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i still dont quite grasp the difference between the inspector and the vigilante
Inspector gets to PM the Referee, asking about the Mafia status of one player per Night. Vigilante takes the law into their own hands - they whack someone they think is guilty every other night.
can the vigilante whack someone they didnt vote for? or do they vote for the person who they want to whack?
(i am none of these people by the way, just tyring to get a feel for this here game)
Vigilante gets to kill someone at Night, just like the Mafia do. They do not have to kill at Night the person they voted for during the Day - that would make them too obvious.
The Vigilante doesn't have any inside information, as opposed to the Mafia and the Inspector. Their gut tells them someone is guilty, and they kill them off during the Night without confirming that suspicion.
I've been thinking about what Bama, rather than Jack, as Inspector means for that theory I had... I still think it's plausible. I think the first flaw in it was that I was leaning towards Jack as Inspector, so I didn't take Bama as seriously as I should've.
The second flaw I see in my theory was that I was assuming that both Mafia were among the RonBurgandy? voters. At this point I don't think both Mafia were in that group, but that doesn't rule out that one of them was.
I did think the Mafia was hiding within the group of RonBurgandy? voters. That list, at some point or another, included: Krizzeam, Rooconteur, Tara & NBF. I think Krizzeam is probably innocent in that case, because he voted first for RonBurgandy? It might be that the mafia was working with that, because that's the first vote they had to go on. I don't think Mafia shenanigans were involved with that until after the Handgun/Tara thing blew up. Rooconteur is probably innocent in all that, because he seemed rather confused in his voting. That leaves NBF. She looks a lot more guilty if Bama was the Inspector, and that fits my "Tara + RB? voters" theory - albeit to a lesser degree.
I think if we get rid of NBF, we'll be down to one Mafia... one who didn't vote for RonBurgandy? in that first round.
1. I notice a recurring theme. She repeatedly said things along the lines of "I'm on the Townspeople's side" but never explicitly claimed to be a Townsperson. 2. She stuck up for Krizzeam's innocence, which has been confirmed since there was no Vigilante whack last Night and he seems to be the only suspect. (However, if Bama's the Inspector, it's possible Jack was our Vigilante and not Krizzeam.) 3. At various times, she said Higgi, NothingButFlowers & Kelaroo look suspicious. Her last vote before she died was for NBF. Coincidence? I don't know about that...
After processing all this, I have to change my vote. I vote NothingButFlowers.
Assuming Bama was inspector, which I agree it looks like she was, it seems that she (1) got Tara's name as mafia before the game, and (2) asked about Krizz on Night One and learned that he was not mafia. She was suspicious about me, yes, but she was adamant that he was not mafia. She definitely didn't ask about me because, if she had, she'd have known that I was not mafia and voted for someone else.
I didn't vote for Krizz because Bama was so adamant about his innocence, and I didn't want to vote off an innocent player. I voted Rooconteur. The main arguments against him being mafia are that he already was mafia last game, and he's playing differently than he did when he was mafia. The statistical argument doesn't hold water. Just like when you flip a coin, every time there is a 50/50 chance of it landing on heads, every time you start a new game, there is the same chance of being mafia. As for him acting differently, well, that makes perfect sense. If he acted one way last game, what better way to throw people off than to act totally different the next time? And his confusion and vote switching? Again, it looks like a cover to me.
That said, I think maybe he and fishingmaniac are mafia. I'm keeping my vote with fishingmaniac because I think that he has intentionally been trying to confuse things, which seems really shady to me.
I didn't vote for Krizz because Bama was so adamant about his innocence, and I didn't want to vote off an innocent player. I voted Rooconteur. The main arguments against him being mafia are that he already was mafia last game, and he's playing differently than he did when he was mafia. The statistical argument doesn't hold water. Just like when you flip a coin, every time there is a 50/50 chance of it landing on heads, every time you start a new game, there is the same chance of being mafia. As for him acting differently, well, that makes perfect sense. If he acted one way last game, what better way to throw people off than to act totally different the next time? And his confusion and vote switching? Again, it looks like a cover to me.
Once upon a time in another game, I was a Townsperson coming out of a game where I was Mafia. I kept my vote open and filibustered my ass off in my defense. My argument? That I couldn't be Mafia twice. I think I laid it out pretty well, too... even though I got voted off that round.
Back then, I figured the odds of being Mafia in two consecutive games is more like 3-in-121. That's less likely than the 1-in-13 random draw we have with a single game. I suspect you're attempting to distort things by comparing it to a 50/50 coin flip. It's more like rolling a twelve-sided die and getting the same number twice.
Back then, I figured the odds of being Mafia in two consecutive games is more like 3-in-121. That's less likely than the 1-in-13 random draw we have with a single game. I suspect you're attempting to distort things by comparing it to a 50/50 coin flip.
No. I don't actually know anything about statistics, but if the roles are assigned randomly, doesn't each person have a 3 in 13 chance of being mafia each game?
Yes - each game. We had a 3-in-13 chance this game. Two consecutive games is a different story. The odds are overwhelmingly against anyone being Mafia twice in a row.
You know, the longer you squabble with me over this, the guiltier you look... The longest post I've written in any Mafia game ever (you think I'm long-winded now? Ha.) was on this subject. You'd have a hell of a lot of work to do to convince me otherwise.
the odds would change from 3/13 to either 2/12 or 3/12, and continuously get higher/lower respectively untill all roles. the last person will have a 100% chance at getting whatever role is left over.
Yes - each game. Two consecutive games is a different story.
You know, the longer you squabble with me over this, the guiltier you look... The longest post I've written in any Mafia game ever was on that subject. You'd have a hell of a lot of work to do to convince me otherwise.
As far as the statistics of it, I really have no clue. But of course I'm going to try to argue it. You're trying to get people to think I'm mafia when I'm not.
Post by NothingButFlowers on Mar 19, 2009 11:14:20 GMT -5
As I already said, if Bama was the inspector, it looks like the only things she knew were that Tara was mafia and Krizz was innocent. If the mafia thought that she was the inspector, it made sense for them to whack her no matter who she voted for. All the better for them that she had voted for me.
My working list of suspects at this point (Inspector, please take note; Vigilante, you too): Tara Higgi Krizzeam NothingButFlowers Fishingmaniac
List of suspects I arrived at using a different method, assuming... 1. Tara is Mafia and the Inspector voted for her 2. Anyone who was killed at Night is innocent 3. Anyone Tara voted for is innocent
As I already said, if Bama was the inspector, it looks like the only things she knew were that Tara was mafia and Krizz was innocent. If the mafia thought that she was the inspector, it made sense for them to whack her no matter who she voted for. All the better for them that she had voted for me.
If Bama was the Inspector, you are one of three players she called out as suspicious.
You know how the Mafia figure out who the Inspector is? They don't know it right off the bat. It happens when the Inspector publicly calls them out and/or votes for a Mafia member. You are the only player in the game who fits both of those "and/or" criteria.
Post by NothingButFlowers on Mar 19, 2009 11:33:20 GMT -5
Wait, are you saying you think I'm mafia because I suspected Bama of being the inspector? You just said a minute ago that you believed all along that either the inspector was either Jack or Bama. I thought it looked like Bama was the inspector because she was so adamant about certain things when she didn't have any evidence to base her arguments on.
Also, I don't understand what you mean by I fit the "or she votes for a mafia member" criteria?
Wait, are you saying you think I'm mafia because I suspected Bama of being the inspector? You just said a minute ago that you believed all along that either the inspector was either Jack or Bama. I thought it looked like Bama was the inspector because she was so adamant about certain things when she didn't have any evidence to base her arguments on.
You include in your defense a pretense that Bama is the Inspector, quoted below.
As I already said, if Bama was the inspector, it looks like the only things she knew were that Tara was mafia and Krizz was innocent. If the mafia thought that she was the inspector, it made sense for them to whack her no matter who she voted for. All the better for them that she had voted for me.
What I'm saying is... if Bama's the Inspector (a concept you seem to support) then it also follows that you are suspicious. Bama said so. You can't use voting with Bama as a reason for your innocence, then say Bama calling you suspicious is irrelevant. Highly illogical.
Also, I don't understand what you mean by I fit the "or she votes for a mafia member" criteria?
Mafia don't receive any special knowledge, just special powers. All they know is that there are ten non-Mafia players. Beyond that, anything they know is based on what happens in the thread. They don't know who to think the Inspector is. The Mafia knows nothing about the Inspector's identity until the Inspector either says something to draw suspicion to a Mafia member or votes for a Mafia member. I'll concede that the Mafia has a 10% chance of randomly choosing the Inspector during Night One, when there's not as much information to act on. I think that's not impossible, but unlikely.
I'm not going to ignore the fact that the probable Inspector voted for you just before dying...
I voted Rooconteur. The main arguments against him being mafia are that he already was mafia last game, and he's playing differently than he did when he was mafia. The statistical argument doesn't hold water. Just like when you flip a coin, every time there is a 50/50 chance of it landing on heads, every time you start a new game, there is the same chance of being mafia. As for him acting differently, well, that makes perfect sense. If he acted one way last game, what better way to throw people off than to act totally different the next time? And his confusion and vote switching? Again, it looks like a cover to me.
That said, I think maybe he and fishingmaniac are mafia. I'm keeping my vote with fishingmaniac because I think that he has intentionally been trying to confuse things, which seems really shady to me.
I found this while scrolling back for your quotes on Bama. We've already gone into the odds of one person being Mafia in two consecutive games... And you're trying to say that two of last game's Mafia got Mafia roles this game? I don't know what the odds of that are exactly, but I can tell you they're pretty quacking low.
Bek, could you please detail your role selection methods for the group?
Post by NothingButFlowers on Mar 19, 2009 12:04:34 GMT -5
If Bama was the inspector, then I'm sure that Tara also was mafia, which leads me to believe that you probably are not. Again, yes, Bama, inspector or not, was suspicious of me, but it was only a suspicion, and that doesn't make me mafia.
If Bama was not the inspector, then wasn't the main reason we've all been going on the assumption that Tara was mafia your repeated statements that you believed the inspector knew that Tara was guilty? You've been the one who has been posting detailed updates swaying people to vote the way you wanted them to. You were the one who led the vote for Krizz.
I really haven't believed before that you were mafia, but now you are going after me, and I know I'm innocent. You've professed over and over again that you are an innocent townsperson with no role, but you've been trying to instruct those with roles to do what you think they should do. I'm really starting to get the feeling that you've been manipulating all of us from the start.
I voted Rooconteur. The main arguments against him being mafia are that he already was mafia last game, and he's playing differently than he did when he was mafia. The statistical argument doesn't hold water. Just like when you flip a coin, every time there is a 50/50 chance of it landing on heads, every time you start a new game, there is the same chance of being mafia. As for him acting differently, well, that makes perfect sense. If he acted one way last game, what better way to throw people off than to act totally different the next time? And his confusion and vote switching? Again, it looks like a cover to me.
That said, I think maybe he and fishingmaniac are mafia. I'm keeping my vote with fishingmaniac because I think that he has intentionally been trying to confuse things, which seems really shady to me.
I found this while scrolling back for your quotes on Bama. We've already gone into the odds of one person being Mafia in two consecutive games... And you're trying to say that two of last game's Mafia got Mafia roles this game? I don't know what the odds of that are exactly, but I can tell you they're pretty quacking low.
Bek, could you please detail your role selection methods for the group?
Actually, I forgot that fishingmaniac was mafia last game. I don't know what the odds are. I also don't know if my Rooconteur/fishingmaniac theory had any credence at all. I pretty much don't know what the hell to think.
Edit: Except to think that if I don't get off of here soon and get some work done, I'm going to lose my job.
Bek, could you please detail your role selection methods for the group?
I'm also interested in this. Since you've never refed, I've been unsure of your selection method. Kdogg and I both use random methods, so I guess I've been assuming yours was also.
If Bama was the inspector, then I'm sure that Tara also was mafia, which leads me to believe that you probably are not. Again, yes, Bama, inspector or not, was suspicious of me, but it was only a suspicion, and that doesn't make me mafia.
If Bama was not the inspector, then wasn't the main reason we've all been going on the assumption that Tara was mafia your repeated statements that you believed the inspector knew that Tara was guilty? You've been the one who has been posting detailed updates swaying people to vote the way you wanted them to. You were the one who led the vote for Krizz.
I really haven't believed before that you were mafia, but now you are going after me, and I know I'm innocent. You've professed over and over again that you are an innocent townsperson with no role, but you've been trying to instruct those with roles to do what you think they should do. I'm really starting to get the feeling that you've been manipulating all of us from the start.
I saw two Inspector candidates (Bama & Jack) and they both voted the same way.
I knew something was unusual about Bama's post voting for Tara, because it was uncharacteristically timely of her. She's usually one of the last people we're waiting on to vote. Jack's stronger language overshadowed the possibility of Inspector Bama to me for a while, so she wasn't my top candidate for the role at first. In fact, until Jack spoke up in the Day One voting, I figured Bama had a 50/50 chance of being Mafia because of what I saw in the Handgun/Tara situation.
Answer the question "Who is Inspector?" and regardless of whether you answer Jack or Bama... the answer to "Who is Mafia?" is inevitably Tara.
So I'm not going to apologize for voting for Krizzeam. I regret it, but I thought he was Mafia at the time. I would like to add that I voted for Krizzeam for a lot of the same reasons I think you're suspicious. It's not like I'm turning my whole world upside down to find a reason to vote for you.
I promise you I am a Townsperson, and no matter what I know the end results will vindicate me. So what if I'm playing aggressively? I'm innocent and I know it. I'm the Townspeople's attackdogg.
Post by rooconteur on Mar 19, 2009 12:39:18 GMT -5
Just to clear up the statistics issue. The odds on anyone being mafia this game is 3/13. Last game doesn't matter. The odds are completely independent of eachother.
So I'm not going to apologize for voting for Krizzeam. I regret it, but I thought he was Mafia at the time. I would like to add that I voted for Krizzeam for a lot of the same reasons I think you're suspicious. It's not like I'm turning my whole world upside down to find a reason to vote for you.
So you are voting for me based on the same faulty assumptions that you used to support your vote for Krizz?
I promise you I am a Townsperson, and no matter what I know the end results will vindicate me. So what if I'm playing aggressively? I'm innocent and I know it.
Which is exactly the same thing you'd say if you were mafia.
