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How accurate can predictions even be this far out?
Pinpoint forecasts like these? At 30 days out, it's a total crapshoot. You're probably better off forecasting based on climatology (long-term averages). Unless the models pick up on a stable pattern that is expected to persist for several days, specific forecasts for temperature and precipitation beyond 5-7 days should be largely ignored. I get that some people are intrigued by a 30-day forecast, but it doesn't add anything of value. The National Weather Service does issue climatic outlooks (6-10 day, 8-14 day, 30-day, and 90-day), but these products only show the likelihood of above/below average temperature and precipitation during the specified period. And even these predictions don't have the greatest track record.
Also, I should note that AccuWeather isn't taken seriously in the meteorology community. Nor should they be. AccuWeather has donated to politicians in hope of pressuring Congress to eliminate/privatize the National Weather Service.
That was a very sexy post! I like the cut of your jib!
I really wish the weather at Bonnaroo would be like it is in Memphis today. Mild and sunny. I sat in my back yard all day watching the hummingbirds eat from my feeder. And the neighborhood bunny came to visit.
Bunnies!!! Ya gotta love bunnies...next best thing to unicorns.
They have a way of brightening my day. I also have turtles that like to come visit after a good, heavy rain. And very colorful lizards, also. I also see deer on my drive to work. I love living close to the woods.
Post by F me, I quit America on May 15, 2016 11:27:15 GMT -5
So some people hate AccuWeather and some use it, whatever. We know that no forecast over 5 days or so is going to be reliable. But it doesn't hurt to look at longer-term trends and maybe get a feel for what are likely possibilities. We go through this every year, and what we know for sure is it is going to be hot, it will likely rain a bit at some point (true any time you're in most places for 4-5 days), and there is a chance of it raining a LOT. Too early to tell yet, so just plan on being prepared. Bring muck boots, bring tarps, a fan if you've got one, don't forget your rainfly if using a tent, and pray you don't need any of that.
Most likely not. But on the strange off chance that the weather of 2012 were to repeat itself you would likely want one fer nighttime. Always be prepared at 'Roo!
2011. Hot as feck. People praying for rain. By 6:30 am, tents were like saunas.
2011 was definitely hot and dusty, but I think 2010 was probably hotter. I heard that Saturday set a record. 2012 had a little rain and was much, much cooler - very nice, really. 2013 - don't remember the temps, but we had some rain, especially Sunday night, and some mud. 2014 - rain Wednesday then dried out, and not too incredibly hot, IIRC. 2015 - kinda hot but pretty pleasant overall, no rain.
Mud is always a concern, but finally fixing the Which Ditch has alleviated some of that. Now that I've said that, my car will probably be swallowed by a bottomless mud pit upon arrival.
uv_ajed--my poor tired and old eyes read your signature as the Cadavers. Made me think of Zombies trying to play basketball: (waves arm) "I'M OPEN!! I'M OPEN!! PASS IT HERE!! (arm falls off) Oh, Hell, never mind...."
2011. Hot as feck. People praying for rain. By 6:30 am, tents were like saunas.
Last year, in pod 10, we were dying of humidity when you heard a few rain drops. The rain came down for maybe 3 minutes, but it was enough to get everyone out of their EZ ups and standing it. Also, there was a lot of cheering and clapping going on, too. People at roo really like a shower.
2014 had amazing weather. It even got cold enough at night that I would wake up shivering.
Lemme tall ha, it has been quite hot and dry here about an hour from the farm. they have gotten more rain there than I have, but it was unseasonably hot and dry for the month of April. I have been trying to grow grass so not so good for me. Hopefully the weather will settle into a good pattern for Bonnaroo.
Lemme tall ha, it has been quite hot and dry here about an hour from the farm. they have gotten more rain there than I have, but it was unseasonably hot and dry for the month of April. I have been trying to grow grass so not so good for me. Hopefully the weather will settle into a good pattern for Bonnaroo.
This time last year, Arkansas was holding upper 80s pretty strong, if not the 90s. The day I left for Bonnaroo, Little Rock was higher 90s while Manchester was calling for lower 90s. It was still humid, but it was cooler at roo than at my house.
With that being said, this year, we have some 80s days, but mostly we are in the 60-70s and haven't had but 1 day in the 90s a few weeks back. I'm predicting a cooler than normal roo this year. I can't say if it'll rain, and I'm sure it'll be humid AF because it's summer and in Tennessee, but I have a feeling it will be better than last year. According to my roo crew, think positive thoughts and it will happen.
Lemme tall ha, it has been quite hot and dry here about an hour from the farm. they have gotten more rain there than I have, but it was unseasonably hot and dry for the month of April. I have been trying to grow grass so not so good for me. Hopefully the weather will settle into a good pattern for Bonnaroo.
This time last year, Arkansas was holding upper 80s pretty strong, if not the 90s. The day I left for Bonnaroo, Little Rock was higher 90s while Manchester was calling for lower 90s. It was still humid, but it was cooler at roo than at my house.
With that being said, this year, we have some 80s days, but mostly we are in the 60-70s and haven't had but 1 day in the 90s a few weeks back. I'm predicting a cooler than normal roo this year. I can't say if it'll rain, and I'm sure it'll be humid AF because it's summer and in Tennessee, but I have a feeling it will be better than last year. According to my roo crew, think positive thoughts and it will happen.
Same here. In NOLA last year it was balls hot and he had hit a few 90s days, but mostly upper 80s. We have been in the 80s, but NOTHING compared to last year. I am finger crossing to a less hot roo than last year.
Post by huskielb41 on May 27, 2016 10:20:06 GMT -5
After watching the last week of Manchester weather, It seems like temperatures have been on par with seasonal averages as of late, but there definitely seems to be a greater lack of precipitation lately. Can anyone who lives in the area confirm this? I'm starting to think we could be in for a lost of dust this year if forecast's stay dry.
Post by thesidebar on May 27, 2016 10:47:05 GMT -5
Nashville has had some decent rains. as you get more towards the southeast, it gets much more dry. Chattanooga is over 4 inches below average right now. I live about 45 mins southeast of the farm and we have not had any significant rainfall in a several weeks. when it has rained it has been short lived and spotty. It has been hot and dry. I am predicting another Dustaroo this year. sorry folks. it is DRY DRY here and has been quite hot, we had a few cooler days last week but no significant rainfall. Unless it rains significantly every other day or more between now and Roo, expect the topsoil to be dry and the ground to be hard. we need a weeks worth of 1 inch per day to really catch up and green things up.
Nashville has had some decent rains. as you get more towards the southeast, it gets much more dry. Chattanooga is over 4 inches below average right now. I live about 45 mins southeast of the farm and we have not had any significant rainfall in a several weeks. when it has rained it has been short lived and spotty. It has been hot and dry. I am predicting another Dustaroo this year. sorry folks. it is DRY DRY here and has been quite hot, we had a few cooler days last week but no significant rainfall. Unless it rains significantly every other day or more between now and Roo, expect the topsoil to be dry and the ground to be hard. we need a weeks worth of 1 inch per day to really catch up and green things up.
This is pretty much spot on. If you take a look at the observed precipitation estimates from the National Weather Service, much of south-central and southeastern Tennessee have had a very dry spring. Over the March-May period, these areas are running anywhere from 4" to 8" below normal in terms of total precipitation. The last 30 days have been extremely dry (less than 50% of normal observed precipitation).
It's happened before, either last year or the year before. Big storms, lots of rain multiple days leading right up to Thursday. Cars were getting stuck at the tollbooths and getting pushed to get through huge puddles. We all thought we were in for a classic mud-a-roo.
Then Thursday hit, lots of sun, no rain for the rest of the weekend. Most of the grounds were dry by the afternoon, bone dry by Friday. We were shocked.
