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I think it's safe to say that Potent goes back to me again? I also think it's safe to say you aren't voting for yourself here.
So barring any major change or unexpected move by the other yet to vote... your vote either kills myself or Thor, or makes a three-way D1R3 between me/Thor/Viking. Yeah?
I wasn't really considering Potent's vote as a sure bet either way. I was more focused on if I wanted you or Viking to move forward, as Thor was already in. The confusion is likely my fault, looking back at my post I went full on dyslexic in that first paragraph. And no, I wasn't entertaining the notion of forcing more vote switches by upping someone to 4 votes.
MY thought process was basically that if there is something shady to all this 3-way/4-way/5-way runoff talk and vote switches then perhaps both sides should go forward into the runoff? The town might get more info that way. Having said that, if you read the last game you'll know that my voting based on what I thought would gather the most info ended up hurting the the town in the end.
So I'll be more selfish here and vote based on not fully trusting Viking's "luck vote." SFA>>> Viking
I don't need to proceed justifying myself. Anyone with half a brain can comprehend my votes and reasoning. If you think I was being rash, fine. But there is nothing more to explain on my end.
Post by potentpotables on Jul 4, 2016 19:21:33 GMT -5
I'm trying not to vote for KDogg out of spite because yet again he's reading something into my vote that's not there. Remember last time that happened when we played together? It cost the townies the game. Stop trying to read things that aren't there right now.
potentpotables I'd also like to point out that during the last time I played, I was the only Townsperson to vote for all three Mafia over the course of the game.
potentpotables I'd also like to point out that during the last time I played, I was the only Townsperson to vote for all three Mafia over the course of the game.
Interesting. I just checked that game (Mafia 90). You voted for 8 of the 10 players in the game at one point or another, and the two you didn't vote for were the first day lynch (Carini) and the first night whack (Jaz), so had the cards fallen differently you would have voted for them, I'm sure.
So are we really bragging about this as an accomplishment?
Potent > SFA > KDogg
You allow Viking to vote for you and Mike D/SFA reciprocating (which, by the way, can't be the case for Mike D since he did it first) but call my Carini vote suspicious, and you blame me for Danbob voting for me. I just can't let it go.
potentpotables I'd also like to point out that during the last time I played, I was the only Townsperson to vote for all three Mafia over the course of the game.
Interesting. I just checked that game (Mafia 90). You voted for 8 of the 10 players in the game at one point or another, and the two you didn't vote for were the first day lynch (Carini) and the first night whack (Jaz), so had the cards fallen differently you would have voted for them, I'm sure.
So are we really bragging about this as an accomplishment?
Potent > SFA > KDogg
Haha, way to call out KDogg on his bullshit.
Most people who play with me know by now I'm usually pretty quiet in the first round; this is no exception. I've been loosely following the game but so far I'm satisfied with the runoff and see no need to move my vote.
Should be interesting to see where Mike D and Viking place their votes assuming the runoff stays as is. I can't complain. At least it should be good information on 2 tougher to read players.
Yes. Any time I am closing a deal or getting notice of a major contract award I wear it. Hockey players tend to be superstitious. We all have our flaws, and this is one of mine.
In this game, SFA is my lucky tshirt. He has had the honor of touching my nipples many times.
I just looked back at some mafia games and it looks like the last time there was a three way runoff d1r1 was mafia 71. I'll dig into it more after church but none of the three mafia were included in the 3 way d1r1 runoff and mafia ended up winning the game. Interesting to note that Jimmy was also mafia that game (not saying I think he is mafia right now but it bears mentioning). I personally would like a runoff of 4 players but it doesn't look like that will happen unless zig or potent move off of kdogg. I'm keeping my vote where it is right now in hopes that one of them moves off of kdogg.
You remind me of an Alice Cooper Limo driver. Curiously well informed.
Guns N Roses didn't end until nearly midnight, I didn't get home until 4:00am, and I didn't get out of bed until nearly 1:00. Viking had a similar "morning after" post following the Friday show. Worth it.
Glad I said my piece earlier. I know I did something to piss somebody off to get those four votes over the course of D1R1 alone. But I'm not in the mood for thinking today.
You got mine because GnFnR. Plus, history. Your "it makes sense" made sense to me if not to everyone else. Not sure why you backpedaled on it though...
I'm not quite sure what I want to do yet. I can see both Kdogg and Thor's arguments. I just can't tell if both are being sincere. While both of them have some valid concerns, there seems to be a good deal of conjecture which leads to sift through. But this is mafia, most of the time we are flying blind and making arguments based on our gut. Can't really fault either of them. I do the same thing.
Viking stayed on his gimmick vote for me and has got me placed in the runoff. He's done this before and, if I recall correctly, he'd done it regardless of his role. It's hard to say otherwise because he's been so quite. It's also worth noting that the people voting for him haven't had much to say either.
Going to mow and think about all this.
Its not a gimmick. It is a tried and tested lucky device. Plus, I prefer to know where you stand early on. Still not sure on that account (and you have had some curious recent posts), but given what has happened thus far, I am unsure that we will uncover that on Day 1. But rest assured, the eye is always watching...
Ok, separate post with where my head is at at this point.
Normally, I would be hammering on the watchers, but given that it was a holiday, (and being a bit self serving) I will give them a pass for the time being. However, there is enough meat to start to tear into so now is the time the watchers have been watching for.
On my initial read, I had though the watcher group would actually be a bit bigger given some of the posting, but a few players came alive later in the round after the post count was posted. Post counts are a single data point, but in combination with other pieces, can be a bit revealing. The one that makes me nervous is SFA. (Hence why I never changed my vote) He is a student of voting patterns and does not typically rely on post counts, but several of his posts had a more "fluffy" feel. I need to go back and mine them but I cant at the moment, and want to keep this rather concise. I have 20+ quotes open and to include them all would be overload.
However, taking into account the above, and past patterns, there is likely a mafia member in the talkers (given the amount of talking going on), one in the watchers, and a wildcard (hence looking at post post-count movement).
Second, this runoff has a lot of the usual suspects in it. It was said earlier but KDogg and I end up in a disproportionate number of Day 1 runoffs. LD, roonectar and a few others fit into the same boat and it is absolutely because of how we play. I will not begrudge Rummy her right to vote for me, but as was said,
Rummy could be Mafia and using the "history" she has with Viking to justify voting a townie.
Either way, as I said above, I am willing to give it a pass day 1. What is more curious to me is Jaz, placing a stacking vote for "no reason at all" and then just abandoning the thread until about an hour ago. Given all that has happened, I would be curious as to his reason now.
The same is true with the votes for KDogg. Jimmy knows KDogg is a target and even said he was voting for him for historical reasons. However, KDogg had not gone full conspiracy theory when Jimmy made that claim. Jimmy claims it got him to stop posting theories here,
First he pushes kdogg up to three votes - forcing the at most a three way runoff.
Then after some pushback he says "that worked" and voted for potent for no other reason than my vote was also on potent. Soon after kdogg creates a 5 way runoff.
After seeing kdogg expand the the runoff Thor then goes off on kdogg and reverts his vote back to kdogg (once again forcing a three way runoff at most). If no one had moved off of kdogg it means that two people would have had to leave the runoff. By switching his vote from potent to kdogg Thor decides who one of those players will be (unless two people would have magically voted for potent to bring him back into the runoff). I'm not saying that potent is scum but it is worth mentioning.
Why was Thor so aggressively trying to push a three way runoff? Was there more of a reason for his vote on potent besides me? What does "that worked" mean?
We definitely need more answers then what we have.
danbob > Thor
1. My 3-stack on Kdogg did initially work, in that it got him to stop spouting off nonsense where he was making theories about round first round initial votes.
2. At the time, prior to ZIG's case study, I think everyone would agree that as a whole town was opposed to 5 way runoffs. When Kdogg made a 5 way runoff, i felt he genuinely needed to be guaranteed to advance because he didn't seem to be acting in the best interests of the town.
3. There is no genuine proof that there is something wrong with a 3-way runoff. There is therefore no reason to take issue with me stacking up Kdogg unless you're Mafia with him.
4. Maybe Potent is "scum." I have no idea.
but it actually increased KDogg's volume. All he did was shine a really bright light on KDogg and turned the light away from himself. KDogg has done a ton to make himself look suspicious (which we will get to in a minute) but the abnormal piece is actually Jimmy's response.
I have more but long and short is that I think that there is a mafia member between KDogg and Thor. I have not gotten to KDogg's posts in this post yet, but given the close and my meeting schedule, it will have to wait until after this runoff closes. I would like to reserve judgement at the moment and I would like a 3 person runoff so we have a bit more time, so I am not going to super stack. Plus, I am nervous about SFA, so I am ok with where my vote is.
My vote is staying, and I have more thoughts, just no more time.
WLViking in re my vote for you: you're a big talker, which makes me wary because of your tendency to obfuscate. While you're not a player that I see cracking under pressure, it can be worth seeing who doesn't want to vote for you and who does.
You said yourself that you tend to find yourself in D1 runoffs often - and you admit that it's because of the way you play. I'm just helping you make the bed for you to lay in.
As for my absence - like I said, I'm usually exceptionally quiet Day 1, and life has been quite busy the past several days. I agree with your assessment of Talkers/Watchers though and how the Mafia might be split. Though generally you're the player I trust the least from game to game so I'm not paying you much mind just yet.
Checking back in, I don't see any reason to move my vote right now. Not suspicious of SFA but no sense in moving right now. After an initial read I would say I am most suspicious of Viking at the moment. His comment about Kdogg weaseling his was out of the runoff earlier doesn't sit right considering Viking has his vote on Kdogg earlier in the game, then moved to SFA. If you wanted Kdogg in there or thought it was strange he wouldn't be in the runoff at that time why didn't you move your vote? As it stands now though Kdogg is back in the runoff with Vikings vote about to reset along with mine. I am sure there will be more I see after another read.
I normally don't like to wade into the post count zone until the end of Day 1, but the cat is out of the bag since Danbob posted some mid-day numbers. I normally like to see how the post counts look without knowing that players have reacted to an earlier post count that gets posted mid-day. This helps me a bit knowing players weren't influenced to post more by someone calling them out.
I did, however, find that this game would be unique compared to most game since we have a lot of "talkers" playing. Normally, we have 1 or 2 talkers and the rest fall on the average or quiet side. When the game started, I mentally grouped players into categories based on how active they play in Mafia.
Consistent Talker Kdogg Rummy SFA Viking ZIG
Average Talkers: Carini Jaz Potent Thor
Consistent Watcher Mike D
Unknown / Noob Danbob (I assumed he would be a talker based on his heavy input on the boards in a relatively short period of time, and I think that was a correct assessment).
Viking, I find your list interesting because when I bump it up against how I expected players to contribute, there are some noticeable differences.
Checking back in, I don't see any reason to move my vote right now. Not suspicious of SFA but no sense in moving right now. After an initial read I would say I am most suspicious of Viking at the moment. His comment about Kdogg weaseling his was out of the runoff earlier doesn't sit right considering Viking has his vote on Kdogg earlier in the game, then moved to SFA. If you wanted Kdogg in there or thought it was strange he wouldn't be in the runoff at that time why didn't you move your vote? As it stands now though Kdogg is back in the runoff with Vikings vote about to reset along with mine. I am sure there will be more I see after another read.
Sorry if I was premature on the post count. In hindsight I definitely shouldn't have been as critical on a holiday weekend and only halfway through r1.
^^Basically Potent and Thor seem to be more active than usual, while Viking and Rummy less active than usual.
Everyone else seems to be playing about how they normally play so far; some more annoying than others...
re: me, how do you figure? This is my 8th post this game. In the last game, at a comparable point of the end of the first runoff (Mafia 92 for reference) I had somewhere around 12 posts.
^^Basically Potent and Thor seem to be more active than usual, while Viking and Rummy less active than usual.
Everyone else seems to be playing about how they normally play so far; some more annoying than others...
I wouldn't say I'm more active than usual. I'm probably about the same as I always am, which is relatively active without being one of the top 2 posters.
There's some x-factors here, both general and specific.
Holiday weekend is a big factor here. Roles change from game to game, which could affect post counts. Referee sought our engagement on deadlines & such at the start, and not all answered. (And in my case, I have a couple of D1R1 tally posts in my count too.)
Not saying I'm not a talker, because I am... but I don't know if everything is an apples-to-apples comparison here.
