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That's a low probability play, though. Obviously it could happen.
I mean only three people make it to day 5 so 8/11 chance it happens.
on the flip side, as town shrinks, the odds of the whack and the oracle guess being the same increase so I might actually be in favor of a reveal here.
I agree but if we do end up putting oracle in an exile position I’d imagine they would go silently and we would get their info the next day. In later days it would make more sense to reveal because it would be harder to be proved wrong about it.
Walk through this with me though and tell me where the holes in the thought are:
- every townie knows their role (so I know I am town) - Jortles was town - BKB was likely *not* inspector, and likely *not* oracle
So, I am proposing that both the Inspector and Oracle reveal themselves. Here is my hypothetical example:
- Jortles is Player A, who is town. - BKB is Player B, who is unknown but likely town based on odds. - Player C is yourself - for my purpose, I am Player C (put yourself in here if you are town or trying to convince us you are town) - Player D is Inspector - Player E is Inspector's given name - Player F is Oracle - Player G is the Oracle's name revealed upon their death - Player H is Inspector's N1 guess (which hopefully was not Jortles) - Player I is unknown - Player J is unknown - Player K is unknown
That is 8 of the 11 players in the game (figuring that BKB is town, and if he is mafia, not a big deal).
So, in my thinking, Oracle reveals themselves and we exile them D2 to get their name's role. We also are coordinating between inspector and oracle to make sure oracle does not ask about inspector, the given name, or the N1 guess.
Inspector reveals now, with a given and a N1 guess, revealing three roles (including themselves as inspector). This is at a minimum 4 roles and possibly 5.
Town then exiles given name D3. N3 is a townie who is whacked and whose role is probably known (through inspector N1 guess or oracle role reveal).
D4 - 5 players left. At least one of these players is a confirmed townie, and another is yourself (a confirmed townie for those of us on the good side), with 3 players left and two of them mafia.
I think this is the strategy the town should pursue. But please, poke any holes in it that you see.
Assuming both inspector and oracle are alive, why would we not exile the given now and oracle D3? Then we can confirm that the oracle and inspector have no overlap with names
No, the town would have to exile oracle today. We can't take the chance on waiting, IMO.
then we likely have to go 3/3 no? Assuming BKB was town and that’s also heavily assuming inspector is alive.
That's why inspector would have to come out with their info as well. To guarantee we get a D3 mafia. We have virtually no voting data to go on, so everything we generate is going to be given by the inspector, or have to be townies making gut reads.
went back to the OP to confirm: we get their submitted name regardless of how they die. in potent's post, he does explicitly suggest us exiling oracle today after they reveal, but what if it turns out that their name (that gets revealed) was jostles or is whoever gets whacked tonight? or is their name given to town as soon as they die, before it turns to Night?
sorry, i still just have some big questions around this role, im realizing
they get a new guess each day, they'd just need to make a good guess prior to d4 when they get exiled
Walk through this with me though and tell me where the holes in the thought are:
- every townie knows their role (so I know I am town) - Jortles was town - BKB was likely *not* inspector, and likely *not* oracle
So, I am proposing that both the Inspector and Oracle reveal themselves. Here is my hypothetical example:
- Jortles is Player A, who is town. - BKB is Player B, who is unknown but likely town based on odds. - Player C is yourself - for my purpose, I am Player C (put yourself in here if you are town or trying to convince us you are town) - Player D is Inspector - Player E is Inspector's given name - Player F is Oracle - Player G is the Oracle's name revealed upon their death - Player H is Inspector's N1 guess (which hopefully was not Jortles) - Player I is unknown - Player J is unknown - Player K is unknown
That is 8 of the 11 players in the game (figuring that BKB is town, and if he is mafia, not a big deal).
So, in my thinking, Oracle reveals themselves and we exile them D2 to get their name's role. We also are coordinating between inspector and oracle to make sure oracle does not ask about inspector, the given name, or the N1 guess.
Inspector reveals now, with a given and a N1 guess, revealing three roles (including themselves as inspector). This is at a minimum 4 roles and possibly 5.
Town then exiles given name D3. N3 is a townie who is whacked and whose role is probably known (through inspector N1 guess or oracle role reveal).
D4 - 5 players left. At least one of these players is a confirmed townie, and another is yourself (a confirmed townie for those of us on the good side), with 3 players left and two of them mafia.
I think this is the strategy the town should pursue. But please, poke any holes in it that you see.
Assuming both inspector and oracle are alive, why would we not exile the given now and oracle D3? Then we can confirm that the oracle and inspector have no overlap with names
I mean only three people make it to day 5 so 8/11 chance it happens.
on the flip side, as town shrinks, the odds of the whack and the oracle guess being the same increase so I might actually be in favor of a reveal here.
if oracle makes d5 though it's a game ender. sort of think that should be the goal for oracle
Assuming both inspector and oracle are alive, why would we not exile the given now and oracle D3? Then we can confirm that the oracle and inspector have no overlap with names
Good question. We might want to do that.
oracle has already made a guess though and could be whacked
on the flip side, as town shrinks, the odds of the whack and the oracle guess being the same increase so I might actually be in favor of a reveal here.
if oracle makes d5 though it's a game ender. sort of think that should be the goal for oracle
if oracle makes it to d5, isnt that the worst possible outcome? we don't ever learn a role from them if they never die, right?
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
on the flip side, as town shrinks, the odds of the whack and the oracle guess being the same increase so I might actually be in favor of a reveal here.
if oracle makes d5 though it's a game ender. sort of think that should be the goal for oracle
Post by Jeremy Fragrance on Apr 14, 2021 13:06:34 GMT -5
I'm inspector. Rummy is mafia. Tranter is town. Had nothing to go off with my N1 guess so I went with Tranter because he went after me kinda weirdly D1. Need to reread today to see if there's any connections to Rummy.
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
Damn y'all move quick. I was typing up my thoughts on Potent's strategy and refresh the page to a double reveal lol. I'm not sure this was the move but it is what it is. We certainly have more to go off of now at least.
Do you want to be exiled today or should it be Rummy today?
We shouldn't exile the Oracle, at least not yet. Absolutely no need to do the Mafia's work for them, better to keep confirmed townies alive. It might be a necessary D4 kill to get the Tranter's info but we're not at that point yet. Better to play with confirmed townies alive - it leaves less wrong options for tomorrow's exile.
