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Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
Round One Jortles - 6 (Potent*, Dan*, Theo*, Otter*, Tranter*, ZIG*) Otter - 2 (Jortles, KPO*) KPO - 1 (Pablo)
Tranter > Pablo ZIG > Jortles Jortles > Otter Dan > Theo KPO > Otter Pablo > KPO Theo > Dan Tranter > Pablo > KPO Potent > Theo Otter > Dan ZIG > Jortles > Potent Potent > Theo > Jortles Dan > Theo > Jortles Theo > Dan > Jortles Otter > Dan > Jortles Tranter > KPO > Jortles ZIG > Potent > Jortles
Post by trantsgiving on May 5, 2021 15:54:53 GMT -5
either way I'm stacking and I think some of Rummy's post that people thought were fishing for inspector might've come across to mafia as her wanting Silver to fake. If so, potent is probably the best bet here.
Post by trantsgiving on May 5, 2021 15:58:06 GMT -5
what's everyone's take on an oracle reveal? should we get one more confirmed town before they likely whack otter or should we hold off and hope mafia whacks oracle N4? because I think they are more likely to keep oracle alive.
Post by trantsgiving on May 5, 2021 16:00:19 GMT -5
actually quad post, oracle should not reveal if they are not at risk of going here. Them being confirmed town today wouldn't really change the course of today imo and we could stroll into D5 with a confirmed mafia if we get there and oracle gets whacked and guesses right which would end the game.
Ok just finished a full reread (what a doozie). Tranter is still my strongest town read, so I'm going to assume he's town here. Thus meaning there is two maf in the grouping of pablo, kpo, zig, and potent.
KPO - 2 (Pablo, Tranter) Otter - 2 (Jortles, KPO) Potent - 1 (ZIG) Theo - 2 (Dan, Potent) Dan - 2 (Theo, otter)
Going to assume here that the combo is not pablo, jortles, zig given that there probably isn't a 3-0 split day one in a likely town v town final round. This would imply there is at minimum 1 maf between kpo and potent (and think this is the best direction to go in today). Between the two I'm think that kpo is more suspicious, he has been quieter than usual, and the potent and jortles confrontation makes me feel better about potent. The pablo, zig grouping is harder to read but think if there is one maf in the it's more likely zig since it fits the narritive that there was 1 active maf at the end of day one, and pablo while not super active doesn't read as sus to me.
All in all I'd say I'm sus of kpo and potent. Unknown on zig, unknown town lean on pablo.
How does the Oracle reveal work? They come out as Oracle and then we exile them to get a name?
We don't get a name as mafia all the time when oracle is whacked or exiled. The oracle just guesses a name and when they are whacked / exiled the role of the name they guessed is revealed.
So let's say you're oracle and you guess me. You get either whacked or exiled. At the beginning of the next day, JTR will say: "Day 4 has begun. Tranter was town."
Because of that, exiling oracle is collectively known as a bad idea. The best case is that mafia unknowingly whacks them, we save ourselves an exile and get a role.
If they reveal, then we get them as confirmed town and either mafia takes a risk and whacks them or they stay alive until d5.
Post by trantsgiving on May 5, 2021 16:27:44 GMT -5
that's why I said oracle shouldn't reveal if they aren't in some danger here. It would confirm a name as town that we weren't going to exile anyway and it makes it a lot less likely that mafia whacks them.
Ok just finished a full reread (what a doozie). Tranter is still my strongest town read, so I'm going to assume he's town here. Thus meaning there is two maf in the grouping of pablo, kpo, zig, and potent.
KPO - 2 (Pablo, Tranter) Otter - 2 (Jortles, KPO) Potent - 1 (ZIG) Theo - 2 (Dan, Potent) Dan - 2 (Theo, otter)
Going to assume here that the combo is not pablo, jortles, zig given that there probably isn't a 3-0 split day one in a likely town v town final round. This would imply there is at minimum 1 maf between kpo and potent (and think this is the best direction to go in today). Between the two I'm think that kpo is more suspicious, he has been quieter than usual, and the potent and jortles confrontation makes me feel better about potent. The pablo, zig grouping is harder to read but think if there is one maf in the it's more likely zig since it fits the narritive that there was 1 active maf at the end of day one, and pablo while not super active doesn't read as sus to me.
All in all I'd say I'm sus of kpo and potent. Unknown on zig, unknown town lean on pablo.
Dan > KPO
Unless someone believes all three mafia voted for Silver, Potent and KPO are the only 2 unknown votes that voted Tranter. The other 3 (Otter, Theo, Silver) we can eliminate out.
So either 2-1 split means at a minimum 1 (if not both) of Potent / KPO are Mafia.
Ok just finished a full reread (what a doozie). Tranter is still my strongest town read, so I'm going to assume he's town here. Thus meaning there is two maf in the grouping of pablo, kpo, zig, and potent.
KPO - 2 (Pablo, Tranter) Otter - 2 (Jortles, KPO) Potent - 1 (ZIG) Theo - 2 (Dan, Potent) Dan - 2 (Theo, otter)
Going to assume here that the combo is not pablo, jortles, zig given that there probably isn't a 3-0 split day one in a likely town v town final round. This would imply there is at minimum 1 maf between kpo and potent (and think this is the best direction to go in today). Between the two I'm think that kpo is more suspicious, he has been quieter than usual, and the potent and jortles confrontation makes me feel better about potent. The pablo, zig grouping is harder to read but think if there is one maf in the it's more likely zig since it fits the narritive that there was 1 active maf at the end of day one, and pablo while not super active doesn't read as sus to me.
All in all I'd say I'm sus of kpo and potent. Unknown on zig, unknown town lean on pablo.
Dan > KPO
Unless someone believes all three mafia voted for Silver, Potent and KPO are the only 2 unknown votes that voted Tranter. The other 3 (Otter, Theo, Silver) we can eliminate out.
So either 2-1 split means at a minimum 1 (if not both) of Potent / KPO are Mafia.
Post by potentpotables on May 5, 2021 18:03:43 GMT -5
Yeah, frankly, I don't blame the town one bit for getting rid of me and KPO. I know I'm town, but you have no way of knowing that, and using the splits is a good way to get at least the second.
Yeah, frankly, I don't blame the town one bit for getting rid of me and KPO. I know I'm town, but you have no way of knowing that, and using the splits is a good way to get at least the second.
Potent > KPO
instead of ahhhh shucks, don’t you have a theory???
otter is gonna have the deciding vote here and that's best case scenario
I’m doing a full reread as we speak. Gonna take me a bit because I’m juggling a couple things. Can someone explain why everyone is so quick to clear Dan in the meanwhile? I haven’t gotten to that part yet (I’m on page 6...)
