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What, the twelve-sided die reference didn't tip you off?
Haha! No, I missed that, I think you did that in an edit, and I didn't go back and reread after you edited. Damn, does that mean I need to go back and read all your posts to see what you've changed?
Which is exactly the same thing you'd say if you were mafia.
Has it occurred to you that an innocent would make the same claim? Or that there are more innocents than Mafia?
Why would I publicly campaign for a particular vote if I were Mafia, when I could easily take care of those matters in back-room PMs? As a Townsperson, the thread is my only venue of communication. Seriously, you think I'm this lengthy in the thread and PMing people to coordinate things on top of this?
If you think I'm Mafia, I'm very curious to hear exactly who you think I'm in cahoots with here. If you think Tara is Mafia, and I rallied against her, explain that too.
The odds are overwhelmingly against anyone being Mafia twice in a row.
This is not true. Even though I was mafia last game, my chances are 3 in 13 this game. If you flip a quarter and get heads. If you flip it again, the chances of heads and tails are still 1/2.
The odds are overwhelmingly against anyone being Mafia twice in a row.
This is not true. Even though I was mafia last game, my chances are 3 in 13 this game. If you flip a quarter and get heads. If you flip it again, the chances of heads and tails are still 1/2.
But if you flip a quarter twice, and you're looking for heads both times, you've got four realistic combinations.
Heads, then Tails Heads, then Heads Tails, then Tails Tails, then Heads. It lands on its side, and you appoint Mr. Smith to that vacant Senate seat.
All joking aside, you'd have a 1-in-4 chance of getting Heads twice in a row.
Edit: Not to mention, half of the people who are playing are not Mafia. That's why I said the 12-sided die was a more appropriate analogy.
As a Townsperson, the thread is my only venue of communication. Seriously, you think I'm this lengthy in the thread and PMing people to coordinate things on top of this?
Are you really arguing this? It's already been established that you are this verbose regardless of whether or not you are mafia! You just said a minute ago that the longest post you've ever posted in a mafia game was in a game where you were mafia. So, yes, I most definitely think that you would be this lengthy in thread and in PMs.
If you think I'm Mafia, I'm very curious to hear exactly who you think I'm in cahoots with here. If you think Tara is Mafia, and I rallied against her, explain that too.
I don't know anymore if Tara was mafia or not. I think you want me to think she was. I don't know if you are mafia or not. I do know that I'm innocent, and that you are pushing pretty hard to get me killed.
This is not true. Even though I was mafia last game, my chances are 3 in 13 this game. If you flip a quarter and get heads. If you flip it again, the chances of heads and tails are still 1/2.
But if you flip a quarter twice, and you're looking for heads both times, you've got five combinations.
Heads, then Tails Heads, then Heads Tails, then Tails Tails, then Heads. It lands on its side, and you appoint Mr. Smith to that vacant Senate seat.
All joking aside, you'd have a 1-in-4 chance of getting Heads twice in a row.
Ya but the results of last game are complete. THere is a 100% chance that I'm Mafia last game. 3/13 this game. Without knowing, the chances of me being mafia this game and next game is 3/13*3/13=9/169. But for any individual game, the chances are 3/13 regardless of what happened in the previous game.
Are you really arguing this? It's already been established that you are this verbose regardless of whether or not you are mafia! You just said a minute ago that the longest post you've ever posted in a mafia game was in a game where you were mafia. So, yes, I most definitely think that you would be this lengthy in thread and in PMs.
Re-read that. I was a Townsperson, playing in a game which followed a game where I was Mafia. So my longest post was when I was innocent.
If you think I'm Mafia, I'm very curious to hear exactly who you think I'm in cahoots with here. If you think Tara is Mafia, and I rallied against her, explain that too.
I don't know anymore if Tara was mafia or not. I think you want me to think she was. I don't know if you are mafia or not. I do know that I'm innocent, and that you are pushing pretty hard to get me killed.
You tell me you think Bama was the Inspector. Bama voted for Tara, and only Tara, in the first round of voting. Not to mention, she voted for Tara before I did. So I ask you: Why would I be siding with Bama if I were Mafia?
Are you really arguing this? It's already been established that you are this verbose regardless of whether or not you are mafia! You just said a minute ago that the longest post you've ever posted in a mafia game was in a game where you were mafia. So, yes, I most definitely think that you would be this lengthy in thread and in PMs.
Re-read that. I was a Townsperson, playing in a game which followed a game where I was Mafia. So my longest post was when I was innocent.
I guess I misread it, but my point is still valid: it's been established that you are just as outspoken regardless of whether you were mafia or not.
I don't know anymore if Tara was mafia or not. I think you want me to think she was. I don't know if you are mafia or not. I do know that I'm innocent, and that you are pushing pretty hard to get me killed.
You tell me you think Bama was the Inspector. Bama voted for Tara, and only Tara, in the first round of voting. Not to mention, she voted for Tara before I did. So I ask you: Why would I be siding with Bama if I were Mafia?
I've said there are reasons to believe Bama was the inspector, and I've made arguments based on "if" Bama was the inspector. I don't know if she was or not. I've also said that I don't know if you are mafia or not, but I don't know why else you would be going after me so hard if you're not.
Post by Fishing Maniac on Mar 19, 2009 13:29:27 GMT -5
Man you guys have been way too active. I didn't even read the last two pages.
I'm about to get on a plane. I'll check in when I get to Boston. While I'm gone, why don't you examine a completely different scenario. Let's assume, just for the sake of argument and a balanced examination of the possibilities, that Tara was innocent. I don't think that she was, but if she was then the logic being used is truly flawed.
I also believe that the inspector is still alive. If they are not, then the person who I think is inspector is definitely mafia. If only I could remember who my mafia partners were. ???
Post by Fishing Maniac on Mar 19, 2009 13:34:11 GMT -5
I'm reposting this just because other posts came up while I was editing it and I would like for people to see this and consider it.
I'm about to get on a plane. I'll check in when I get to Boston. While I'm gone, why don't you examine a completely different scenario. Let's assume, just for the sake of argument and a balanced examination of the possibilities, that Tara was innocent. I don't think that she was, but if she was then the logic being used is truly flawed.
I also believe that the inspector is still alive. If they are not, then the person who I think is inspector is definitely mafia. If only I could remember who my mafia partners were. ???
Man, it's weird to me to not be able to participate in a thread that talks so much about me! LOL
Oh well, at least it wasn't death-by-glowies this time
try death-by-wookies.....its no fun.
its interesting keeping up with all these thought processes, however, i am very sad i got shafted and cant really participate. i wanna tell everyone what i know, but i cant and i wont.
The longer I talk to NBF, the more I think we're two misguided innocents barking up wrong trees.
I'm changing my vote back to Fishingmaniac.
Well, the biggest reason I thought you were suspicious in the first place was because you were pushing so hard for me. Although I have to consider the possibility that you are just trying to cover your a$$, it did seem to make perfect sense that Bama or Jack was the inspector, and they both voted for Tara, and you voted for Tara.
Then, there is fishingmaniac's most recent posts, which confuse the issue further. After all his random a$$ posts, he makes a somewhat serious post pretty much asking us to rethink everything. Not to mention that he posted it right after you changed your vote back to him. I don't like it.
I'm about to get on a plane. I'll check in when I get to Boston. While I'm gone, why don't you examine a completely different scenario. Let's assume, just for the sake of argument and a balanced examination of the possibilities, that Tara was innocent. I don't think that she was, but if she was then the logic being used is truly flawed.
I also believe that the inspector is still alive. If they are not, then the person who I think is inspector is definitely mafia. If only I could remember who my mafia partners were. ???
I'll take you up on this. I screwed up in round two and feel I need to atone for it.
If I presume Tara innocent, then I have to also forgo the notion Bama/Jack as Inspector. I would still believe the Mafia is involved in Day One vote-stacking, Tara guilty or not. I think the biggest groups are most likely to contain Mafia.
Step 1: Look at the Day One votes before the run-off. I need to see who's vote-piling.
Tara voters: RonBurgandy?/Jack/Bama (also Handgun at one point) If I presume Tara is innocent, the votes don't look like Mafia stacking. Jack & Bama both got whacked, so we know they're innocent. I don't see Mafia shenanigans here. I'm not positive, but I think RB? is innocent. However, if there's a Mafia hiding in that stack, it's him.
Higgi voters: kdogg/Handgun/Rooconteur (also Fishingmaniac at one point) kdogg, I assure you, is innocent, so I can definitely rule myself out. Rooconteur is so all over the place with his voting it sticks out. I personally think it makes him innocent, but your mileage may vary. NBF speculated that Rooconteur was putting on a ruse to make himself look innocent; she might be onto something. Handgun switched a vote from Tara to Higgi. If I weren't presuming Tara innocent for the purposes of this scenario, I'd speculate Handgun might have done it to save Tara.
RonBurgandy? voters: Krizzeam/Tara/NBF (also Rooconteur at one point) Krizzeam got voted off for guilt by association with Tara. If I presume Tara innocent, I consequently have to presume him innocent too. That makes it more likely, though not 100%, that NBF is innocent by association.
Kelaroo voters: Sadie & Fishingmaniac Sadie reciprocated Kelaroo's prior vote for her. I think that's typical for Day One voting, not to mention a basic voting strategy, so I think she's innocent. Fishingmaniac... who knows what's up with him? Now that he's acting less like the freaking Joker I'm less inclined to suspect him. He still floated between piles of voters in Day One, which is the exact behavior I think is afoot, so he still looks fishy.
After looking all that, I narrow down unverified vote-pilers to create a list of potential suspects. RonBurgandy?...? Rooconteur Handgun? NBF? Fishingmaniac
Step 2: Rommel, you magnificent I HAVE NO DADDY!! I read your book!
I don't think I've spent enough time thinking like Mafia here, outside of the vote-piling strategy. I have to take their whacking strategy into further consideration.
My best guess is that the Mafia saw my ranting about (presumed innocent for these purposes) Tara and capitalized it. They've got a full roster of innocents they can choose from to whack. If Tara's innocent, I was wrong... but the Mafia knew I was on the wrong track. It makes sense that they would see me calling out an innocent person, and use their whacking strategy to advance a popular misconception. That's why they went after people who voted Tara: to give the appearance Tara, and not they, were Mafia.
My big unanswered question when I look at this from the "innocent Tara" angle is: who's the Inspector?
Edit: I have a second big unanswered question. I've done three in-depth analyses of the situation, and Fishingmaniac's name was the only name on every list no matter how I looked at it. I wonder why that is...
Post by handgunhipster on Mar 19, 2009 14:49:56 GMT -5
This is just a thought-- but, If we are assuming that the Inspector is still alive, wouldn't it be smart not to call that person out? We know the mafia will take them out asap.
Bek, could you please detail your role selection methods for the group?
If I told you than I would have to kill you.
Seriously though, some roles were randomly picked by myself and other roles were randomly picked by my friend (who doesn't know anyone or anything) who was sitting beside me on the couch watching me when I developed the thread.
So you all can stop arguing statistics because a) the statistics will only hold true if the same method was used as kdogg from the previous round and I was too full of corn to find the scissors to use his method, lol b) two people were used to decides the roles
the stats are wrong. we know nothing. does that answer your question?
kdogg... i want to vote for you so bad mostly because you talk to much. i don't check this site for like 3 hours and have to come back to read like 4 pages of stuff you wrote.
but, i'm not going to vote for you because sometimes all ur talk is helpful.
i vote kelaroo. i'm still bitter she voted for me in the first round. hahaha
