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Im in northeast TN and it has been way cooler than last year at this time so I hope it wont be as bad as last year but soon enough we can start getting forecast that are gonna be wrong anyways
I'm about 40 minutes from the farm and the cicadas are out in full force. We just had a downpour and I was thinking it would have killed some of them off. Nope...they're louder today than ever before.
Post by yfoogsittam on May 22, 2011 18:21:09 GMT -5
taking us to the end of may, weather.com and accuweather both have it 78-81 for the highs and a 30-40% chance of rain almost every day. I could deal with that forecast if it holds through mid june.
OK, so we all know that this far out no forecast is worth a $^!% but
Accuweather has it raining and low-mid 80's on the Sunday and Monday before Roo and The Almanac says for the week of Roo "Jun 6-14: Scattered t-storms, then sunny, cool;"
So the 2 agree that we will dry out and be nice and cool for Roo this year. True, it means nothing but still a nice thought.
I looked at a website called DryDay. It gave a 40-60% chance of rain for the weekend of Roo. However, Sunday was at 40 and Friday was at 60. Take it for what it's worth... it's still only May 23rd.
Validating the idea that weather forecasting is no better than throwing darts while blindfolded, Accuweather has totally changed the 2 week forecast since yesterday. Temps before Roo are up almost 10 degrees from yesterday's forecast (mid 90's) and rain now on Monday and Tuesday.
Hope this is wrong and as 90's and wet/muggy/humid is the worst of all worlds.
Others still have rainy and mid 80's for the week prior so...
By Thursday we'll be into actual useless Roo forecasts. I'll be at the Hippie Jack Fest so I won't post any until Monday/Tuesday. By then we should have a few useless forecasts for the entire Roo weekend.
By Thursday we'll be into actual useless Roo forecasts. I'll be at the Hippie Jack Fest so I won't post any until Monday/Tuesday. By then we should have a few useless forecasts for the entire Roo weekend.
. . . weather forecasting is no better than throwing darts while blindfolded . . .
false ^
But! chaos theory does suggest that predictability decreases tremendously after ~2 weeks, even with nearly perfect observations and models. You may have heard of the "butterfly effect", which was originally about weather predictability. Again, more useful predictions will be possible when we get within a week or so.
Just because it's impossible won't stop Accuweather and other private industries from trying to sell the 'product' (long term forecasts). Please don't confuse what they do with forecasting.
Last Edit: May 24, 2011 15:18:43 GMT -5 by coldfrontin - Back to Top
^^Well we could also discuss the consequences of fractal mathematical theory on weather prediction but I'll stand by my previous statement. Throwing darts blindfolded has a certain element of predictability also so...
Enough of the geek weather modeling seminar. Suffice to say, we still know very little about what Roo weather will be.
^^Well we could also discuss the consequences of fractal mathematical theory on weather prediction but I'll stand by my previous statement. Throwing darts blindfolded has a certain element of predictability also so...
Enough of the geek weather modeling seminar. Suffice to say, we still know very little about what Roo weather will be.
Predicting weather is pointless. In the past four days (in NYC) it has gone from 50's to high 80's. It's gone from windy & dry to humid & stale. It's been gorgeous and sunny, rainy, and there have been thunderstorms.
Point being, just wait and see. You should come prepared for anything, anyway.
Post by coldfrontin on May 24, 2011 15:18:06 GMT -5
yeah... except fractal mathematics don't have a huge role in meteorology. I'm simply saying that predictability of the atmosphere tops out rather fast because of the butterfly effect... which I assume more people are familiar with than fractal math (thanks to Ashton Kutcher).
It's silly to compare weather forecasting to throwing darts. Why do people who think the weather is so unpredictable/unimportant bother with this thread?
Last Edit: May 24, 2011 15:22:21 GMT -5 by coldfrontin - Back to Top
As of now it's predicting high 80s. I'm actually starting to become a little scared of overheating, since I'll be coming from the north where it's 60s everyday :/
Last year the forecast was calling for scattered storms everyday. And how much rain did we get? Like a minute during the Avett Bros on Saturday. I did check some online sites and saw they're again calling for scattered storms everyday, but also found out that they're expecting this time of year in Manchester to be cooler and rainier than last year. I don't know about Manchester, but up here in Cincinnati we've pretty much had 2 months of straight rain. April was terrible, I think it didn't rain only 2 days out of the entire month. Recently we've been getting a lot of lightning/hail storms with the potential for tornados. If I knew it was gonna be like that at Roo, I wouldn't go. I mean really think about what would happen if we had those conditions during Roo. It could be more disastrous than Woodstock 99.
It's 95 degrees in Wilmington NC but by Thursday we're looking at highs of 80 and lows in the 60's. I am supremely hopeful I'm suffering through this as an early payment to the weather Gods of Roo who will look kindly upon us
Post by coldfrontin on May 24, 2011 16:11:32 GMT -5
Last year the prediction was that we'd get to a wet farm and then little or no chance of rain until Sunday, with extra hot temps.
"it looks like there's going to be a front moving through wednesday, so we will likely be showing up on a wet farm. also, just like last year, it is probably going to be storming or very close to storming most of thursday. rain is a lot less likely friday through sunday . . .
Also, count on it to be HOT! "
Last Edit: May 24, 2011 16:25:24 GMT -5 by coldfrontin - Back to Top
