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good call -- the otter/browell/rooloo trio for a runoff felt off
What felt off about it?
I like the move because of all the silence over the weekend, but wondering if there's any other reason you felt this way.
it is early days but Otter isn't feeling sus like he did so immediately in the prior game; not saying I've got a town read on him already, but I am not feeling worried bout him right now.
Browell seems same as last game, too. So it just didn't feel like the best runoff. Also it was three newer players/ones who don't play as often with us, so I'm glad we've got MD in there now
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
I like the move because of all the silence over the weekend, but wondering if there's any other reason you felt this way.
it is early days but Otter isn't feeling sus like he did so immediately in the prior game; not saying I've got a town read on him already, but I am not feeling worried bout him right now.
Browell seems same as last game, too. So it just didn't feel like the best runoff. Also it was three newer players/ones who don't play as often with us, so I'm glad we've got MD in there now
definitely concerned how I’ll ever succeed in future games because you’ve got me so well figured out. But for now, I’ll take it.
Last four voters - Browell, LLL, Maddog, Otter No votes - Jortles, Pablo
Odd game where we had very few stacks coming out the gates, and need to do some work to get to a traditional runoff.
Has a correlation between who has voted last, those with no votes and Mafia been found? I was wondering this last game. I did look at the last few games, and I can't find much rhyme or reason to it. It goes from 1 Mafia with a final 4 vote and one with votes on them, to 2 Mafia with a final vote and 2 with votes on them, to no Mafia voting in the final 4 and 2 with votes on them, to 1 Mafia in the final 4 and all 3 Mafia with votes on the. I'm just not seeing a pattern, but I only looked at a handful of games. Trying to decide if this is something I should be considering as I play out the game. I am always in the last 4 votes, as it turns out, regardless of role.
One thing that I did note when I read all through those old games during last game is that we are more likely to have two Mafia in first round run-off if we have 4 or 5 folks in the run-off. The last 7 non special games, we had at least one Mafia in every first round run-off. If we had 4 or more people in the run off, 4 out of the 6 times we had 2 Mafia in there. Everyone knows this, but it was interesting to see the numbers back it up, even if the sample size is small.
We're all a mess of paradoxes. Believing in things we know can't be true. We walk around carrying feelings too complicated and contradictory to express. But when it all becomes too big, and words aren't enough to help get it all out, there's always music.
Last four voters - Browell, LLL, Maddog, Otter No votes - Jortles, Pablo
Odd game where we had very few stacks coming out the gates, and need to do some work to get to a traditional runoff.
Has a correlation between who has voted last, those with no votes and Mafia been found? I was wondering this last game. I did look at the last few games, and I can't find much rhyme or reason to it. It goes from 1 Mafia with a final 4 vote and one with votes on them, to 2 Mafia with a final vote and 2 with votes on them, to no Mafia voting in the final 4 and 2 with votes on them, to 1 Mafia in the final 4 and all 3 Mafia with votes on the. I'm just not seeing a pattern, but I only looked at a handful of games. Trying to decide if this is something I should be considering as I play out the game. I am always in the last 4 votes, as it turns out, regardless of role.
One thing that I did note when I read all through those old games during last game is that we are more likely to have two Mafia in first round run-off if we have 4 or 5 folks in the run-off. The last 7 non special games, we had at least one Mafia in every first round run-off. If we had 4 or more people in the run off, 4 out of the 6 times we had 2 Mafia in there. Everyone knows this, but it was interesting to see the numbers back it up, even if the sample size is small.
Picking any 4 players at random likely has 1 maf in it by pure odds
Post by potentpotables on Jan 31, 2022 12:49:53 GMT -5
The last four voters thing came about after discussion, a long time ago in game terms, about the likelihood of mafia in a random group of 4 - odds say it's 1.33. When looking for a random way to come up with a group of four, last four voters was one way that was done. I don't want to credit myself if I didn't come up with it, I honestly don't remember - I may have but it could have been someone else - but I certainly have become a user of it. I do think that people interpret it wrongly - it's only a random way to come up with a group of four, nothing more or less.
I will say that anecdotally it feels like the "last four voters" theory gets the inspector just as much, if not more than, mafia.
I find the "no initial D1 votes" theory more compelling, personally.
We're all a mess of paradoxes. Believing in things we know can't be true. We walk around carrying feelings too complicated and contradictory to express. But when it all becomes too big, and words aren't enough to help get it all out, there's always music.
Thank you. Jortles fully leading that effort by voting for me and then getting Rummy to follow him. Either a failure of a snipe by a fellow townie or trying to stir the pot as mafia. We can revisit this later
Has a correlation between who has voted last, those with no votes and Mafia been found? I was wondering this last game. I did look at the last few games, and I can't find much rhyme or reason to it. It goes from 1 Mafia with a final 4 vote and one with votes on them, to 2 Mafia with a final vote and 2 with votes on them, to no Mafia voting in the final 4 and 2 with votes on them, to 1 Mafia in the final 4 and all 3 Mafia with votes on the. I'm just not seeing a pattern, but I only looked at a handful of games. Trying to decide if this is something I should be considering as I play out the game. I am always in the last 4 votes, as it turns out, regardless of role.
One thing that I did note when I read all through those old games during last game is that we are more likely to have two Mafia in first round run-off if we have 4 or 5 folks in the run-off. The last 7 non special games, we had at least one Mafia in every first round run-off. If we had 4 or more people in the run off, 4 out of the 6 times we had 2 Mafia in there. Everyone knows this, but it was interesting to see the numbers back it up, even if the sample size is small.
Picking any 4 players at random likely has 1 maf in it by pure odds
ive done it a number of times and it is more likely to be 2 than 0 iirc (not the math theory the way the votes actually shook out)
Post by Jim Watson on Jan 31, 2022 13:33:21 GMT -5
Me, Rummy, and Maddog are mafia together. I foolishly tried too hard to distance from Maddog with an overexplained initial vote. The wise Jortles quickly noticed and switched his voteto me and convinced Rummy to come along. However, Jortles didn't realize that Rummy was my mafia teammate and that this would be an excellent opportunity to create distance by siding with him. Later, Rummy decided to further distance herself by applauding the brilliant addition of Maddog into the mafia runoff. Notably, the previous runoff of Rooloo, Otter, and Browell felt off. Now we have 2 mafia in the runoff and Jortles has pretty much won the game for town. We should make tshirts with his avatar and in bold font above the picture, they will read "The Sniper"
lol rummy's post is all bullshit "glad we got maddog in there" ok
my ENTIRE post is bullshit?
where i explained that otter and browell dont seem off to me, so I didn't love that runoff with them both in it...and then clearly said that I was glad you got in there because it was about to be 3 newer players/ones who don't play as often. you were the only "oldhead" with multiple votes at that point who was easy to switch in (for otter, it ended up being).
but ok sure, yes, i'm just BSing all the way thruuuuuuu
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
Me, Rummy, and Maddog are mafia together. I foolishly tried too hard to distance from Maddog with an overexplained initial vote. The wise Jortles quickly noticed and switched his voteto me and convinced Rummy to come along. However, Jortles didn't realize that Rummy was my mafia teammate and that this would be an excellent opportunity to create distance by siding with him. Later, Rummy decided to further distance herself by applauding the brilliant addition of Maddog into the mafia runoff. Notably, the previous runoff of Rooloo, Otter, and Browell felt off. Now we have 2 mafia in the runoff and Jortles has pretty much won the game for town. We should make tshirts with his avatar and in bold font above the picture, they will read "The Sniper"
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
it was really over explaining and from my read doesn't really answer why the runoff felt "off" to you
there's a difference in something feeling like it's done intentionally and something being less fair/fun, but you sort of brought it up as they're the same
Me, Rummy, and Maddog are mafia together. I foolishly tried too hard to distance from Maddog with an overexplained initial vote. The wise Jortles quickly noticed and switched his voteto me and convinced Rummy to come along. However, Jortles didn't realize that Rummy was my mafia teammate and that this would be an excellent opportunity to create distance by siding with him. Later, Rummy decided to further distance herself by applauding the brilliant addition of Maddog into the mafia runoff. Notably, the previous runoff of Rooloo, Otter, and Browell felt off. Now we have 2 mafia in the runoff and Jortles has pretty much won the game for town. We should make tshirts with his avatar and in bold font above the picture, they will read "The Sniper"
Can you respond to Jortles in a more sincere manner? I mean, obviously you're saying you're not town here, but I'd appreciate more of a straightforward effort of explanation to see if it vibes with my thinking.
it was really over explaining and from my read doesn't really answer why the runoff felt "off" to you
there's a difference in something feeling like it's done intentionally and something being less fair/fun, but you sort of brought it up as they're the same
love how when i get specific in an answer, it is overexplaining -- if i'd kept it vague, i would've been "skirting" the issue.
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
