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This is pretty easy to predict with the adds on the website and app.
My guesses (estimated on 80,000 people in attendance):
LARGEST CROWDS 1. Matt & Kim (30,000+) - The Other Tent - no huge direct competition 2. Animal Collective (30,000+) - This Tent - and more once Pretty Lights ends. Porter Robinson will take the young kids from PL as well 3. ZZ Top (25,000+) - This Tent - only 3 groups/DJs playing and all very different genres 4. alt-j (25,000+) - This Tent - no large direct competition - maybe the largest crowd ever for a Thu act 5. Billy Idol (22,000+) - That Tent - Al will take some of his fanbase away and I've never seen a Superjam be that crowded as people start to loose interest after 5-6 songs 6. Tame Impala (22,000+) - The Other Tent - larger at the end - people are underestimating how popular Edward Sharpe are + The National will cut into this as well 7. A$AP Rocky (21,000+) - The Other Tent - most of the under 20 crowd will be here which much older skewing acts closing out the festival + left over from Tame Impala 8. Empire of the Sun (20,000+) - That Tent - no direct competition at the start - huge draw for 16-25 year-olds 9. Beach House (20,000+) - This Tent - 75% of the remaining crowd that isn't at Bjork as they'll go Beach House > Lumineers > Mumford 10. Walk The Moon (18,000+) - The Other Tent - no large popular competition - popular genre
MOST CROWDED (figuring This Tent is the largest, That Tent is 10% smaller that This, The Other Tent is 10% smaller than That - feel free to disagree about this): 1. Matt & Kim 2. Animal Collective 3. Tame Impala 4. A$AP Rocky 5. ZZ Top
no way 40% of bonnaroo is at animal collective at 2am, let alone 4.
you're right the numbers can be skewed a little bit as you can add multiple artists playing at the same time - but I don't think that the Pretty Lights crowd will be insanely larger than Animal Collective. I'm guessing 35-40,000 people at Pretty Lights and 30,000 at Animal Collective as there will be less than 10,000 at Porter Robinson.
I liked looking at this so here is how I see the late night acts being filled (grouped them based on time)
FRIDAY LN #1 Wu-Tang (35,000+) ZZ Top (25,000+) Wolfgang (10,000+) Total 70,000
FRIDAY LN #2 Pretty Lights (37,000+) Animal Collective (30,000+) Porter Robinson (9,000+) Total 76,000 (agree this is high as people start to get tired and go back to camp)
SAT LN #1 R. Kelly (25,000+) SuperJam (18,000+) Billy Idol (22,000+) Weird Al (8,000+) Total 73,000
SAT LN #2 Bustle (3,000+) Empire of the Sun (15,000+) Boys Noize (10,000+) Total 28,000 (plus whatever they add to That Tent which is needed as none of these are crazy popular)
Last Edit: May 28, 2013 14:11:02 GMT -5 by hcmg - Back to Top
no way 40% of bonnaroo is at animal collective at 2am, let alone 4.
you're right the numbers can be skewed a little bit as you can add multiple artists playing at the same time - but I don't think that the Pretty Lights crowd will be insanely larger than Animal Collective. I'm guessing 35-40,000 people at Pretty Lights and 30,000 at Animal Collective as there will be less than 10,000 at Porter Robinson.
I liked looking at this so here is how I see the late night acts being filled (grouped them based on time)
FRIDAY LN #1 Wu-Tang (35,000+) ZZ Top (25,000+) Wolfgang (10,000+) Total 70,000
FRIDAY LN #2 Pretty Lights (37,000+) Animal Collective (30,000+) Porter Robinson (9,000+) Total 76,000 (agree this is high as people start to get tired and go back to camp)
SAT LN #1 R. Kelly (25,000+) SuperJam (18,000+) Billy Idol (22,000+) Weird Al (8,000+) Total 73,000
SAT LN #2 Bustle (3,000+) Empire of the Sun (15,000+) Boys Noize (10,000+) Total 28,000 (plus whatever they add to That Tent which is needed as none of these are crazy popular)
old people that buy into a festival headlined by paul mccartney mumford and sons and tom petty will not be at any of those shows.
Based on the "adds" listed on the site ES&MZ has roughly twice as many as Tame Impala at 15,000 to 8,700. With The National coming on in the middle, I'd say Tame Impala will be busy but not insane. Matt & Kim has an absurd number of adds and is up against only Nas and Dirty Projectors. That'll be a mess along with Alt-J (which we all know) and probably Purity Ring.
Also what world do you live in hcmg where we are getting 6,000 MORE people for Friday LN #2 than #1, and where we lose 45,000 people between Sat LN #1 and #2?
Post by pondo ROCKS on May 28, 2013 14:40:01 GMT -5
I think one clusterfuck we may have forgotten about is Thursday night at the Cinema Tent, with Polyphonic Spree playing and The Rocky Horror Picture Show afterward. While it obviously will not house as many as a tent, I expect it to be packed and a lot of people waiting to get in.
Providing an outlet and a voice for music lovers to unite under the common theme of music for all. Join The Pondo Army to show your allegiance to musical freedom! Fighting for no censorship of the arts & music education in schools, The Pondo Army will triumph! The Pondo Army Movement
Follow me on twitter@Pondoknowsbest
I think one clusterquack we may have forgotten about is Thursday night at the Cinema Tent, with Polyphonic Spree playing and The Rocky Horror Picture Show afterward. While it obviously will not house as many as a tent, I expect it to be packed and a lot of people waiting to get in.
Also the Trapped in the Closet sing-a-long with people expecting an R Kelly appearance (I will probably be there myself, but that's more because I'll need to keep myself busy while waiting for friends to arrive).
Based on the "adds" listed on the site ES&MZ has roughly twice as many as Tame Impala at 15,000 to 8,700. With The National coming on in the middle, I'd say Tame Impala will be busy but not insane. Matt & Kim has an absurd number of adds and is up against only Nas and Dirty Projectors. That'll be a mess along with Alt-J (which we all know) and probably Purity Ring.
Also what world do you live in hcmg where we are getting 6,000 MORE people for Friday LN #2 than #1, and where we lose 45,000 people between Sat LN #1 and #2?
It's all about the acts that are playing and this is just what the ads are telling me. I figured I'd put some numbers behind my guesses instead of just listing 5 bands without any reasoning included.
I agree that not everyone will make it to the Pretty Lights > Animal Collective shows on Friday, but outside of Wu-Tang those are the two highest added LN artists.
I'm still saying for Friday late night that 50% of the REMAINING crowd will be at Pretty Lights 40% at Animal Collective and 10% at Porter Robinson. But is that 50,000 maybe 60,000 that make it for the start of those sets? But I agree with what someone else said - the end of Animal Collective (around 4 AM) won't have more than 10,000 people at the show.
As for the huge drop off on the second round Saturday late night - tell me what artist will have more than 20,000 people? Empire of the Sun could be close to that but Bustle and Boys Noize will be smaller crowds. I'm assuming most people don't make it past 1:30 AM on Saturday.
I think one clusterquack we may have forgotten about is Thursday night at the Cinema Tent, with Polyphonic Spree playing and The Rocky Horror Picture Show afterward. While it obviously will not house as many as a tent, I expect it to be packed and a lot of people waiting to get in.
Capital Cities in the Lounge is also going to be crazy packed. that band is getting radio play and they have them on that little stage with not much opposition.
I think one clusterquack we may have forgotten about is Thursday night at the Cinema Tent, with Polyphonic Spree playing and The Rocky Horror Picture Show afterward. While it obviously will not house as many as a tent, I expect it to be packed and a lot of people waiting to get in.
Capital Cities in the Lounge is also going to be crazy packed. that band is getting radio play and they have them on that little stage with not much opposition.
Wow good find! I forgot they were even on the lineup...yes this could be pretty nutzo
Providing an outlet and a voice for music lovers to unite under the common theme of music for all. Join The Pondo Army to show your allegiance to musical freedom! Fighting for no censorship of the arts & music education in schools, The Pondo Army will triumph! The Pondo Army Movement
Follow me on twitter@Pondoknowsbest
I think one clusterquack we may have forgotten about is Thursday night at the Cinema Tent, with Polyphonic Spree playing and The Rocky Horror Picture Show afterward. While it obviously will not house as many as a tent, I expect it to be packed and a lot of people waiting to get in.
Capital Cities in the Lounge is also going to be crazy packed. that band is getting radio play and they have them on that little stage with not much opposition.
Ya.. And don't forget Maps & Atlases are on right before them. That show will be nuts packed.
