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I'm going to stick with my original post about it raining during/around set up time. It WILL rain as a long wave progresses through the ohio valley sometime around thursday. It will not be 'afternoon rain due to humidity' (which we call diurnal convection --- it's more about the energy from the afternoon sun destabilizing the atmosphere than humidity). It will be "rain like f8k until this front passes." There is still uncertainty as to when the front will finally pass, but i'm thinking by mid-friday or so. After the front passes, high pressure will build in (saturday), which means pretty clear skies, relatively dry air, and little to no convective potential. We might see some 'afternoon rain' on sunday....
....Be ready to set up in the rain is what i'm saying.
hahahaha! i didn't think anyone would actually dig up my forecast from last year. Thanks.
incidentally, i had to set up in a crazy quacking storm . . . although i'm sure a lot of other people had better timing, since it passed after we got all set up.
Last Edit: Jun 6, 2010 9:35:01 GMT -5 by coldfrontin - Back to Top
thank you very much for keeping us out-of-towners up to date. It REALLY REALLY helps. BTW, your signature is both one of the nerdiest and greatest things I've ever read
Post by coldfrontin on Jun 6, 2010 11:26:46 GMT -5
i can't pretend to know about cloud cover this far out. the model statistics say overcast, which is the maximum cloud cover. i really couldn't say one way or the other with confidence though.
Post by dreamingtree on Jun 6, 2010 11:45:35 GMT -5
I'm just going to see what happens and not worry about it. The forecast in the Nashville area for the past week has looked like that and I don't think we've seen any more than a passing storm and 10 minutes of rain.
I'm just going to see what happens and not worry about it. The forecast in the Nashville area for the past week has looked like that and I don't think we've seen any more than a passing storm and 10 minutes of rain.
It's been the same in Knoxville. We've had 40 - 60% chances for the last 10 days, with only mild thunderstorms every few days or so.
Post by plasticpepper on Jun 6, 2010 12:44:46 GMT -5
Hmm, weather's looking pretty good. I can deal with the heat, and I guess it's looking like it won't be horribly wet and muddy?
How has it been there lately? Is the ground dry enough to soak up some rain? If so I'll be happy...I don't mind the rain itself, but it sucks if it rains a bit and then everything is muddy for the entire weekend.
anyone who is hoping for a complete lack of rain is setting themselves up for dissapointment. plan for it instead! just bring some rainboots and a poncho and you'll be so set and you can still dance the day/night away even if everything is soaked. also, bring plenty of tarps everyone!! you don't want to get caught with a wet tent area!!!
i've checked both weather.com and accuweather and it looks like we're gonna have about half sun and half rain. i'd rather it was sunny but hey, at least this way i don't need to worry about getting a sunburn with my delicate english/irish/scottish skin
anyone who is hoping for a complete lack of rain is setting themselves up for dissapointment. plan for it instead! just bring some rainboots and a poncho and you'll be so set and you can still dance the day/night away even if everything is soaked. also, bring plenty of tarps everyone!! you don't want to get caught with a wet tent area!!!
i've checked both weather.com and accuweather and it looks like we're gonna have about half sun and half rain. i'd rather it was sunny but hey, at least this way i don't need to worry about getting a sunburn with my delicate english/irish/scottish skin
It's more like a chance of an afternoon spot thunderstorm. It'd be like - mostly sun, a half hour downpour, then things are ok afterwards
The weather people are clueless right now. Weather.com says there will be rain, but I live right outside Manchester and our local news said no rain this weekend and temps reaching 93 on Saturday. SO, who knows. Come prepared I guess.
Check the maps - you pretty much just don't want a cold front. You end up with a bad case of storms riding out ahead of the front. However, after a cold front passes the weather is usually a bit of a relief. Check the maps for a few days out. Cold fronts are blue.
Post by hibouxdufromage on Jun 6, 2010 13:56:08 GMT -5
I'm bringing sunscreen and wellies. With the water table as high as it is, a short afternoon shower could turn the whole place into a mudpit. Bring back the bouncy sand!
Post by coldfrontin on Jun 6, 2010 14:11:29 GMT -5
hey hey! another met person! are you doing operational forecasting? do you think the high pressure/ridge will make it far enough by thursday morning to suppress frontal convection between 06Z-12Z? i'm kind of worried about waiting in line during rain right when the gates open and i'm counting on good timing for that low.
I totally agree about 10 day forecasts, which is why accuweather products are such a joke. Maybe close to 10 days in the middle of winter when rossby waves are moving nice and predictably through the mid lats and the models can get a good handle on them.
Last Edit: Jun 6, 2010 14:14:36 GMT -5 by coldfrontin - Back to Top
Post by coldfrontin on Jun 6, 2010 14:28:48 GMT -5
the latest gfs run has the low off of the coast of new england intensifying through friday . im curious to see whether that front does in fact end up draping right over northern TN. that would be laaaaame. luckily, like you said, this far out the frontal analysis is iffy. also, i'm thinking that the front should be pretty weak that far away from the system. c'monnnn subsidence! lol
Post by coldfrontin on Jun 6, 2010 15:00:58 GMT -5
yeah so i'm going to go ahead and change my 'unsure about cloud cover' to super cloudy thursday into friday. hopefully the next few model runs don't show that front sagging down into TN too far or we would be looking at rain early on.
Last Edit: Jun 6, 2010 15:01:34 GMT -5 by coldfrontin - Back to Top
the latest gfs run has the low off of the coast of new england intensifying through friday . im curious to see whether that front does in fact end up draping right over northern TN. that would be laaaaame. luckily, like you said, this far out the frontal analysis is iffy. also, i'm thinking that the front should be pretty weak that far away from the system. c'monnnn subsidence! lol
NWS now saying 50% chance of storms on Thursday instead of the 20% before.
And front moving through New England by Friday? Crap. *Checks NWS on Warwick, RI...* 40% chance of rain Thursday. Hopefully my flight down is fine.
I stop paying attention to Picasso around his and Georges Braque's cubism thing. Groundbreaking at the time, yes, interesting, sure, point quickly made, moving on. I like his rose period stuff the best. Here's some things from my go-to guy for wacky art:
His name is Ian Francis, and he loves it when people hijack weather threads with his artwork, maybe. ifrancis.co.uk
Post by winwithwallis on Jun 6, 2010 16:23:12 GMT -5
Just checked acuweather.com and it predicts the weather will be 92/92 and feel like 99/97 with rain every day & heavy rains Saturday. Also, the sunrise is 5:30am and sunset 8pm.
. im curious to see whether that front does in fact end up draping right over northern TN. that would be laaaaame. luckily, like you said, this far out the frontal analysis is iffy. also, i'm thinking that the front should be pretty weak that far away from the system. c'monnnn subsidence! lol
