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Anybody else see on accuweather where they changed the forecast to "brilliant" and "abundant" sunshine for Friday and Saturday respectively? What self-respecting meteorologist would use such adjectives?
I don't know, but the forecasts are getting better and better. No more humidity and the temps are perfect. Gotta expect a shower or two, it is the Summer!
Accuweather and the Weather Channel resort to doing crap like that, mainly as a way to draw in visitors. Instead of focusing on accuracy, they focus more on how to hold/gain market share - hence playing on a lot of human interest stories and phrasings.
Post by johncagebubblegum on Jun 3, 2010 16:56:07 GMT -5
holy crap. that accuweather forecast is ridiculously awesome weather for roo if it holds up (yeah right). the weather channel one is fine too...a shower here and there early on isn't so bad.
"We're no longer called Sonic Death Monkey. We're on the verge of becoming Kathleen Turner Overdrive, but just for tonight, we are Barry Jive and his Uptown Five. "
Can anyone confirm with the earliest attempts at posting temps this year on accuracy? What I mean is looking back on page 4 there were 2 images posted that included Friday (today) as certain temps (different for the two weather providers) can any of you confirm if their outlook for 6/4 was accurate? Maybe we can get an idea how accurate they are.
Can anyone confirm with the earliest attempts at posting temps this year on accuracy? What I mean is looking back on page 4 there were 2 images posted that included Friday (today) as certain temps (different for the two weather providers) can any of you confirm if their outlook for 6/4 was accurate? Maybe we can get an idea how accurate they are.
Forecast temperatures should be in the ballpark; just plan for it to be hot during the day and somewhat cool in the late evening/early morning.
We need a burly thunderstorm every afternoon to settle the dust and possibly make some heady mud to walk through!
The majority of our State is above annual averages on rainfall at this point; there won't be any dust to speak of. The water table is up, especially after the torrential rains from last month; there will probably be mud anyway.
has anyone had experience with that kind of forecast in the past? does this mean "miami t-storm" in that it still only rains for an hour or two per day even though the prediction is "severe thunderstorms"?
I have only been to 06 and 07 and neither were very rainy - in fact is was quite the opposite. This forecast is daunting!
has anyone had experience with that kind of forecast in the past? does this mean "miami t-storm" in that it still only rains for an hour or two per day even though the prediction is "severe thunderstorms"?
I have only been to 06 and 07 and neither were very rainy - in fact is was quite the opposite. This forecast is daunting!
I'm not sure how much we can trust Accuweather at this point. Their forecasts seem to drastically change daily. Just yesterday it was supposed to be sunny, no chance of storms, and in the mid 80s. Now it's in the upper 80s to the 90s with your typical Southern popup storms every day. It seems to be going back and forth between the two quite often now.
"I'm not sure how much we can trust Accuweather at this point. Their forecasts seem to drastically change daily. Just yesterday it was supposed to be sunny, no chance of storms, and in the mid 80s. Now it's in the upper 80s to the 90s with your typical Southern popup storms every day. It seems to be going back and forth between the two quite often now."
Good point. I guess what I'm asking is, if it were to be thunderstorming, does TN typically get the t-storm that lasts only 30 minutes then stops then starts again type of thing? I am going to bring a charcoal grill this year and hope that if it is raining each day there will at least be a time when I can light that sucker up and grill some chicken.
Good point. I guess what I'm asking is, if it were to be thunderstorming, does TN typically get the t-storm that lasts only 30 minutes then stops then starts again type of thing?
Good point. I guess what I'm asking is, if it were to be thunderstorming, does TN typically get the t-storm that lasts only 30 minutes then stops then starts again type of thing?
Tn summer weather=HOT, quick rain, HOTTER.
Tn summer weather=HOT, quick rain, HOTTER, and MORE HUMID.
If you look at weather. com (http://www.weather.com/outlook/health/allergies/monthly/37355), it tells you the percent chance for precipitation. maybe that'll help. i think they keep switching from rain and sun because of the percentage. if one day they expect 25% then 30%, i think accuweather goes from sunny to rainy. i dont like the way they put their chance rain and cant see it right there in their monthly forecast, so hopefully weather.com is still accurate.
^If you're using Accuweather, Ellie is right. You need to click the day for the details. Saturday is slated for "strong thunderstorms," but only 0.25 inches and 2 hours of rain are predicted, which is in keeping with the seasonal weather patterns in this part of the country.
Or you could just not worry about it. It's not like we're not gonna go just because it might rain.
This bodes well for us. See how there's an arching pattern over TN and to the west a bit? That's a ridge and it means no rain. If this model solution is correct we would be looking at some really low probabilities of rain.
We can measure our confidence in the model to some degree by looking at ensembles or spaghetti charts, when the lines are close together it gives us confidence, when they are spaced out it means the solution is less likely to be correct. Check spaghetti chart here:
Yea, still plenty of time for the forecast to change...like I've said before, I don't think any weather prediction is worth squat until about 48 hours before the dates in question. That being said, if the above mentioned axis DOES turn it'll def. improve the outlook.
"We're no longer called Sonic Death Monkey. We're on the verge of becoming Kathleen Turner Overdrive, but just for tonight, we are Barry Jive and his Uptown Five. "
Post by coldfrontin on Jun 4, 2010 11:54:30 GMT -5
large/synoptic scale waves like the one you see in the above links actually move pretty slow and predictably, and unlike afternoon convection, the type of systems that accompany these waves are the ones responsible for tens of hours of rain. so yeah, spotty showers are hard to predict more than a day or two out, but large scale systems that are arguably more worrysome for festival goers are easier to predict. apples and oranges my friend.
Last Edit: Jun 4, 2010 11:56:08 GMT -5 by coldfrontin - Back to Top
Hey hey, a hardcore weather follower. Nice to have you here.
I was really disappointed in the Nashville NWS discussions, they don't really say much of anything - especially beyond the immediate future. Thankfully for my locals (Taunton and Upton), they do say what's coming about 5-6 out - at least in passing anyway.
Post by coldfrontin on Jun 4, 2010 12:15:44 GMT -5
haha. yeah i only 'follow weather' right before roo. im a grad student doing seasonal climate modeling research.
. . . and i thought i was the only one surprised at what kind of slack Leno those nashville forecasters are passing off as a discussion . here in raleigh they are about 20x as long.
Last Edit: Jun 4, 2010 12:19:12 GMT -5 by coldfrontin - Back to Top
I grew up watching an awful lot of the Weather Channel, particularly that summer of 1995 with all the hurricanes.
I ended up going to college as a meteorology major. Flunked out two years later, due to a combination of depression and the fact I hate physics and calculus. I figured it would be about studying models and forecasting off that. Nope, or at least not where I was.
