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So it's looking like a hot/dry scorcher right now. However.... this is what an ensemble forecast (lots of model runs) looks like when you should have confidence in them. The tightly packed lines mean that the runs are in good agreement.
And here is what an ensemble looks like when you should have much less confidence (next Thursday):
See how none of them really agree about what's going to be happening? In other words, we might as well throw darts at a dart board.
But even in the forecast for 6/9, none of the jet streams even gets close to coming far enough south to bring any cooler air to the farm. So unless everyone of those models is wrong, its gonna be HOT. Damn!
Accuweather as of today. Note the lows in the upper 60's. This means high humidity (anyone surprised?) as it won't cool a lot. (In dry '97 it dropped to the 50's at night)
This also likely means a good chance of pop-up thunderstorms. This weather looks a lot like '04, the year of the monsoon.
Primus in the mud again, anyone?
Thursday Jun 9 Warm with clouds and sun 91°Lo 67°
Friday Jun 10 Mostly sunny and warm 92°Lo 68°
Saturday Jun 11 Partly sunny and warm 92°Lo 68°
Sunday Jun 12 Brilliant sunshine and warm 93°Lo 68°
I'm officially worried. I've known all along it was going to be hot, but I figured it would get hot here too so I could get used to it. Today was the first hot day in a long time, and it only hit 88. We have one day of 95, then it's going to be 71-79 every day until I leave.
How do you guys know there will be rain? (not doubting you, just curious)
I think I speak for a lot of us who survived the monsoon of 2004, that while the heat is terribly oppressive, it is still better than that fiasco.
Imagine cars stuck everywhere, all of centeroo was a huge mudpit, especially the main walkways. Even getting to centeroo from camp was a struggle that Saturday night since everywhere people walked instantly became a pit that ate your shoes.
How do you guys know there will be rain? (not doubting you, just curious)
It's near impossible to know for sure about rain at this point. The high humidity is a guarantee, this increases the likelihood for some pop up thunderstorms, but as far as prolonged periods of rain, we won't know for another week or so.
Post by Mista Don't Play on May 30, 2011 20:31:16 GMT -5
If the recent increase in heat around here is any indication, its going to be h-o-t. It definitely took a toll on me last year, but I think I would be more equipped to handle a repeat of last year than a 4 day long monsoon.
Accuweather as of today. Note the lows in the upper 60's. This means high humidity (anyone surprised?) as it won't cool a lot. (In dry '97 it dropped to the 50's at night)
This also likely means a good chance of pop-up thunderstorms. This weather looks a lot like '04, the year of the monsoon.
Primus in the mud again, anyone?
Thursday Jun 9 Warm with clouds and sun 91°Lo 67°
Friday Jun 10 Mostly sunny and warm 92°Lo 68°
Saturday Jun 11 Partly sunny and warm 92°Lo 68°
Sunday Jun 12 Brilliant sunshine and warm 93°Lo 68°
I think I speak for a lot of us who survived the monsoon of 2004, that while the heat is terribly oppressive, it is still better than that fiasco.
Imagine cars stuck everywhere, all of centeroo was a huge mudpit, especially the main walkways. Even getting to centeroo from camp was a struggle that Saturday night since everywhere people walked instantly became a pit that ate your shoes.
Thankfully, it's not the same farm as 2004. They've done A LOT to the grounds and much of that work has been focused on averting '04 like conditions, which were definitely nuts. Like every other year, folks should plan for it being hotter than the hinges of hell and some thunderstorms popping up at some point. Just thinking about it is sort of exhausting. Haha.
Post by plasticpepper on May 30, 2011 22:20:09 GMT -5
Blah, starting to look like the worst of both worlds - hot hot heat AND rain/storms/mud. Whose bright idea was it to have a music festival in Tennessee in June anyway?!
Post by coldfrontin on May 31, 2011 0:00:50 GMT -5
The jet stream generally stays north during the summer.
Also, the soil has been drying out a lot thanks to this ridge of death that has set up over the eastern US.
This isn't to say it won't be humid.. .but if the ridge persists, it will greatly reduce the chances of pop up storms, since high pressure/ridging is associated with widespread subsidence (sinking motion). Last year's roo was under a pretty good ridge, which is why it only sprinkled a little bit during Dead Weather #irony.
accuweather can suck it... I'm choosing to believe that it is 86degrees and partly cloudy until I get home from Roo. The weather can do what it wants, I'm just going to create my own reality.
i do that all the time and Bonnaroo has also led me to believe that sometimes things that are imagined can come to pass. there is no spoon!!!!!!
1-1-12 Bassnectar NYE SHOW! 1-21-12 G. Love and Special Sauce 3-1-12 Radiohead 3-9-12 Experience Hendrix 5-15-12 Jack White @ The Ryman 6-7-12 Bonnaroo 6-19-12 Roger Waters presents "THE WALL" 7-7-12 Ringo Starr's 72nd Birthday Party Extravaganza at the Ryman
I'm officially worried. I've known all along it was going to be hot, but I figured it would get hot here too so I could get used to it. Today was the first hot day in a long time, and it only hit 88. We have one day of 95, then it's going to be 71-79 every day until I leave.
How do you guys know there will be rain? (not doubting you, just curious)
Same here, I was outside a good chunk of the day and checked the weather for TN. I was like 'If it's only85 here and I'm pretty much sweating to death, how on earth am I going to handle temps 10+ degrees hotter, pretty sure I'm gonna die lol' My friend mentioned a portable misting fan, I'm gonna get one and keep that baby on hand
So now I'm seriously looking at some new cooling products. I already have a chillow which I love, as well as one of those hats with the crystals in them to stay cool. Any other great suggestions?
yesterday, today, and tomorrow are going to be record-breaking temps, so be prepared for hot, but i don't think it will be as hot as last year...last year, it got up to 100 (at least) every day, so low 90s will be a relief...of course, i'm used to it though, as i only live 20 min from the farm and always have lived here...it's still HOT though...
As I've said before, do not take too seriously the weather forecast 10 days out. Be prepared for heat but don't stress too much yet. It will be hot. How hot is undetermined.
Check out the different forecasts from these sites. Accuweather has actually increased temps since yesterday while weatherforyou.com has temps in the 80's. Accuweather is more likely but I'll take weatherforyou.com for sure!
Get yourself a SqueezBreeze...WalMart sells them. Fill with ice in the a.m., then mist and fan all day long. Essential! Evian also makes aerosol cans, but they can be pricey and don't have the fan option. I like to bring along a small, portable umbrella for when the sun is at its worst, and I always wear a hat. Always!
