Mafia 173 - Christmas Cheer

you’re just going along w this??

Please will someone give a goddamn reason. I’m going to bed so annoyed right now. Sure just kill one of the few townies trying right now. Good luck, all.

huh? I was on him all of day 2, not just when it came down to the wire. I didn’t suddenly come into d3 here with a new opinion on the matter. The Samp whack pointed directly at him. It seemed super likely he was Maf.

This whack points at him too. Thus I feel even more convinced he was likely mafia.

But I am also planning to re read tomorrow morning with an eye towards the notion that some shady shit is going on, and that Maf is in a better position than we think they might be right now bc something feels fishy as fuck

woke up still annoyed at how this Day has started (MD and Teddy both throwing out a vote completely sans explanation is just piss poor d3 play, and Town is definitively gonna lose if this is how it is gonna go from here on out), but i still want to win. am gonna go back through today with an eye towards the scenario in which the whacks DONT point to jortles because we are already well aware of the ways that they DO.

but in the scenario where jortles wasnt actually mafia, my guess is that all three mafia haven't been probed at much. hence the otter whack. because he was pretty quiet/passive, and so for that to be the n2 whack, my inclination is that either: 1) jortles is indeed maf, and it wasn't a risky whack at all since it points to a now-dead mafioso, or 2) all of the maf have been able to coast by without too much suspicion cast on them, so it is something more nuanced in both the samp and otter whacks that point to them. also 3) cinci could have been maf, not jortles, but in that case i still think the other two must be well hidden, so the same logic applies as i go back through to look for that

Why the fuck are we putting rummy at 3 already? Seems sus

just read through d1, gonna do d2 later after some work calls.

ok so here's my thinking: if jortles wasn't maf, the fact that samp was whacked n1 means that likely TWO of the mafia weren't really mentioned as sus or probed at. and weren't in the final runoff (cinci v jortles). from d1--of folks still alive--that would be teddy, pinky, MD, dan, browell and cum. samp did have a nuanced interaction with cum and MD of that list, however. 

it is also notable how people jumped off dan rapidly, to the point that im thinking if he was maf, his team wouldnt be looking at someone who might have dan's name for their n1 whack. they'd look elsewhere.

from the list of teddy, pinky, MD, dan, browell, and cum--most of them still haven't been probed at much at all. coming to mind from d1 before i reread: browell was, so im actually gonna move off of him i think. cum was yesterday by jortles a lot, but he dead by exile, so it isnt like he'd be an available whack. i raised suspicions over cum but ended up voting for jortles, so i doubt maf would look at me as potential for inspo w cum's name. 

if jortles wasn't maf, i think there are three in the above list of five. if he (or cinci) was maf, then at least we know today won't end if we get it wrong. 

i have an idea of where i want to move but want to do full review of d2 first.

I think it’s pretty clear jortles was maf

it is very likely, agreed.

what do you think about the notion that the other two are well hidden/havent been probed at much? if jortles was maf and samp was whacked for his jorts comments, i feel like maf going for otter n2 bc of HIS jorts comments too means that they weren't sure where else to look bc their other two have been coasting by just fine

I’m on mobile so sorry if that’s rough

Soft deadline of 2pm because most haven’t voted and I put it up late

yup. and that comment felt more pointed at MD between the two, imo. it came right after MD's vote

rummy is clearly spiraling that's ok. its 9 am, everyone chill.

to reiterate what I laid out my thoughts on d1

mafia is probably one of jortles or rummy. that is occams razor looking at the two whacks.

neither whack is really a, oh they named a bunch of people, type of situation. I've laid out my thoughts on Samp, and with otter I feel like there could be more subtly in his game, but he's basically posting the same way Samp did.

if neither was inspector, mafia is obviously fucked, but I would assume that one of them are just based on how things have played out. I'm still leaning Samp and otter just keyed in on jortles, mainly because otter didn't really have much of a 'lets leave this person I guessed as town alone' vibe, while also being pretty anti jortles, and less so rummy. if otter was inspector I don't think he had rummy as a nam but his tone reads like he might have guessed her.

he does call out quieter players by tone, not by name, but teddy/browell/pink any of those dudes could be the #2 or 3. but I think its just safe to get rummy out of the picture because if she is mafia and survives multiple days that's bad.

this doesnt add up. his tone read as he didnt have my name as given but guessed me, and learned i was maf? why would he push any less directly in d2 on a name he learned n1 compared to his given? and better yet, why would he not come out with his two names? highly risky to try to make it d3 when you've got 2 out of 3 confirmed mafia names to offer town in d2. 

rummy > MD

he might have guessed her* n2, I did leave that out

really wish everyone didn’t pile on rummy so quick bc i feel like that narrowed shit down to way too quick and now we’ll really be left with only rummy and MD, with a very real possibility of town losing if we make the wrong decision today

anyways!!!

pink > MD