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And more indictments! Special counsel Jack Smith today filed a new superseding indictment against Trump on the same four counts of trying to overturn the 2020 election. But this time, it's without citing potentially "immune" evidence. AWESOME
“I’ve been asked to go on to the transition team to help pick the people who will be running the government and I am looking forward to that,” Kennedy told Tucker Carlson on his show on X, formerly Twitter.
Mother of god, they are going to let that idiot be in charge of something?
“I’ve been asked to go on to the transition team to help pick the people who will be running the government and I am looking forward to that,” Kennedy told Tucker Carlson on his show on X, formerly Twitter.
Mother of god, they are going to let that idiot be in charge of something?
I mean, they'd put the King of the Idiots in the Oval Office, so...
Speaking of North Carolina, that fuckface running for Governor is a piece of work. Please don’t let that POS win.
We’re tryin’! To think only 8-ish years ago he’s have been pushed out of the primaries fer his crazy point of view. But now he’s somehow the lieutenant governor, so it’s not impossible. Especially as the fuckin’ repubs are now tryin’ to kick over 200,000 registered voters off the roll.
So the current math if you only go based on the perceived swing states (and assuming Harris can hold Minnesota, New Mexico, and Maine), Harris needs to win:
New Hampshire - currently up by roughly 5 points
Virginia - 4 points
Michigan - 2 points
Wisconsin - 1 point
Nebraska CD2
Pennsylvania - Trump up by less than a point
That would give her exactly 270
You can swap Wisconsin and Nebraska CD2 with Arizona (Trump up by about a point) and also get 270. You can swap Michigan for North Carolina (Trump up by about a point) and get 271.
It seems like a long shot to think she can win North Carolina. Arizona is also going to be pretty tough. Her focus might need to be on Michigan, Wisconsin, Virginia, and Pennsylvania.
So the current math if you only go based on the perceived swing states (and assuming Harris can hold Minnesota, New Mexico, and Maine), Harris needs to win:
New Hampshire - currently up by roughly 5 points
Virginia - 4 points
Michigan - 2 points
Wisconsin - 1 point
Nebraska CD2
Pennsylvania - Trump up by less than a point
That would give her exactly 270
You can swap Wisconsin and Nebraska CD2 with Arizona (Trump up by about a point) and also get 270. You can swap Michigan for North Carolina (Trump up by about a point) and get 271.
It seems like a long shot to think she can win North Carolina. Arizona is also going to be pretty tough. Her focus might need to be on Michigan, Wisconsin, Virginia, and Pennsylvania.
Where are you getting these polling number?
Nate Silver's (I know, I know) averages have Harris up almost 2 pts in PA, over 3 in MI, about a half point in NC, about 3.5 in WI, 1.5 in AZ, about 1.5 in NV, almost 6 in VA. Also has her down about a half pt in GA.
I think the point is that there are many paths to victory.
Post by Delicious Meatball Sub on Aug 28, 2024 10:23:31 GMT -5
The aggregators I’m looking at all give Harris slight leads in Pa, but I think the general point that Michigan and PA are functionally 50/50 is a fair one. There’s not a realistic scenario for her to win without Pa right now.
The thing that’s been really stressing me is the Virginia polling. Biden won by 10 last cycle and now the recent polls are all in the 3-4 range. I’m not so much worried Harris will lose the state, but I wonder if that’s a sign of a problem that’s not getting picked up in the rust belt polls. Or it’s just lack of good polling.
So the current math if you only go based on the perceived swing states (and assuming Harris can hold Minnesota, New Mexico, and Maine), Harris needs to win:
New Hampshire - currently up by roughly 5 points
Virginia - 4 points
Michigan - 2 points
Wisconsin - 1 point
Nebraska CD2
Pennsylvania - Trump up by less than a point
That would give her exactly 270
You can swap Wisconsin and Nebraska CD2 with Arizona (Trump up by about a point) and also get 270. You can swap Michigan for North Carolina (Trump up by about a point) and get 271.
It seems like a long shot to think she can win North Carolina. Arizona is also going to be pretty tough. Her focus might need to be on Michigan, Wisconsin, Virginia, and Pennsylvania.
Where are you getting these polling number?
Nate Silver's (I know, I know) averages have Harris up almost 2 pts in PA, over 3 in MI, about a half point in NC, about 3.5 in WI, 1.5 in AZ, about 1.5 in NV, almost 6 in VA. Also has her down about a half pt in GA.
I think the point is that there are many paths to victory.
Nate Silver's (I know, I know) averages have Harris up almost 2 pts in PA, over 3 in MI, about a half point in NC, about 3.5 in WI, 1.5 in AZ, about 1.5 in NV, almost 6 in VA. Also has her down about a half pt in GA.
I think the point is that there are many paths to victory.
Realclearpolitics
I like your numbers better haha
Honestly its probably better to use RCP instead of 538. They tend to have a little more right wing bias in how they aggregate the polls and I think it would be better to look at their numbers than to get complacent.
I don’t know what’s going to happen in Arizona but I have to imagine the Senate race could help Harris in turnout.
If you aren’t paying attention it’s Rueben Gallego, a House member from the Phoenix area who is pretty popular despite being fairly liberal (pro filibuster reform!) and a former Marine who was deployed in Iraq vs Kari Lake the Magaest Maga to ever Maga and chief election denier to pillow guy levels. Most polls have Gallego up 5-10 points, better than Kelley was doing in 2022 in the end.
I think the strong labor focus in the campaign could help Harris in Nevada as well
This 8.3 is concerning. I know Trump is gonna win here easily, but this margin has to come down if we want Sherrod Brown re-elected.
Browns been doing okay, he’s led by 4-5 points in every poll I’ve seen. Part of a larger trend of Senate Dems significantly out performing Harris/Biden (except in Maryland which isn’t unexpected).
Also the best reason to never look at RCP is the extremely low quality right wing news they try to feed you while you’re there.
Post by abefroman1 on Aug 28, 2024 11:34:42 GMT -5
I'd have to imagine Kamala getting stonewalled by a shitty GOP Senate for the first 2 years of her presidency is probably the best case scenario at this point.
More gridlock so the dumb dumbs can whine about how "nothing ever gets done". At least 2026 would probably swing to the Dems if Kamala wins and all the trump voters disappear again for the midterms as they tend to do.
This 8.3 is concerning. I know Trump is gonna win here easily, but this margin has to come down if we want Sherrod Brown re-elected.
Browns been doing okay, he’s led by 4-5 points in every poll I’ve seen. Part of a larger trend of Senate Dems significantly out performing Harris/Biden (except in Maryland which isn’t unexpected).
Also the best reason to never look at RCP is the extremely low quality right wing news they try to feed you while you’re there.
Yeah I'm aware he's doing pretty good, that people here generally like him, and his opponent is a literal used car salesman. But it still blows my mind that 12% of the voting population in the state would vote split ticket? My prediction was that Brown would squeak by about 1.5% and Trump would win by like 4%
This 8.3 is concerning. I know Trump is gonna win here easily, but this margin has to come down if we want Sherrod Brown re-elected.
Browns been doing okay, he’s led by 4-5 points in every poll I’ve seen. Part of a larger trend of Senate Dems significantly out performing Harris/Biden (except in Maryland which isn’t unexpected).
Also the best reason to never look at RCP is the extremely low quality right wing news they try to feed you while you’re there.
Normally downballot candidates hope the Presidential election will help pull them up; this year they were worried about it pulling them down (under Biden) and now I'm optimistic it'll help pull Kamala up.
I'd have to imagine Kamala getting stonewalled by a shitty GOP Senate for the first 2 years of her presidency is probably the best case scenario at this point.
More gridlock so the dumb dumbs can whine about how "nothing ever gets done". At least 2026 would probably swing to the Dems if Kamala wins and all the trump voters disappear again for the midterms as they tend to do.
Definitely not the best case scenario, even if it's the most likely. Tester appears to be losing in Montana but there's not a ton of great polling there, and he's a three time incumbent. I'm not letting myself get optimistic about stealing Florida or Texas, but Cook Political Report still has Montana as a toss-up. Win that and we keep the Senate.
Browns been doing okay, he’s led by 4-5 points in every poll I’ve seen. Part of a larger trend of Senate Dems significantly out performing Harris/Biden (except in Maryland which isn’t unexpected).
Also the best reason to never look at RCP is the extremely low quality right wing news they try to feed you while you’re there.
Yeah I'm aware he's doing pretty good, that people here generally like him, and his opponent is a literal used car salesman. But it still blows my mind that 12% of the voting population in the state would vote split ticket? My prediction was that Brown would squeak by about 1.5% and Trump would win by like 4%
It's weird, but it happens. Brown's becoming Manchin-esque (but a force for more good). In 2012 Manchin won by 24 points, while Romney won by 27 -- an insane swing.
Yeah I'm aware he's doing pretty good, that people here generally like him, and his opponent is a literal used car salesman. But it still blows my mind that 12% of the voting population in the state would vote split ticket? My prediction was that Brown would squeak by about 1.5% and Trump would win by like 4%
It's weird, but it happens. Brown's becoming Manchin-esque (but a force for more good). In 2012 Manchin won by 24 points, while Romney won by 27 -- an insane swing.
West Virginia is a little different. The state was pretty blue not that long ago and Manchin had relatives in state politics which gave him some serious name recognition. Its not unlike Kentucky with their gov.
I guess I can see scenario where a lot of the Cleveland working class suburbs end up vote Trump and Brown, seems like a real Parma thing to do.
It's weird, but it happens. Brown's becoming Manchin-esque (but a force for more good). In 2012 Manchin won by 24 points, while Romney won by 27 -- an insane swing.
West Virginia is a little different. The state was pretty blue not that long ago and Manchin had relatives in state politics which gave him some serious name recognition. Its not unlike Kentucky with their gov.
I guess I can see scenario where a lot of the Cleveland working class suburbs end up vote Trump and Brown, seems like a real Parma thing to do.
Ohio voted for Obama twice. WV hasn’t gone blue in the Presidential election since 1996.
Upcoming Shows: 10/18 - Jason Isbell and the 400 Unit & Iris DeMent @ Ryman Auditorium 11/8 - Goose @ The Andrew J. Brady Center 11/13 - Bobby Weir & Wolf Bros w/ The Wolfpack & The Cincinnati Pops Orchestra @ Cincinnati Music Hall 2/14 - Alan Walker @ The Fillmore Detroit 4/15 - Ben Folds w/ The Cincinnati Pops Orchestra @ Cincinnati Music Hall
West Virginia is a little different. The state was pretty blue not that long ago and Manchin had relatives in state politics which gave him some serious name recognition. Its not unlike Kentucky with their gov.
I guess I can see scenario where a lot of the Cleveland working class suburbs end up vote Trump and Brown, seems like a real Parma thing to do.
Ohio voted for Obama twice. WV hasn’t gone blue in the Presidential election since 1996.
Yes, Ohio was always swing-y until recently. I was just pointing out that WV isn't one of the deep south states that voted for Wallace and then went GOP every time since. For a state that is that very R leaning and doesn't have any large urban areas, they do have some precedent voting for democrats, they just have to be THEIR democrats.
A very effective ad indeed, even if it's horrifying...But that's the point. America needs to wake up and snap out of Trump's b.s. (the MAGA folks that is, and the mainstream media that constantly carries his water).
Also this Arlington stunt him and his Staff pulled is fucking atrocious. I really hope him and his Staff, especially the ones that assaulted the cemetery's groundskeeper, are fully held accountable. Fuck 'em all.