. Michael Thomas. Thomas takes it
Beyond the TD difference in 2017 (Thomas' 2nd season vs. Hopkins 5th), the yards per target and catch percentage weight heavily in Thomas' favor. He's a better option on a given play.
If we are talking anything but Fantasy, using stats to describe why someone is the best at any position is exceptionally foolhardy. Thomas and Hopkins are in completely different situations. Hell in that 2017, you're very conveniently leaving out that he was catching balls from Tom Savage and TJ Yates for over half of the year. In 2016, he almost had a 1,000 yard season with Brock Osweiler and Tom Savage.
I think Hopkins is worlds better than Thomas. Just my humble opinion though. I think if they switched situations Hopkins would get even more productive.
I honestly don't think it's close.
However, ProFootballReference's AV stat would say that I (and Sang) am wrong.
You probably made the point even better than I dis. Imagine Hopkins playing with the Saints. With Brees and Kamara. Jesus.
I agree with this. He might be the best fit for the Saints out of any back in the league. His skill set is basically exactly what Payton likes in a back.
This is far more arguable than Hopkins > Thomas. Bell is arguably the best RB and Gurley is also in that conversation.
What I'd put up there for Kamara is that his skill set is unique in time. He can run every WR route as well as any WR. He's the hardest RB to tackle in the NFL and has balance that no one else in the league is close to. We only used him as an every down back while Ingram was suspended last year. But with 1550+ yards from scrimmage and 81 catches in both of his years along with the 18 TD's last year, I'm going to argue for him. Obviously he doesn't play in a feature back system, because we're a weapons-on-field/matchup offense making a who's best argument a little more debatable than the WR comparison above.
Do you have stats to back up hardest RB to tackle in the NFL? or is that just your opinion?
I think Kamara brings a different skillset, you're right. I just don't think he's near the best running back. I think Gurley, Derrick Henry, Melvin Gordon, maybe Zeke are in that discussion.
You laid it out for me. The last 2 years Hopkins was more productive. TD's and yds. Also look at all the loaers Hop had to play with before Watson. Plus he's always been their only option. Everyone knows he's always getting the ball and they still can't stop him.
He caught less passes but had a few more yards. His 26 additional incompletions is more than 1.6 a game. You might not have noticed, but second leading WR had 28 catches last year. Thomas is the only WR target we have. Ginn caught 53 in 2017 (certainly decent 2nd WR #'s), but he was hurt last year. Thomas did it alone hauling in 125 which is almost 5x as many catches as #2. He also can't be stopped and in 3 short years has proven the #can'tguardmike moniker is legit.
I think Hopkins is Top 3. I don't think that TD's and Yards alone means as much as the entirety of the stats at large, but you're certainly entitled to your opinion. The catch percentage differential is a deeper stat and one that shows dependability and how much you value a given play. So I'll respectfully disagree with you and reiterate my opinion that Thomas is the best in the league. With a long enough career, he'll continue shattering records as he progresses just as he has been doing.
Baldy stated it, so I'll see if I can find some backup for missed tackles over the last couple of seasons.
As for stats being a foolhardy defense outside of fantasy, I hear what you're saying. But they don't lie. The catch percentage differential is inarguable though in my opinion. You could counter that Brees is the most accurate passer in NFL history, and that would be true as he holds several of the top season finishes of all time (including the record last year). But Thomas's catch percentage is 10% better than the team as a whole and is setting league records there as well. So if you can get it near him, he can catch it at a better rate than Brees can deliver to anyone else.
Baldy stated it, so I'll see if I can find some backup for missed tackles over the last couple of seasons.
As for stats being a foolhardy defense outside of fantasy, I hear what you're saying. But they don't lie. The catch percentage differential is inarguable though in my opinion. You could counter that Brees is the most accurate passer in NFL history, and that would be true as he holds several of the top season finishes of all time (including the record last year). But Thomas's catch percentage is 10% better than the team as a whole and is setting league records there as well. So if you can get it near him, he can catch it at a better rate than Brees can deliver to anyone else.
Yeah, I'm not saying Thomas sucks at all. He's an awesome receiver, I just think he's not as good (great?) as Hopkins.
i've got him in dynasty. that's pretty rad. he just had such a bad start, and a lot of his numbers come from a 2 game trouncing of the bottom dwellers (Giants/Jags); 508 of his 1059 yds and 6 of his 12 tds.
he also had 5 games under 10 carries, which imo takes you out of best back in the league convo.
i've got him in dynasty. that's pretty rad. he just had such a bad start, and a lot of his numbers come from a 2 game trouncing of the bottom dwellers (Giants/Jags); 508 of his 1059 yds and 6 of his 12 tds.
Yep. I guess we'll see this season. I think he'll continue to grow but going from my past guesses he has an equal chance of falling flat on his ass and getting replaced by the two-headed monster of Dion Lewis and Alex Barnes.
I cant find a list of amounts of broken tackles or whiffs per rush. I know Barkley led the league in broken tackles overall. What I could find is that for 2017, Kamara was #2 (per SportsInfo Solutions) with a 28.8% broken tackle rate. First is Dion Lewis at 29.9 but with more than 50 fewer touches.
For 2018, Kamara was 10th in yards after contact for running backs, but we play a 2 back offense. Just the same, 47.5% of his rushing yards come after contact, and he's 4th in RB's receiving yards after contact (per Fabiano NFL.com).
Gurley also seems primed to fall off pretty hard. idk, i haven't seen a ton of positive things about him recently. Leveon could be in for a rude awakening too. Zeke also has had the best O Line of any of the other guys mentioned. Idk Kamara can just do so much.
I'm not going to sit here and say that I think Kamara and Thomas are the best players at their position in the league. I'm not going to say they aren't, either. I think there are too many variables in play. But I will say that I've watched every game Thomas has played in during his three years in the league and the man is absolutely elite. And these past few weeks I've heard national media guys claiming that Thomas isn't elite.
He does not drop catches. He beats everyone who tries to defend him. He had 7 games last year where he caught double digit receptions when opponents knew they were going to throw to him. He had zero fumbles after Week 2. Out of 147 targets, he caught 125 balls and only dropped 3.
I will just chalk it up to him only having three years of film, plus the fact that everyone assumes that any position player who has success in N.O. has only Brees to thank and not their own abilities.
I think a lot of us Saints fans just have chips on our shoulders because this isn't the first time that national pundits have downplayed individual player successes. Brees can break every record in the book, and he has been for years, but he's always listed below Brady, Manning, and Rodgers in rankings of top QB. You give the nod to Brady for all his rings, and rightfully so. Manning's all time records are slowly all going to Brees, but I guess the man has two rings so give him the nod, too. But Rodgers? Based on what, a gut feeling?
TL;DR - I love Michael Thomas and I hope the size of this contract (although deserved) doesn't come back to bite us in the ass.
You laid it out for me. The last 2 years Hopkins was more productive. TD's and yds. Also look at all the loaers Hop had to play with before Watson. Plus he's always been their only option. Everyone knows he's always getting the ball and they still can't stop him.
He caught less passes but had a few more yards. His 26 additional incompletions is more than 1.6 a game. You might not have noticed, but second leading WR had 28 catches last year. Thomas is the only WR target we have. Ginn caught 53 in 2017 (certainly decent 2nd WR #'s), but he was hurt last year. Thomas did it alone hauling in 125 which is almost 5x as many catches as #2. He also can't be stopped and in 3 short years has proven the #can'tguardmike moniker is legit.
I think Hopkins is Top 3. I don't think that TD's and Yards alone means as much as the entirety of the stats at large, but you're certainly entitled to your opinion. The catch percentage differential is a deeper stat and one that shows dependability and how much you value a given play. So I'll respectfully disagree with you and reiterate my opinion that Thomas is the best in the league. With a long enough career, he'll continue shattering records as he progresses just as he has been doing.
He doesn't drop passes though. I've seen a stat saying he dropped 1 pass last year. So I guess the stat you're about has a lot more to do with his qb.
Baldy stated it, so I'll see if I can find some backup for missed tackles over the last couple of seasons.
As for stats being a foolhardy defense outside of fantasy, I hear what you're saying. But they don't lie. The catch percentage differential is inarguable though in my opinion. You could counter that Brees is the most accurate passer in NFL history, and that would be true as he holds several of the top season finishes of all time (including the record last year). But Thomas's catch percentage is 10% better than the team as a whole and is setting league records there as well. So if you can get it near him, he can catch it at a better rate than Brees can deliver to anyone else.
Yeah, I'm not saying Thomas sucks at all. He's an awesome receiver, I just think he's not as good (great?) as Hopkins.
I know you weren't saying that. I've got the homer side saying the opposite, but I think it will bear out in time. Thomas already has the records for total receptions in a WR's 1st year, total receptions through a WR's 2nd year and total catches through a WR's 3rd year having supplanted Landry and Beckham. He needs only 79 catches this year to top Jarvis Landry all time for WR's total catches through their 4th season.
And back to Thomas vs. Hopkins if we're going to talk about where they compare after first 3 years vs. most recent 3 years, edge clearly goes to Thomas again.
Michael Thomas - 321 catches, 3787 yards, 23 touchdowns, 77% catch rate, 9.1 yards per target
I mean I don't see it. You could argue Hopkins puts up more yards in a season, but that doesn't make him a better receiver in my mind. Thomas has the edge in the last 3 years, and he certainly has the edge in the first 3 years of either's career outside of yards per catch - though as noted, due to the relatively pedestrian catch percentage, he nevertheless trails in yards per target.
He caught less passes but had a few more yards. His 26 additional incompletions is more than 1.6 a game. You might not have noticed, but second leading WR had 28 catches last year. Thomas is the only WR target we have. Ginn caught 53 in 2017 (certainly decent 2nd WR #'s), but he was hurt last year. Thomas did it alone hauling in 125 which is almost 5x as many catches as #2. He also can't be stopped and in 3 short years has proven the #can'tguardmike moniker is legit.
I think Hopkins is Top 3. I don't think that TD's and Yards alone means as much as the entirety of the stats at large, but you're certainly entitled to your opinion. The catch percentage differential is a deeper stat and one that shows dependability and how much you value a given play. So I'll respectfully disagree with you and reiterate my opinion that Thomas is the best in the league. With a long enough career, he'll continue shattering records as he progresses just as he has been doing.
He doesn't drop passes though. I've seen a stat saying he dropped 1 pass last year. So I guess the stat you're about has a lot more to do with his qb.
It's not just that. You have to go after a ball, and missing a tough to catch ball isn't considered a drop (not saying Hopkins doesn't go after balls, I'm just saying it's not all on the QB). I got the drop stats for 2018 - Hopkins shows 2 and Thomas shows 3.
Yeah, I'm not saying Thomas sucks at all. He's an awesome receiver, I just think he's not as good (great?) as Hopkins.
I know you weren't saying that. I've got the homer side saying the opposite, but I think it will bear out in time. Thomas already has the records for total receptions in a WR's 1st year, total receptions through a WR's 2nd year and total catches through a WR's 3rd year having supplanted Landry and Beckham. He needs only 79 catches this year to top Jarvis Landry all time for WR's total catches through their 4th season.
And back to Thomas vs. Hopkins if we're going to talk about where they compare after first 3 years vs. most recent 3 years, edge clearly goes to Thomas again.
Michael Thomas - 321 catches, 3787 yards, 23 touchdowns, 77% catch rate, 9.1 yards per target
I mean I don't see it. You could argue Hopkins puts up more yards in a season, but that doesn't make him a better receiver in my mind. Thomas has the edge in the last 3 years, and he certainly has the edge in the first 3 years of either's career outside of yards per catch - though as noted, due to the relatively pedestrian catch percentage, he nevertheless trails in yards per target.
You're ignoring the garbage Hopkins has had to play with. As Watson gets better and more importantly they fix that offensive line and put more weapons around him, Hopkins is going to get even better.
I'm not ignoring it. We haven't had much help at either WR or TE either, so it's on him as a receiver. I'm not discounting that we've had a better QB the entirety of the comparison. I love Watson and will try to get him in both of my FFL leagues again this year. I finished #1 and #2 in 2018 season, and he was part of the reason why.
