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Also I’m not mafia and this is ridiculous that I have to defend myself from people thinking mafia would allow a 2 mafia final runoff.
Yes, it is very ridiculous that townies work their way through possible scenarios in an attempt to win. We all know that Mafia will do anything to win - let's not shame townies for doing the same.
Also I’m not mafia and this is ridiculous that I have to defend myself from people thinking mafia would allow a 2 mafia final runoff.
Yes, it is very ridiculous that townies work their way through possible scenarios in an attempt to win. We all know that Mafia will do anything to win - let's not shame townies for doing the same.
I see your point, and I have no problems with what you’re saying. It’s just that jortles is pushing it like it’s the most likely scenario, and I have no idea how to even defend myself at this point.
Any man who must say “I am townie” is no true townie.
I kid, but in all fairness, based on Potent’s post, Dan is pretty much the only remaining player who wasn’t cleared as town (though Maddog was only sorta cleared indirectly).
The issue is I’m still really not confident about Potent’s mistake being a real mistake. And for that reason, I’m honestly not sure about anyone lol.
Bonnaroo '15/'16/'17/'18/'19 - ACL '13/'14/'15/'17/'18 - Fun Fun Fun '14 - SXSW '13/'14/'15 - FPSF '16
2019 Shows: 4/30 - Vampire Weekend 6/28 - Father John Misty & Jason Isbell and the 400 Unit 9/6 - Cardi B w/ Teyana Taylor 9/28 - Vulfpeck w/ The Fearless Flyers
Any man who must say “I am townie” is no true townie.
I kid, but in all fairness, based on Potent’s post, Dan is pretty much the only remaining player who wasn’t cleared as town (though Maddog was only sorta cleared indirectly).
The issue is I’m still really not confident about Potent’s mistake being a real mistake. And for that reason, I’m honestly not sure about anyone lol.
Uhhh yourself, Kanye, me, Jortles are all uncleared...Maddog was cleared directly by SFA. You're quite wrong here.
Any man who must say “I am townie” is no true townie.
I kid, but in all fairness, based on Potent’s post, Dan is pretty much the only remaining player who wasn’t cleared as town (though Maddog was only sorta cleared indirectly).
The issue is I’m still really not confident about Potent’s mistake being a real mistake. And for that reason, I’m honestly not sure about anyone lol.
Uhhh yourself, Kanye, me, Jortles are all uncleared...Maddog was cleared directly by SFA. You're quite wrong here.
I'm saying that we were cleared if you're taking Potent's slip-up as legitimate. We were all (jortles, kanye, you, myself) named as possible whacks. So unless mafia was discussing offing their own, Potent suggested we are all town.
But again, I don't personally think any of us in that post were cleared because I'm not convinced it was a real mistake.
Bonnaroo '15/'16/'17/'18/'19 - ACL '13/'14/'15/'17/'18 - Fun Fun Fun '14 - SXSW '13/'14/'15 - FPSF '16
2019 Shows: 4/30 - Vampire Weekend 6/28 - Father John Misty & Jason Isbell and the 400 Unit 9/6 - Cardi B w/ Teyana Taylor 9/28 - Vulfpeck w/ The Fearless Flyers
Bonnaroo '15/'16/'17/'18/'19 - ACL '13/'14/'15/'17/'18 - Fun Fun Fun '14 - SXSW '13/'14/'15 - FPSF '16
2019 Shows: 4/30 - Vampire Weekend 6/28 - Father John Misty & Jason Isbell and the 400 Unit 9/6 - Cardi B w/ Teyana Taylor 9/28 - Vulfpeck w/ The Fearless Flyers
I’m at a rest stop so I’ll give my thoughts real quick. I’ve been suspicious of jortles all game and I can easily see potent doing the fake mafia chat shit to save him. He’s also been trying hard to frame me.
Uhhh yourself, Kanye, me, Jortles are all uncleared...Maddog was cleared directly by SFA. You're quite wrong here.
I'm saying that we were cleared if you're taking Potent's slip-up as legitimate. We were all (jortles, kanye, you, myself) named as possible whacks. So unless mafia was discussing offing their own, Potent suggested we are all town.
But again, I don't personally think any of us in that post were cleared because I'm not convinced it was a real mistake.
OOOOOOOhhhhh okay, thanks for clarifying.
Right now I'm suspicious of Jortles more than anyone, but I also think Agar or Kanye could be quietly coasting by. Will need to do a reread and gather some thoughts before voting.
Well, Jaz seems to be onto us, so maybe he's the whack. If we think inspector is still alive, I think Agarrrrrrrrrr, Kanye, or Jortles should be considered. We can wait to see if Jortles is voted out here.
I'm going to try to sneak some stuff in here while I should be working on a presentation. I'll first explain why I trust that Potent made a flat out mistake.
I can partially understand why you guys would be concerned about him using this to spare me. So let's walk through it.
Scenario: Thor / Potent / Jortles
- Day 1 we lose Thor, and we are down to 2 mafia members on day two. - Potent pushes me forward on Day 2 and I am the primary advocate of pushing Potent forward. I get into quite a bit of debate with SFA about Potent being worthy of the runoff with me. Potent never switches from me. - We were both willing to that amount of "distancing" throughout the day, voting for each other and what not, but then when it looked more and more like a possibility that I would be the lynch, we became desperate / uncomfortable
Note: I think there is a logic disconnect at this point.
- Potent is out of the runoff, and there is still one vote left. - Potent devises a plan to save me by planting his post. - In this plan, Potent doesn't only decide to clear me, but he decides to unnecessarily clear 3 other townies in the process. - Potent also believes that I have a better chance to win as the last Mafia member than he does with this clearing, so we still believe this is worth it despite it being a 1 for 1 trade being that Potent would certainly get lynched
In my opinion, there are a few logical leaps that would need to be made here to buy this plan. A very normal alternative would have been to allow Maddog to cast his vote. Maybe I'm going to live anyways and we have 2 Mafia members going into day 3. If MD votes for me, then Potent moves forward as the lone Mafia member since SFA and others have his back anyways.
There just isn't enough value in the move for it to make sense. Project out the plan to day 5.
I have armor because every buys Potents move. Day for I convince the Town to Lynch Dan, I whack one of the other 3... and then what? There's no endgame that makes sense for a Mafia victory. It would have been much more likely for Potent, who switched to kill Thor, to live all the way to the end.
The reason I fully believe that Potent just made a pure mistake, is because what I have described above is the MOST LIKELY scenario in which he was making a move, but I know that I am Town. I can't even conjure up a reason why he would have tried to clear Jaz, Agar or Kanye in that moment. None of them were in danger. They would have been going into Day 3 with 2 Mafia members which is totally fine.
Before I move on, I'd like you guys to poke holes in what I've said above. If you think I've strawmanned the scenario where I'm Mafia with Potent and Thor, please tell me why. To me when you really think it through, it's very unlikely... in fact much less likely than Potent making a mistake.
Post by Jake Jortles on May 31, 2019 11:22:04 GMT -5
Guys please do me a favor and don't lock your votes before I get a chance to post a bit more. You guys will be lynching Town here. Whoever is Town, just let me get to the end of what I have to say at least so you can reflect on it in Day 5.
Post by Silver Surfer on May 31, 2019 11:25:59 GMT -5
What makes me think it could have been planted to save you is that there was a good amount of talk of getting potent into the runoff the following round/regretting not getting him in that round's runoff. Combine this with the fact that you were facing a lynch then you get a sensible situation.
At the time of the post it was looking like a possible 3 in a row mafia lynch if you were his teammate. So he becomes desperate and tries to save you by getting rid of himself.
It makes sense to me.
However, if you aren't mafia then that more than likely means danbob is #3 as he wasn't named.
Post by Jake Jortles on May 31, 2019 11:32:22 GMT -5
I'm going to do one final breakdown of what the post means if it is a pure mistake, which I believe it to be.
The post clears Jaz, Agar, Kanye as Town. The post didn't mention SFA, Maddog, JTR, Dan
SFA clears himself and Maddog. JTR is dead and was almost certainly Town.
The post passively cleared JTR and Maddog in my opinion with the line "Lets see if Jortles gets voted out here."
All of this information only leaves a big fat question mark on Danbob Targaryeon.
If we lose this game on Day 5 because we didn't just accept what was handed to us on a silver platter, that will be massively disappointing. I hope that there is no way that who ever is remaining on Day 5 would allow Dan to win this game. It would be the ultimate failure in hindsight. If you want to lynch me now, so be it. But you have to get rid of Dan on Day 5. Ruin his perfect D5 record, please.
I still have one more post to make, detailing all of my issues with Dan beyond this glaring Potent mistake.
What makes me think it could have been planted to save you is that there was a good amount of talk of getting potent into the runoff the following round/regretting not getting him in that round's runoff. Combine this with the fact that you were facing a lynch then you get a sensible situation.
At the time of the post it was looking like a possible 3 in a row mafia lynch if you were his teammate. So he becomes desperate and tries to save you by getting rid of himself.
It makes sense to me.
However, if you aren't mafia then that more than likely means danbob is #3 as he wasn't named.
Follow through on your thought process in bold here. Who was producing that good amount of talk about getting him into the runoff? Me.. first and foremost.
You think that mafia planned to put the same heat on Potent that would force the desperation move?
What makes me think it could have been planted to save you is that there was a good amount of talk of getting potent into the runoff the following round/regretting not getting him in that round's runoff. Combine this with the fact that you were facing a lynch then you get a sensible situation.
At the time of the post it was looking like a possible 3 in a row mafia lynch if you were his teammate. So he becomes desperate and tries to save you by getting rid of himself.
It makes sense to me.
However, if you aren't mafia then that more than likely means danbob is #3 as he wasn't named.
Follow through on your thought process in bold here. Who was producing that good amount of talk about getting him into the runoff? Me.. first and foremost.
You think that mafia planned to put the same heat on Potent that would force the desperation move?
I believe SFA and jaz were suspicious of him too at the time, no?
My biggest fear at this point is that there are still 2 mafia alive. I'm pretty confident that one of Dan/Jortles is mafia, and if they're alone, then this is an easily winnable situation. If we vote out Dan now, and the game continues, then we can just take out Jortles next round (and vice-versa). However, if there are two left, and someone is just coasting right now, then things get more complicated.
If someone is coasting, then that would essentially confirm that Potent's mistake was a fraud. As stated earlier, Potent's post would hypothetically clear everyone left except for Dan (so for two mafia to be left, the mistake would have to have been a lie). I'm gonna try to do some puzzle-solving in my head, but idk what the best approach would be to account for this possibility. Without fully delving into it though, my instinct is that lynching Jortles would be the best move. If two of the "town" from Potent's post were actually mafia, Jortles seems like the most likely to be one of those two because he was in the run-off when Potent posted. Then, based on mafia's next whack (if the game continues), then it may be easier to deduce whether it was just Dan on his own all along, or if it was another person whose been coasting.
By contrast, if we just lynch Dan, and it turns out that there are indeed two mafia remaining (both "cleared" by Potent), we lose. Like I said though, I need to give this more thought.
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2019 Shows: 4/30 - Vampire Weekend 6/28 - Father John Misty & Jason Isbell and the 400 Unit 9/6 - Cardi B w/ Teyana Taylor 9/28 - Vulfpeck w/ The Fearless Flyers
My biggest fear at this point is that there are still 2 mafia alive. I'm pretty confident that one of Dan/Jortles is mafia, and if they're alone, then this is an easily winnable situation. If we vote out Dan now, and the game continues, then we can just take out Jortles next round (and vice-versa). However, if there are two left, and someone is just coasting right now, then things get more complicated.
If someone is coasting, then that would essentially confirm that Potent's mistake was a fraud. As stated earlier, Potent's post would hypothetically clear everyone left except for Dan (so for two mafia to be left, the mistake would have to have been a lie). I'm gonna try to do some puzzle-solving in my head, but idk what the best approach would be to account for this possibility. Without fully delving into it though, my instinct is that lynching Jortles would be the best move. If two of the "town" from Potent's post were actually mafia, Jortles seems like the most likely to be one of those two because he was in the run-off when Potent posted. Then, based on mafia's next whack (if the game continues), then it may be easier to deduce whether it was just Dan on his own all along, or if it was another person whose been coasting.
By contrast, if we just lynch Dan, and it turns out that there are indeed two mafia remaining (both "cleared" by Potent), we lose. Like I said though, I need to give this more thought.
There can't be two mafia left. Thor and potent are confirmed. I do agree with the sentiment of taking out whoever survives between Dan/jortles in the next round. I feel pretty strongly about jaz being town. And if it is you coasting by then you've done a really good job and I can accept it
My biggest fear at this point is that there are still 2 mafia alive. I'm pretty confident that one of Dan/Jortles is mafia, and if they're alone, then this is an easily winnable situation. If we vote out Dan now, and the game continues, then we can just take out Jortles next round (and vice-versa). However, if there are two left, and someone is just coasting right now, then things get more complicated.
If someone is coasting, then that would essentially confirm that Potent's mistake was a fraud. As stated earlier, Potent's post would hypothetically clear everyone left except for Dan (so for two mafia to be left, the mistake would have to have been a lie). I'm gonna try to do some puzzle-solving in my head, but idk what the best approach would be to account for this possibility. Without fully delving into it though, my instinct is that lynching Jortles would be the best move. If two of the "town" from Potent's post were actually mafia, Jortles seems like the most likely to be one of those two because he was in the run-off when Potent posted. Then, based on mafia's next whack (if the game continues), then it may be easier to deduce whether it was just Dan on his own all along, or if it was another person whose been coasting.
By contrast, if we just lynch Dan, and it turns out that there are indeed two mafia remaining (both "cleared" by Potent), we lose. Like I said though, I need to give this more thought.
There can't be two mafia left. Thor and potent are confirmed. I do agree with the sentiment of taking out whoever survives between Dan/jortles in the next round. I feel pretty strongly about jaz being town. And if it is you coasting by then you've done a really good job and I can accept it
Yeah ok my dumb ass forgot that SFA was given Thor's name. Guess it doesn't really matter who we take out first then. I will be stunned if the remaining mafia isn't Dan or Jortles.
Bonnaroo '15/'16/'17/'18/'19 - ACL '13/'14/'15/'17/'18 - Fun Fun Fun '14 - SXSW '13/'14/'15 - FPSF '16
2019 Shows: 4/30 - Vampire Weekend 6/28 - Father John Misty & Jason Isbell and the 400 Unit 9/6 - Cardi B w/ Teyana Taylor 9/28 - Vulfpeck w/ The Fearless Flyers
Actually, now that I think of it, going for Dan first makes more sense. If the game continues, that pretty much confirms Potent was lying, and we can go from there. I will say though that there's still a possibility that Tainted was inspector (& if this is the case, we were screwed from the jump). From there, both Potent and SFA could have lied to basically open up the door for a third mafia to coast. Potent lies first to try and draw out the real inspector if they're still alive, and then when nothing happens and the coast is seemingly clear, SFA lies. SFA clears a legit town member, but also reveals a false given name who isn't around to defend themselves.
It would be an extremely risky game plan, but could work.
That all being said, if they did that, more power to them. Moreover, if that's what they did, then this will go to a Day 5 regardless. May as well go with the safest course of action, which like I said, I think is lynching Dan. We can at least weed out one of the lies this way.
Bonnaroo '15/'16/'17/'18/'19 - ACL '13/'14/'15/'17/'18 - Fun Fun Fun '14 - SXSW '13/'14/'15 - FPSF '16
2019 Shows: 4/30 - Vampire Weekend 6/28 - Father John Misty & Jason Isbell and the 400 Unit 9/6 - Cardi B w/ Teyana Taylor 9/28 - Vulfpeck w/ The Fearless Flyers
Tbf I've wanted to do that "fake mistake" thing to trick people before so idk what to think
I just woke up so my comprehension skillet aren't totally there so could you run through this idea for me? At the very least that means potent is scum right?
Just now seeing this; I want "comprehension skillet" to become a mainstream phrase.
but I’m townie this time I pinky promise. 
