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In India — where the Delta variant was first identified and caused a huge outbreak — cases have plunged over the past two months. A similar drop may now be underway in Britain. There is no clear explanation for these declines.
In the U.S., cases started falling rapidly in early January. The decline began before vaccination was widespread and did not follow any evident changes in Americans’ Covid attitudes.
In March and April, the Alpha variant helped cause a sharp rise in cases in the upper Midwest and Canada. That outbreak seemed poised to spread to the rest of North America — but did not.
This spring, caseloads were not consistently higher in parts of the U.S. that had relaxed masking and social distancing measures (like Florida and Texas) than in regions that remained vigilant.
Large parts of Africa and Asia still have not experienced outbreaks as big as those in Europe, North America and South America.
How do we solve these mysteries? Michael Osterholm, who runs an infectious disease research center at the University of Minnesota, suggests that people keep in mind one overriding idea: humility.
“We’ve ascribed far too much human authority over the virus,” he told me.
‘Much, much milder’ Over the course of this pandemic, I have found one of my early assumptions especially hard to shake. It’s one that many other people seem to share — namely, that a virus always keeps spreading, eventually infecting almost the entire population, unless human beings take actions to stop it. And this idea does have crucial aspects of truth. Social distancing and especially vaccination can save lives.
But much of the ebb and flow of a pandemic cannot be explained by changes in human behavior. That was true with influenza a century ago, and it is true with Covid now. An outbreak often fizzles mysteriously, like a forest fire that fails to jump from one patch of trees to another.
Even Osterholm said that he had assumed the spring surge would spread from Michigan and his home state of Minnesota to the entire U.S. It did not. It barely spread to nearby Iowa and Ohio. Whatever the reasons, the pattern shows that the mental model many of us have — in which only human intervention can have a major effect on caseloads — is wrong.
Britain has become another example. The Delta variant is even more contagious than Alpha, and it seemed as though it might infect every unvaccinated British resident after it began spreading in May. Some experts predicted that the number of daily cases would hit 200,000, more than three times the country’s previous peak. Instead, cases peaked — for now — around 47,000, before falling below 30,000 this week.
“The current Delta wave in the U.K. is turning out to be much, much milder than we anticipated,” wrote David Mackie, J.P. Morgan’s chief European economist.
True, you can find plenty of supposed explanations, including the end of the European soccer tournament, the timing of school vacations and Britain’s notoriously late-arriving summer weather, as Mark Landler, The Times’s London bureau chief, has noted. But none of the explanations seem nearly big enough to explain the decline, especially when you consider that India has also experienced a boom and bust in caseloads. India, of course, did not play in Europe’s soccer championship and is not known for cool June weather.
‘Rip through’ A more plausible explanation appears to be that Delta spreads very quickly at first and, for some unknown set of reasons, peters out long before a society has reached herd immunity. As Andy Slavitt, a former Covid adviser to President Biden, told me, “It seems to rip through really fast and infect the people it’s going to infect.” The most counterintuitive idea here is that an outbreak can fade even though many people remain vulnerable to Covid.
That’s not guaranteed to happen everywhere, and there probably will be more variants after Delta. Remember: Covid behaves in mysterious ways. But Americans should not assume that Delta is destined to cause months of rising caseloads. Nor should they assume that a sudden decline, if one starts this summer, fits a tidy narrative that attributes the turnaround to rising vaccination and mask wearing.
“These surges have little to do with what humans do,” Osterholm argues. “Only recently, with vaccines, have we begun to have a real impact.”
No need for nihilism I don’t want anyone to think that Osterholm is making a nihilist argument. Human responses do make a difference: Masks and social distancing can slow the spread of the virus, and vaccination can end a pandemic.
The most important step has been the vaccination of many older people. As a result, total British deaths have risen only modestly this summer, while deaths and hospitalizations remain rarer in heavily vaccinated parts of the U.S. than in less vaccinated ones.
But Osterholm’s plea for humility does have policy implications. It argues for prioritizing vaccination over every other strategy. It also reminds us to avoid believing that we can always know which behaviors create risks.
That lesson has particular relevance to schools. Many of the Covid rules that school districts are enacting seem overly confident about what matters, Osterholm told me. Ventilation seems helpful, and masking children may be. Yet reopening schools unavoidably involves risk. The alternative — months more of lost learning and social isolation — almost certainly involves more risk and greater costs to children. Fortunately, school employees and teenagers can be vaccinated, and severe childhood Covid remains extremely rare.
We are certainly not powerless in the face of Covid. We can reduce its risks, just as we can reduce the risks from driving, biking, swimming and many other everyday activities. But we cannot eliminate them. “We’re not in nearly as much control as we think are,” Osterholm said.
SO fucking stressful. Especially since HR denied my request already. So now it's just up to me and my boss to hash it out.
It's extra annoying that we all had to flee from the office and figure out how to work from home on a dime, but now they just want us to come back in as cases are rising again and young kids still can't be vaccinated for no apparent reason. Like, wtf y'all.
At my workplace, they initially started bringing everyone back in the office in June 2020 (WHY?!), then shit really hit the fan and in October a ton of our employees tested positive. So they sent us back home through the holidays, and then back in office again in January 2021. Technically we're supposed to have a 4 days in/1 day at home schedule now, but it's "at your supervisor's discretion," and of course, my supervisor's discretion is a shitty one.
I don't understand why workplaces are so against WFH. It's bananas. If you can't keep track of whether or not your employees are getting their work done, well maybe you're just a terrible boss.
Over the next couple weeks I'll be coming in to relieve my co-worker a bit, and then between the two of us we'll have FT coverage when the semester starts in a few weeks. For now it's for us to work out, so I'm definitely going to push for at least working part time from home for as much/long as possible to minimize risk.
fwiw Conor Oberst said Bright Eyes is cancelling shows so people dont get sick. seems he wasnt supposed to say that bc his guitarist made the cut hand signal
Post by jorgeandthekraken on Jul 31, 2021 9:47:42 GMT -5
I'm seeing some doctors and scientists online saying, rather than taking Provincetown as a sign that the vaccines don't work, we should be seeing it as proof they do under a pretty big stress test. I had no idea when I first read the report about it that it was Bear Week when this happened. It was basically Mardi Gras for gay men, with a TON of mass indoor events, close-quarter mingling, etc. That only 900 people got infected, that only 4 vaccinated people were admitted to the hospital, and that no one has died is kind of proof positive that the vaccines are doing their job. The vaccinated-to-vaccinated transmission thing is not good news no matter how you slice it, but also, Provincetown's positivity rate has dropped from a peak of 15% on 7/15 to 4.8% as of yesterday.
Most of the media headlines I've seen have painted this as a nightmare scenario, but think of what an absolute horror show it would have been in a world without vaccines. It would have been a massive super-spreading event that likely would have sparked a prolonged regional outbreak. But that's not where we are.
I dunno. Again, it'd sure be better if the vaccines provided sterilizing immunity to all variants but, all things considered, it looks like they performed well under circumstances that really challenged their capabilities.
I'm seeing some doctors and scientists online saying, rather than taking Provincetown as a sign that the vaccines don't work, we should be seeing it as proof they do under a pretty big stress test. I had no idea when I first read the report about it that it was Bear Week when this happened. It was basically Mardi Gras for gay men, with a TON of mass indoor events, close-quarter mingling, etc. That only 900 people got infected, that only 4 vaccinated people were admitted to the hospital, and that no one has died is kind of proof positive that the vaccines are doing their job. The vaccinated-to-vaccinated transmission thing is not good news no matter how you slice it, but also, Provincetown's positivity rate has dropped from a peak of 15% on 7/15 to 4.8% as of yesterday.
Most of the media headlines I've seen have painted this as a nightmare scenario, but think of what an absolute horror show it would have been in a world without vaccines. It would have been a massive super-spreading event that likely would have sparked a prolonged regional outbreak. But that's not where we are.
I dunno. Again, it'd sure be better if the vaccines provided sterilizing immunity to all variants but, all things considered, it looks like they performed well under circumstances that really challenged their capabilities.
let me get this straight. the CDC changed all their rules in response to an event that is essentially the max possible saliva/droplet/air exchange possible? that seems insanely irresponsible.
I'm sure they were looking at data outside of what happened in Provincetown
Maybe. Right now, my understanding is the Provincetown outbreak was the main driver, plus a preprint out of India that used modeling rather than observation and was rejected on peer review.
I mean, the CDC is not wrong, per se - vaccinated people can catch and pass Delta. But their communication to the public has been and remains TERRIBLE, and to paint what happened in Provincetown as indicative or standard patterns isn’t, to my mind, the best way to go about things.
A pharmacist friend gave a Pfizer shot to someone that got J&J earlier in the year. He didn't tell her he got the J&J until after she had given it to him. He wanted a booster.
A pharmacist friend gave a Pfizer shot to someone that got J&J earlier in the year. He didn't tell her he got the J&J until after she had given it to him. He wanted a booster.
Working a fair, few are masked. A Florida woman told me it's political and if Biden wasn't president we wouldn't be wearing masks. I'm wearing a mask, btw. She then looks at me and straight up says. "I can't believe the bull people believe and will do when it's unnecessary. Masks are useless."
Oh, so I'm gullible and dumb. Thanks, older than dirt lady who is obviously a scientist/doctor. 🙄
Best part of the day. Lady in a mask comes up to me and says, "looks like it's just you and me taking this thing seriously." I respond, "sometimes it feels that way, for sure "
Best part of the day. Lady in a mask comes up to me and says, "looks like it's just you and me taking this thing seriously." I respond, "sometimes it feels that way, for sure "
That’s usually the point that I stop and look very serious in their eyes and remind them that they’ll die soon. You usually get a look of “was that a threat?” and they put whatever down and just move on.
Lady in the booth next to me, who sells a few sewn items comes to my booth, picks up a bag and says, "I was going to make bags just like these. I'm glad I didn't. Besides they aren't worth my time to make." First I make 4 different bag styles. You just do happen to make ALL FOUR of my styles? Ummm, idt so. Then she goes, "I only sell my masks for $3. I had a ton of fabric when this happened, so it didn't cost me that much to make them." I tell her, well mine cost this much each to make which is why I charge what I charge. She goes, "$10 is a ripoff, I'm not going to charge anyone that much."
Post by Jeremy Jamm on Aug 2, 2021 11:54:04 GMT -5
I feel like I have to when it's inside. Outside.... I don't know. I didn't at the only show I've been to, granted I was not really around anyone. I generally don't get into the crowd regardless and hang at the back.
Working with an anti-vaxxer on the box today. He's a part-time paramedic full-time firefighter. I'm wearing my mask most of the time, even when vaccinated. He starts the shift unmasked and gets right into it with me - "so do you think masks work?" And "what do you think of all this new variant stuff?"
He not a full-on conspiracy guy. He knows it's real, in fact he said his whole fire station got it VERY early, December 2019, well before anyone knew anything around here. They traced it to a crewmember who had traveled to Europe in November. He had symptoms of a chronic cough and fatigue for two weeks.
He genuinely stands by the vaccines are not as effective as actually gaining the true antibodies, and are mostly worthless. He especially despises the fact companies are heading towards forcing people to get them (we argued about this for awhile). And with new outbreak thinks we'll just be chasing a cure forever. That I had to agree with him, for better or worse, regardless of why or how.
Not coincidentally, we've had three COVID calls already today, most I've had since March. It just feels like it's never going to end. I still love doing my job though. Some days it's overwhelming, and may feel like it's not making a difference, but that's when the existential conversation ends at we can only do so much in any given shift. Go home and appreciate what we have.
Last Edit: Aug 2, 2021 12:31:20 GMT -5 by llz - Back to Top