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Post by coldfrontin on Jun 6, 2010 16:33:33 GMT -5
I would think that friday latenight into sunday afternoon would have the lowest chance of rain. The entire outlook is looking unexpectedly iffy at the moment though to be totally honest; could be looking at more than just afternoon 'pop up' showers. I'll update tomorrow and hopefully know more, but right now it looks like a flip of the coin call as pathetic as that sounds.
Once we get within 84 hours I can start using output from other models besides the GFS which will be SUPER useful. Some models have higher resolution but don't run for as long since they demand a lot of computation power. Thus, within 84 hours the forecast usually gets A LOT better. By all means though keep checking accuweather and whatnot to get all the versions of the story
Last Edit: Jun 6, 2010 16:38:49 GMT -5 by coldfrontin - Back to Top
Post by coldfrontin on Jun 6, 2010 16:50:33 GMT -5
Last post of the day.. promise.
here's a forecast discussion (REAL professionals who do this everyday) from a little south of manchester. QPF just means how much rain:
"GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE SHOWING THE RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STRENGTHENING AGAIN THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DESPITE THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE...AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SLIDE SOUTH AND SET UP SOMEWHERE NEAR A LINE FROM CENTRAL TN INTO NORTHWEST GA DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. BELIEVE GFS AT THIS POINT IS HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES...SO DO NOT THINK THE AMOUNT OR AREAL COVERAGE OF ITS QPF NEAR AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 IS REALISTIC. ECMWF LOOKS BETTER AND SUGGESTS THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND PERHAPS NORTHEASTERN AL(LOCATIONS NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY). EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET."
To summarize: they don't trust the GFS after thursday, and whether we get rain or not depends on how close that frontal boundary gets to us. Unfortunately, the exact location of the front is totally unknown ("somewhere near central TN").
Last Edit: Jun 6, 2010 16:55:20 GMT -5 by coldfrontin - Back to Top
Coldfrontin: If we do get the rain Thurs/Fri, does that mean the ridging will follow, resulting in a clear Sat and Sun?
Except for the possible pop-up storms...
Here's the current NWS forecast:
Wednesday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. North northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.
Thursday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 89. Calm wind becoming north northwest around 5 mph.
Thursday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. North northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Friday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 90. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 71.
Saturday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 91. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 70.
Sunday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 91. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
here's a forecast discussion (REAL professionals who do this everyday) from a little south of manchester. QPF just means how much rain:
"GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE SHOWING THE RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STRENGTHENING AGAIN THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DESPITE THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE...AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SLIDE SOUTH AND SET UP SOMEWHERE NEAR A LINE FROM CENTRAL TN INTO NORTHWEST GA DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. BELIEVE GFS AT THIS POINT IS HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES...SO DO NOT THINK THE AMOUNT OR AREAL COVERAGE OF ITS QPF NEAR AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 IS REALISTIC. ECMWF LOOKS BETTER AND SUGGESTS THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND PERHAPS NORTHEASTERN AL(LOCATIONS NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY). EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET."
To summarize: they don't trust the GFS after thursday, and whether we get rain or not depends on how close that frontal boundary gets to us. Unfortunately, the exact location of the front is totally unknown ("somewhere near central TN").
Post by coldfrontin on Jun 6, 2010 18:30:37 GMT -5
scattered i think means the areal coverage is slightly larger, so the chances of getting rained on are SLIGHTLY higher.
i got that last discussion snippet from some office in northern alabama. the NWS office that does the discussions for central TN never really 'discusses' much.
you are lucky to not care; i'm kind of obsessed with the topic. i do admire your unconditional enthusiasm though! and i agree, barring some sort of mesoscale-convective-complex or uber strong squall line with with strong tent leveling microbursts, it will still be BonnarooOOOOoOO!
Last Edit: Jun 6, 2010 18:33:40 GMT -5 by coldfrontin - Back to Top
Post by Funky Munky on Jun 6, 2010 21:05:24 GMT -5
As Defined by the NWS (National Weather Service)
www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/jetstream/ap… Isolated A National Weather Service convective precipitation descriptor for a 10% chance of measurable precipitation (0.01"). Isolated is used interchangeably with few. See Precipitation Probability (PoP).
Isolated Storm An individual cell or a group of cells that are identifiable and separate from other cells in a geographic area.
www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/jetstream/ap… Scattered (SCT) 1. An official sky cover classification for aviation weather observations, descriptive of a sky cover of 3/8 to 4/8. This is applied only when obscuring phenomenon aloft are present--that is, not when obscuring phenomenon are surface-based, such as fog. 2. A National Weather Service convective precipitation descriptor for a 30%, 40%, and 50% chance of measurable precipitation (> Trace). See Probability of Precipitation (PoP).
For those of you still comparing Accuweather vs The Weather Channel, here you go. This time I've put the weekly forecast so that it can show the amount of precipitation expected:
Accuweather on left (numbers on right are average highs/lows) and TWC on right:
To put things in perspective, I live in KCMO, north of the Missouri river. For the last week the forecast has called for scattered/isolated thunderstorms, possibly severe. Not a drop at my house. Pop ups around, but they move fast and it has really been nice and sunny. My experience has been that Bonnaroo gets really similar weather so I wouldn't be at all concerned. It is what it is and whatever it is shouldn't last long. I'm thinking sunscreen is more important than raingear at this point!
Wednesday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 69. West southwest wind between 5 and 10 mph becoming calm.
Thursday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 89. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph.
Thursday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Friday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 91. Calm wind becoming south southwest around 5 mph.
Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 70.
Saturday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 91.
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 69.
Sunday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 89. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Post by coldfrontin on Jun 7, 2010 11:23:36 GMT -5
no major changes to the big picture so i won't post new maps right now. basically a big rain killing ridge of death setting up by friday, and a frontal zone a bit to the north thursday. Depending on how close that front drops down and how quick and strong the ridge sets up we could get anything from pretty cloudy to a strong storm early on. it's probably going to be a LOT like last year, with the highest chance for storms thursday and maybe into thursday evening, then smooth sailing from there. its . . . so . . . close . . .
Last Edit: Jun 7, 2010 11:26:45 GMT -5 by coldfrontin - Back to Top
Last year I personally loved the rain. It cooled down the place for the next day or so, and also nothing makes you feel closer to your roo brethren than being stuck in a giant storm together
Post by coldfrontin on Jun 7, 2010 18:33:03 GMT -5
it looks like there's going to be a front moving through wednesday, so we will likely be showing up on a wet farm. also, just like last year, it is probably going to be storming or very close to storming most of thursday. rain is a lot less likely friday through sunday, but we will probably see a small amount of brief but heavy storms pop up over the weekend- 'afternoon thunderstorms,' but nothing long lived and treacherous. Almost EXACTLY the same as last year.
Also, count on it to be HOT! And there looks like the possibility of rain monday but there is no telling whether it'll affect people trying to get out in the morning. That's probably about as good as the forecast is gonna get: decent chance of rain early, then late afternoon showers with hot heat. Typical.
See you all there! I'll be the guy with a cardboard boognish mask on. :-D
Last Edit: Jun 7, 2010 18:34:50 GMT -5 by coldfrontin - Back to Top
Post by coldfrontin on Jun 7, 2010 21:10:07 GMT -5
he's probably thinking mud because i said 'showing up to a wet farm.' i think it's pretty impossible to predict mud depth under variable foot traffic though. i'm bringing two pairs of shoes and calling it done.
Yeah, I read it. "Coldfrontin", the most auhoritative voice on this subject, indicates that a front is moving through Wednesday and that we'll likely be entering a "wet farm". Then, it's is likely to storm most or all of Thursday. I haven't been to Bonnaroo before, and I'm wondering if the amount of rain in that scenario would result in a super-muddy experience throughout the weekend. If the weather looks very similar to last year--wasn't it pretty muddy?
Post by coldfrontin on Jun 7, 2010 21:44:02 GMT -5
there was mud in spots but you could usually just walk around it. areas on the edges of this/that/the other tents seemed to be really muddy, i didn't look for gutters. they usually put down plywood and bring in extra sand which can help. seriously though, a couple pairs of shoes and you'll be fine. last year it was sometimes difficult finding a dry place to chill on the ground but it wasn't 'ankle deep.' a little wet-ass never hurt anyone. have fun at your first roo!!!
Last Edit: Jun 7, 2010 21:46:32 GMT -5 by coldfrontin - Back to Top
Yeah, I read it. "Coldfrontin", the most auhoritative voice on this subject, indicates that a front is moving through Wednesday and that we'll likely be entering a "wet farm". Then, it's is likely to storm most or all of Thursday. I haven't been to Bonnaroo before, and I'm wondering if the amount of rain in that scenario would result in a super-muddy experience throughout the weekend. If the weather looks very similar to last year--wasn't it pretty muddy?
But what difference does it make, really? Would you not come even if there would be ankle-deep mud? No. Just show up and have a good time, man.
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Post by coldfrontin on Jun 7, 2010 21:49:14 GMT -5
here's a sweet product from that model that only goes out 84 hours. it's the simulated radar for thursday. take it with a grain of salt but it kind of gives you an idea of the rain-risk. i'm assuming everyone here is familiar with the concept of radar: green means rain, dark green means more rain.
