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The math is interesting because the raw count in this case is more important than the percentage but you also have to consider that you are still estimating turnout in the general and that at least a percentage of those that vote uncommitted would actually vote for Biden in the general. Would also be interesting to see how many people registered to vote just to vote uncommitted.
IMO the Dems won't take it that seriously either way. Probably just in messaging. Just to get that out of the way. If they should or not is up for debate. If I were a strategists I'd be looking at Arab American voters and the youth vote to figure out what the trends might could tell me. You'd already start from there knowing those numbers are going to be down. But there is useful data here. Young kids signing up just to vote uncommitted points to young folks just not even bothering or purposefully sitting out/voting third party.
Yeah, I used 15% but doing the math that would end up around 125, 000 going off those early voting figures. That cuts Biden 2020 margin of victory down by about 3/4ths. That's starting to ring some alarm bells. Yeah, some are bluffing and some are likely 3rd party voters doing it to send a message. Which, good on them, it's about the only way they have to do it i guess. If people are willing to spend their time sending a message there are likely plenty of others that are just fed up and won't be back to vote for him at all.
I'm curious about people registering just for this too. I'm sure it happened but it seems some of the folks working on this were reaching out to Arab American voters they already had phone banked. These are people that have volunteered to GOV for Dems before so their data is legit. I'd bank of the new folks being somewhat marginal.
But it's also important to remember a primary is a completely different beast than a general election. The math could go jump a hundred different ways based on weather, traffic, flu, etc.
I doubt it stays at that high of a percentage. Likely big chunks of cities votes being counted. Folks that the “uncommitted” campaign targeted hard.
Is this actually a high number in historical context or is everyone just jumping on it to dunk on Biden? I genuinely don't know but would be good to actually compare it to past numbers.
Edit: Not attacking you for this. Just see a ton of people on twitter already doing this.
. I’m not sure. Like I said I don’t think it’s going to trend all night. If it did it would be close to the votes Trump lost by in 2020. I’d say over 15% would be significant and something strategists would actually need to worry about. For several reasons that would apply to any incumbent, much less one polling so low. However, he’s going against Trump. So favorability isn’t as telling.
You’d also need to look at the data on the voters. Along with how Dems run the primary in that state. It’s not a fluke but there could be some rat fucking bolstering it.
Post by SupeЯfuЯЯyanimal on Feb 26, 2024 13:16:15 GMT -5
What the fuck is the media good for if they tie themselves in knots to deny something so blatantly obvious?
If the worry is copycats then simply don’t report on it? But they have to. They gotta get clicks off the sensationalism of it all but, in that process, choose to blur realty.
The media, the military and some useless libs are making this about anything except what it’s actually about. Huff post wasn’t sure it was a political statement. Although he called it a political act before screaming “free Palestine” multiple times while on fucking fire.
Post by SupeЯfuЯЯyanimal on Feb 26, 2024 11:25:01 GMT -5
We will almost certainly be fighting/ running from the devil tonight.
So I’ll leave it up to yall if you want to wait. I’m back from trip one. I’ll be home by Monday night next week. And should be open to play any other night if we need to do that
Post by SupeЯfuЯЯyanimal on Feb 21, 2024 21:32:26 GMT -5
It’s unlike most of his films but maybe the most like him. Or you could say it contains several running motifs that Lynch revisits but it isn’t concerned with the decay and rot under the facade.
Based off some of these comments, sounds like I made the right decision in tuning out halfway through the season. Did the callbacks to the first season stay as forced as I heard they were?
Ehh, I get why people find it annoying but there were far worse problems with this season than the callbacks.
Post by SupeЯfuЯЯyanimal on Feb 13, 2024 17:12:51 GMT -5
I would say they often make it impossible to support them. “We aren't the GOP” is typically their best argument. And they can’t even get that right half the time without some smugness or insults. All around terrible at politics.
"He can't remember when his son died" is such an obvious hatchet job.
He remembers when his fucking son died. I’ve done hundreds of interviews in my career and the kind verbal ticks they’re highlighting in the transcript are pretty normal. Like ya, the dude’s 80 and slowing down, people have every right to be genuinely concerned about that. But that’s not what this is. Ask anyone who has had a very long and active career a couple hours of questions about stuff that happened 10-15 years ago and you’re gonna get quotes like this in the transcript.
There’s also a huge difference between remembing a loved one passing and recalling the year off hand. The way it’s being reported sometimes blurs what was being asked. I can’t even find the full context but it keeps saying “even within a couple years” of the event.
If you were to randomly ask me what year my mom died I’d have to do the math. Stuff like that can be a blur. Covid. Her being in the hospital. Getting better and then dying was over a two year period and i don’t really think about it in terms of exact dates. It’s just not how my mind works.
Now I could tell you where I was. Who was around me. What time I found out. Who told me. Who I first told. All sorts of details. But about 50/50 chance I’d have to pause to tell you the date. June 18 2022.
You are leaving out critical context. I'm not sure if you're doing it intentionally or not.
The reason why 9 countries have suspended funding to UNRWA is because on Friday Israel released a report alleging that a dozen UNRWA employees were active participants in the October 7th massacre. The report was credible enough that the head of UNRWA terminated the employment of 9 of the 12 (one was confirmed to be dead and they are still confirming the identity of the other two).
If this organization is actively participating in terrorism, then maybe it needs to be dismantled.
So, assuming this report is true, 12 out of 13,000 employees were active participants in the massacre. And on receiving credible evidence of this, UNRWA fired most of those employees right away. (The thing I read said that two of the remaining individuals have been killed and one’s identity is still being verified.). How does this equate to “this organization is actively participating in terrorism” or even to a reason to believe that it might be? Even if the full 190 people that they said have ties to Hamas really do, I’m not seeing how that means that UNRWA was actively participating in terrorism. 190 out of 13,000 employees having some tie to Hamas and 12 out of 13,000 participating in the massacre seem like extremely small percentages to say that the organization was complicit. Is there something here I’m not understanding?
It seems they don’t even have evidence for those 12. At least in the dossier. I know we are all shocked.
Never believe any country using “intelligence” in the place of actual information.
it's also possible some trickster pharmacist replaced the medicine with "MDMA", aka "Ecstasy", aka "The Love Drug". so if LD takes it he will be "rolling".
Shut up!
Have you ever changed out some grumpy costumer's meds with high-octane laxative?
I know you can't publicly admit it so I'll take denying it as a yes.