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Agreed , and that’s why I’m taking the route you just mentioned there: group of no votes.
It basically feels like d1 all over again right now which sucks
Why would it matter?
why would what matter? the fact that this feels like another d1? it matters a lot--we are working with less operable information than we usually are d2 since i think a good number of us don't feel confident the whack was a real attempt at getting inspector, unless you're maf and were worried jostles had your name since he voted for you...but i am putting that scenario as less likely than misdirection/whack-that-leads-nowhere at this point
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
Post by potentpotables on Apr 14, 2021 9:44:08 GMT -5
I'm trying to think through a strategy that gives the town the best chance to win given the seemingly dire situation we are in now. Does anyone have an idea? I'm hesitant to post my thoughts because people will think it is sus, but also I might be convinced it's our only chance.
I don't feel like it's that doom and gloom. d1 routinely ends w two town dying, I think we can assume just that jortles wasn't oracle, but we got a full round of voting before everyone realized thor wasn't coming
why would what matter? the fact that this feels like another d1? it matters a lot--we are working with less operable information than we usually are d2 since i think a good number of us don't feel confident the whack was a real attempt at getting inspector, unless you're maf and were worried jostles had your name since he voted for you...but i am putting that scenario as less likely than misdirection/whack-that-leads-nowhere at this point
I mean that it feeling similar to day 1 shouldn’t matter. Don’t think someone being in the runoff d1 has any bearing on their role, so it doesn’t really matter if it’s similar or different
OK, but it's better for the town to exile mafia, seeing as how we get 5 chances to get 3 and we've blown one.
I agree but if we do end up putting oracle in an exile position I’d imagine they would go silently and we would get their info the next day. In later days it would make more sense to reveal because it would be harder to be proved wrong about it.
Walk through this with me though and tell me where the holes in the thought are:
- every townie knows their role (so I know I am town) - Jortles was town - BKB was likely *not* inspector, and likely *not* oracle
So, I am proposing that both the Inspector and Oracle reveal themselves. Here is my hypothetical example:
- Jortles is Player A, who is town. - BKB is Player B, who is unknown but likely town based on odds. - Player C is yourself - for my purpose, I am Player C (put yourself in here if you are town or trying to convince us you are town) - Player D is Inspector - Player E is Inspector's given name - Player F is Oracle - Player G is the Oracle's name revealed upon their death - Player H is Inspector's N1 guess (which hopefully was not Jortles) - Player I is unknown - Player J is unknown - Player K is unknown
That is 8 of the 11 players in the game (figuring that BKB is town, and if he is mafia, not a big deal).
So, in my thinking, Oracle reveals themselves and we exile them D2 to get their name's role. We also are coordinating between inspector and oracle to make sure oracle does not ask about inspector, the given name, or the N1 guess.
Inspector reveals now, with a given and a N1 guess, revealing three roles (including themselves as inspector). This is at a minimum 4 roles and possibly 5.
Town then exiles given name D3. N3 is a townie who is whacked and whose role is probably known (through inspector N1 guess or oracle role reveal).
D4 - 5 players left. At least one of these players is a confirmed townie, and another is yourself (a confirmed townie for those of us on the good side), with 3 players left and two of them mafia.
I think this is the strategy the town should pursue. But please, poke any holes in it that you see.
I agree but if we do end up putting oracle in an exile position I’d imagine they would go silently and we would get their info the next day. In later days it would make more sense to reveal because it would be harder to be proved wrong about it.
Walk through this with me though and tell me where the holes in the thought are:
- every townie knows their role (so I know I am town) - Jortles was town - BKB was likely *not* inspector, and likely *not* oracle
So, I am proposing that both the Inspector and Oracle reveal themselves. Here is my hypothetical example:
- Jortles is Player A, who is town. - BKB is Player B, who is unknown but likely town based on odds. - Player C is yourself - for my purpose, I am Player C (put yourself in here if you are town or trying to convince us you are town) - Player D is Inspector - Player E is Inspector's given name - Player F is Oracle - Player G is the Oracle's name revealed upon their death - Player H is Inspector's N1 guess (which hopefully was not Jortles) - Player I is unknown - Player J is unknown - Player K is unknown
That is 8 of the 11 players in the game (figuring that BKB is town, and if he is mafia, not a big deal).
So, in my thinking, Oracle reveals themselves and we exile them D2 to get their name's role. We also are coordinating between inspector and oracle to make sure oracle does not ask about inspector, the given name, or the N1 guess.
Inspector reveals now, with a given and a N1 guess, revealing three roles (including themselves as inspector). This is at a minimum 4 roles and possibly 5.
Town then exiles given name D3. N3 is a townie who is whacked and whose role is probably known (through inspector N1 guess or oracle role reveal).
D4 - 5 players left. At least one of these players is a confirmed townie, and another is yourself (a confirmed townie for those of us on the good side), with 3 players left and two of them mafia.
I think this is the strategy the town should pursue. But please, poke any holes in it that you see.
Just my opinion, but I think even if oracle reveals they should NOT tell us their name.
There are things about this approach that I like but a couple elements that concern me:
1. Jostles *could* have been inspector, and BKB *could* have had any role--Inspector, Maf, Oracle. If one of them had a role, especially if the inspector role, then this gives a wide open space for Maf to fake and get a lot of bang for their buck with it.
2. Even if neither was inspector, Maf still could beat inspector to the punch here and fake reveal, and real inspector would either have to counter (and create a lot of confusion on how to proceed) or have to hang back and hope to make it to d3 and be believed then--knowing that town had proceeded here in d2 with incorrect info, from the maf's fake reveal. Again, muddying everything up.
Those are the two big concerns that come to mind--am getting on a work call now, will think on it some more
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
Walk through this with me though and tell me where the holes in the thought are:
- every townie knows their role (so I know I am town) - Jortles was town - BKB was likely *not* inspector, and likely *not* oracle
So, I am proposing that both the Inspector and Oracle reveal themselves. Here is my hypothetical example:
- Jortles is Player A, who is town. - BKB is Player B, who is unknown but likely town based on odds. - Player C is yourself - for my purpose, I am Player C (put yourself in here if you are town or trying to convince us you are town) - Player D is Inspector - Player E is Inspector's given name - Player F is Oracle - Player G is the Oracle's name revealed upon their death - Player H is Inspector's N1 guess (which hopefully was not Jortles) - Player I is unknown - Player J is unknown - Player K is unknown
That is 8 of the 11 players in the game (figuring that BKB is town, and if he is mafia, not a big deal).
So, in my thinking, Oracle reveals themselves and we exile them D2 to get their name's role. We also are coordinating between inspector and oracle to make sure oracle does not ask about inspector, the given name, or the N1 guess.
Inspector reveals now, with a given and a N1 guess, revealing three roles (including themselves as inspector). This is at a minimum 4 roles and possibly 5.
Town then exiles given name D3. N3 is a townie who is whacked and whose role is probably known (through inspector N1 guess or oracle role reveal).
D4 - 5 players left. At least one of these players is a confirmed townie, and another is yourself (a confirmed townie for those of us on the good side), with 3 players left and two of them mafia.
I think this is the strategy the town should pursue. But please, poke any holes in it that you see.
Just my opinion, but I think even if oracle reveals they should NOT tell us their name.
I didn't say they should, did I? I'm rereading this to make sure. I actually think my original idea was to crowdsource it, but at the very least we need to make sure there is no overlap between Inspector and Oracle powers. If Inspector guessed X night one and knows they are town, we don't want Oracle having that as their name.
Just my opinion, but I think even if oracle reveals they should NOT tell us their name.
I didn't say they should, did I? I'm rereading this to make sure. I actually think my original idea was to crowdsource it, but at the very least we need to make sure there is no overlap between Inspector and Oracle powers. If Inspector guessed X night one and knows they are town, we don't want Oracle having that as their name.
Oh I wasn’t disagreeing, just adding on. Indifferent on the plan as a whole
I didn't say they should, did I? I'm rereading this to make sure. I actually think my original idea was to crowdsource it, but at the very least we need to make sure there is no overlap between Inspector and Oracle powers. If Inspector guessed X night one and knows they are town, we don't want Oracle having that as their name.
Oh I wasn’t disagreeing, just adding on. Indifferent on the plan as a whole
Oh, OK - in one iteration of the post I did say that, but I thought I took it out, which is why I asked. There was no attitude behind me saying that.
There are things about this approach that I like but a couple elements that concern me:
1. Jostles *could* have been inspector, and BKB *could* have had any role--Inspector, Maf, Oracle. If one of them had a role, especially if the inspector role, then this gives a wide open space for Maf to fake and get a lot of bang for their buck with it.
2. Even if neither was inspector, Maf still could beat inspector to the punch here and fake reveal, and real inspector would either have to counter (and create a lot of confusion on how to proceed) or have to hang back and hope to make it to d3 and be believed then--knowing that town had proceeded here in d2 with incorrect info, from the maf's fake reveal. Again, muddying everything up.
Those are the two big concerns that come to mind--am getting on a work call now, will think on it some more
If Josts was inspector, or BKB had a good role for us, we are kinda boned anyway but it would be nice to know we can't wait for the cavalry to come riding in.
Just my opinion, but I think even if oracle reveals they should NOT tell us their name.
I didn't say they should, did I? I'm rereading this to make sure. I actually think my original idea was to crowdsource it, but at the very least we need to make sure there is no overlap between Inspector and Oracle powers. If Inspector guessed X night one and knows they are town, we don't want Oracle having that as their name.
you were kind of losing me a bit with the post but this overlap bit makes sense
And I think mafia faking inspector is incredibly useful to us.
If we got two reveals, would Oracle then set out to guess the name of one of the reveals to confirm which one is real--or would they try to guess someone else entirely?
I'm not against this idea but did want to raise the two things that came to mind as potential barriers, or speedbumps at least, in the strategy. I do think ultimately it'll still benefit town to get the amount of info that we would from this approach
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
And I think mafia faking inspector is incredibly useful to us.
If we got two reveals, would Oracle then set out to guess the name of one of the reveals to confirm which one is real--or would they try to guess someone else entirely?
I'm not against this idea but did want to raise the two things that came to mind as potential barriers, or speedbumps at least, in the strategy. I do think ultimately it'll still benefit town to get the amount of info that we would from this approach
I would suggest crowdsourcing that question if it comes to fruition.
Yeah I’m gonna say oracle shouldn’t reveal. If I’m mafia, I’m gonna make town exile oracle so I get an extra whack essentially.
I got to say I’m kinda leaning this way as well, just because it would be funny for maf to whack Oracle and throw a wrench into whatever mafias scheming out of the blue.
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
Yeah I’m gonna say oracle shouldn’t reveal. If I’m mafia, I’m gonna make town exile oracle so I get an extra whack essentially.
I got to say I’m kinda leaning this way as well, just because it would be funny for maf to whack Oracle and throw a wrench into whatever mafias scheming out of the blue.
That's a low probability play, though. Obviously it could happen.
I got to say I’m kinda leaning this way as well, just because it would be funny for maf to whack Oracle and throw a wrench into whatever mafias scheming out of the blue.
That's a low probability play, though. Obviously it could happen.
I mean only three people make it to day 5 so 8/11 chance it happens.
went back to the OP to confirm: we get their submitted name regardless of how they die. in potent's post, he does explicitly suggest us exiling oracle today after they reveal, but what if it turns out that their name (that gets revealed) was jostles or is whoever gets whacked tonight? or is their name given to town as soon as they die, before it turns to Night?
sorry, i still just have some big questions around this role, im realizing
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
