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I usually stay pretty quiet the first couple of rounds until I am able to draw conclusions based on actions. The mafia wants to confuse you... don't let them know when you're vulnerable or they will only target you! Right now you guys are leaving the door wide open for them!
I agree with this line of thinking.
What do you make of all the vote swapping? I think we can all agree that it won't help the townspeople to make an informed decision.
What possible angle could the mafia be working here?
Post by ☮ superbek ☮ on May 18, 2011 8:29:40 GMT -5
Well I don'tnecessarily have any angles... just opinions.
All of this voting switching is not necessarily going to work out towards the townspeople advantage. In past games, day one which usually seems rather mundayne, actually comes into play later on in the game. This round is usually pretty cut and dry bc noboody knows who to vote for so a vote for person A is the same as a vote for person B... unless you're in the mafia, then you know exactly who to vote for. So the vote tallies may or may not help us later but they could potentially help us now...
Here is some kdogg logic previously used in another round: Statictically speaking, the mafia is guilty of stacking votes to put people in the run off in day one. There are four contestants in the run off, totaling eight votes. That means that there a potential that at least two, if not all three mafioso helped put those four people in the run off.
I think these are the people we should questions first and of course I have included our names as we are part of those statistics. However, please note that both mine and EAP's votes are retalliation votes for people who placed us in the run off so that is in need of special consideration imo. I'm probably painting a target on my back as I did last game but I'm in this run off and the only person who is going to try to preserve me is me and I don't really have any other choice. But then again, if I survive this round, the mafia could let me live to try to prove me wrong.
Also, below is the post tally (at time of press). Make of it what you will. Thread Views: 921 Total Posts: 121
User # of Posts baconus66 15 superfurryanimal 14 lovelucklaughter 13 quacker 12 NothingButFlowers 12 Mr. Forward 12 EAP 11 popsicle sarah 9 noage123 8 ☮ superbek ☮ 6 jhammett 5 Cap'n Jack 3 fawnmart 1 Mike D 1
Also, I think that it is a little strange that kdogg wanted to see me in a run off "bc I voted for him". Yeah, I have voted for him every time the first round for like the past 10 games with the exception of the one game where we both voted for hippienaustin bc she pissed us off (love you, Ash!). So yeah... not sure how that makes me run off worthy in his eyes.
However, please note that both mine and EAP's votes are retalliation votes for people who placed us in the run off so that is in need of special consideration imo.
Not true. EAP put me in the runoff, but I didn't put her in. My vote was for NBF. Noage put EAP in the runoff.
However, please note that both mine and EAP's votes are retalliation votes for people who placed us in the run off so that is in need of special consideration imo.
Not true. EAP put me in the runoff, but I didn't put her in. My vote was for NBF. Noage put EAP in the runoff.
You are correct... my bad. At one time she voted for both Jack and noage who are the two who voted her into the run off but then she ended up voting for you.
Sorry, I had a really busy weekend, and I am presently at software conference. I will check in twice a day, and try my best to remember to vote when I need to. That said, the people I wanted to see in the run off were quacker and bek, and since my vote for NBF is putting her in harms way, without a good reason, I am going to change my vote.
JHammett >>> NBF >>> Popsicle Sara
Lady Popsicle, I am not trying to accuse you of anything, and currently hold no ill will torwards you. I am voting for you because as it sits, you have 0 votes, and therefore my vote is not throwing you into a runoff.
Post by NothingButFlowers on May 18, 2011 22:42:10 GMT -5
^Yeah, I do, but I don't like the way he's hopped on the kdogg wagon, so I don't really want to vote with him right this minute. If I vote for quacker, I'm still doing what kdogg and jhammett have said should be done. I'm not really opposed to voting EAP, but my thought in voting you was that even though jhammett put you in the runoff, he then turned around and changed his vote off of you, making you the runoff player with the least votes, so that was why I decided on you.
^Yeah, I do, but I don't like the way he's hopped on the kdogg wagon, so I don't really want to vote with him right this minute. If I vote for quacker, I'm still doing what kdogg and jhammett have said should be done. I'm not really opposed to voting EAP, but my thought in voting you was that even though jhammett put you in the runoff, he then turned around and changed his vote off of you, making you the runoff player with the least votes, so that was why I decided on you.
Fair enough. I can buy that.
Maybe it's because I'm new to this game, but I don't at all understand the statistical theories that Kdogg and Bek are talking about. And I think of myself as reasonably intelligent. Is there another game of Mafia that I should read that will better help me understand? (I hope this isn't against the rules to ask about.)
Maybe it's because I'm new to this game, but I don't at all understand the statistical theories that Kdogg and Bek are talking about. And I think of myself as reasonably intelligent. Is there another game of Mafia that I should read that will better help me understand? (I hope this isn't against the rules to ask about.)
To save time, it might help you to go to a couple of the game threads. Look at the last ref post that tells who had what role. Then Scan through the first round of that game. Look at the vote tallies. Read the whole games when you get time, but if you look at the first rounds knowing who the Mafia members are. You can start seeing how they vote stack and take advantage of things going on in the game.
For example, Mafia 32 is the game that Bek referred to earlier, when her and Kdogg didn't follow there voting arrangement and the Mafia tried to use it against them. It's also a good game to read because the Townspeople nailed the mafia in three rounds. Your boyfriend was one of them. ;D Some of that was luck but.... bonnaroo.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=games&action=display&thread=23002&page=1
Edit to add: Also, take note of the mistakes townspeople make. In Mafia 32, I was a townie but was the one that brought up how weird the Kdogg/bek situation was. As Bek said earlier, the Mafia use stuff like that against us.
As to this game, I don't even know what to think. I'm keeping my vote for quacker for the time being.
Last Edit: May 19, 2011 0:25:54 GMT -5 by Deleted - Back to Top
Not true. EAP put me in the runoff, but I didn't put her in. My vote was for NBF. Noage put EAP in the runoff.
You are correct... my bad. At one time she voted for both Jack and noage who are the two who voted her into the run off but then she ended up voting for you.
Imo that makes no sense on her part.
I eliminated quacker and Sarah immediately. First game, first round, second chance. Although quacker will stay in my sights just in case because of all of the vote switching.
I think that Mafia was voting for Mafia in the first round to throw us off. I think that they then switched their votes to more strategic votes. I need to examine this further because it's hard to tell the who and the why yet.
So that leaves Bek and EAP. They are both on my list of "people who did some vote changing/and or voted for the unlikely suspects--the noobs". However, with the above posts, EAP actions seem more agenda based than Beks. And I agree with NBF about the Jhamm post.
We're all a mess of paradoxes. Believing in things we know can't be true. We walk around carrying feelings too complicated and contradictory to express. But when it all becomes too big, and words aren't enough to help get it all out, there's always music.
We're all a mess of paradoxes. Believing in things we know can't be true. We walk around carrying feelings too complicated and contradictory to express. But when it all becomes too big, and words aren't enough to help get it all out, there's always music.
We're all a mess of paradoxes. Believing in things we know can't be true. We walk around carrying feelings too complicated and contradictory to express. But when it all becomes too big, and words aren't enough to help get it all out, there's always music.
We're all a mess of paradoxes. Believing in things we know can't be true. We walk around carrying feelings too complicated and contradictory to express. But when it all becomes too big, and words aren't enough to help get it all out, there's always music.
The only thing that concerns me with EAP, is her need be given a reason for her vote. When at the time she asked it was pretty obvious what her choices where. Possible she would like something to fall back on later or it could be nothing.
Hmmmm... I still don't know what to make of Jhamm but I'm going to do what my gut says (over all the rumbling) and do this: quacker>>>Bek
Why did your gut lead you in this direction? What makes you feel comfortable with a vote for Bek? Other then it being to your benefit, against what Kdogg and Jham are thinking.
I spent 8+ hours in the office when I was scheduled for six, and then attended my first Democracy Addicts meetup tonight. That meant drinking. Still does.
I'm not sticking my neck out for jhamment - kill him next for all I care - but I am sticking my head out for something that I think has a logical foundation. OK, so maybe you think I'm an egotistical prick assuming that the Mafia is solely after me. That's fine, that's probably a fair assumption. But couldn't it also be a fair assumption that I'm one of the top three players the three Mafia would want to off? I get targeted as much as anyone else the Mafia would do... it's just that I come with the baggage of already having gotten a vote for Bek. She gets me into trouble like that sometimes.
The fact of the matter is, Bek keeps her vote for me steadfast, be she Mafia or not. It goes both ways. And when one of the first two votes for me has consistently been cast by Mafia a whole year now, that's fair grounds to consider her 50-50 chances regardless of role. Ergo, I know it's either Bek or the second person to vote for me - quacker.
I'm sure enough of it that I got a Brooers beer on it, pending endgame announcement. Any of you out there sure enough of that to put your beer where my mouth is?
Hmmmm... I still don't know what to make of Jhamm but I'm going to do what my gut says (over all the rumbling) and do this: quacker>>>Bek
Why did your gut lead you in this direction? What makes you feel comfortable with a vote for Bek? Other then it being to your benefit, against what Kdogg and Jham are thinking.
Well, the most thought-provoking post I've read was when Jhammet wrote right out of the blue that he wanted to see me and Bek in a runoff. He's also jumped in and changed his vote to Bek in the guise of saving PopsicleSarah or NBF or something like that. So I don't know what to make of it but it's suspicious. He could be Mafia and trying to direct Townies only to a runoff or he could be the Inspector and trying to lead people to Bek because he knows that she is Mafia. All of the other posts and partnerships seem to be just normal partherships. I don't recall any other posts that are so directive towards a player that is not a voting partner.
Edit: I meant to explain why I'm not voting for Jhamm. He could be the inspector and I would hate to kill the inspector off the first round. But if I get the impression (and am stilll breathing) after this round that he is not the inspector I would have to consider him for my next vote.
how did i get to be the guilty party here! nothing i did was life changing??? yet several other people have saved others from runoffs, and i'm the guilty one???
LLL, what agenda do i have???? if i had an agenda why would i dillydally on my vote and ask others??? seems pretty stupid, if i had something up my sleeve that needed to be put into motion.
and you guys are dumbos if you think first time players can't be mafia.
all i can say is you guys would be making a HUGE mistake if you kill me off now.
read into that what you will.
i'm nulling my vote until someone gets some sense.
Because I never intended to push Popsicle Sarah into a runoff, I will change my vote.
JHammett >>> NBF >>> Popsicle Sarah >>> Bek
Sorry, gotta side with KDogg on this one.
This post is bothering me.
Glad I'm not the only one. It seems fishy that jhammett says he never meant to put Popsicle Sarah into a run-off, implying that he wasn't 100% sure of his choice in the first place, and that it was just kind of a default vote until he had something more solid to go on.
Lady Popsicle, I am not trying to accuse you of anything, and currently hold no ill will torwards you. I am voting for you because as it sits, you have 0 votes, and therefore my vote is not throwing you into a runoff.
But then he goes and votes for Bek (who he hadn't previously expressed any suspicion about), taking her out of a tie and putting her in the lead - possibly to protect someone else who was in the run-off. This just seems really shady to me, and his vote seem to belie his reasoning.
Maybe it's because I'm new to this game, but I don't at all understand the statistical theories that Kdogg and Bek are talking about. And I think of myself as reasonably intelligent. Is there another game of Mafia that I should read that will better help me understand? (I hope this isn't against the rules to ask about.)
Honestly, I'm not new to the game and I also consider myself reasonably intelligent, but about half of what kdogg says goes right past me. I believe his main argument this time, though, is that in the last year, if he was a townsperson, a mafia member voted for him in the first round every single time. Therefore, he thinks that either quacker or superbek is mafia because they both voted for him in first round voting.
LLL, are you saying that you plan on giving Sarah less attention the whole game because she's a new player or just this round?
EAP, I know you're in the running for killin' and all, but you seem uber-defensive. (Also, did you really call LLL a dumbo? Do you think perhaps you are spending too much time with your students? )
EAP, I know you're in the running for killin' and all, but you seem uber-defensive. (Also, did you really call LLL a dumbo? Do you think perhaps you are spending too much time with your students? )
Hey now... Texas has a lot of catching up to do. Those kids need all the help they can get.
Know what I think? Odds of being Mafia = 3 in 11 Players voting EAP = 4 in 11
I wouldn't be surprised if we had one Mafia in the runoff. I wouldn't be surprised if we had one Mafia voting EAP. I already said I got a beer on either Bek&quacker being Mafia. The likelihood of EAP having a Mafia currently voting for her makes me think they don't mind if she dies. As such, I think Townspeople ought to channel their votes away from her.
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