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Question for the New Yorkers. Given that there is little chance this happens in June, what weekend would you plan for this to happen weather-wise? It's no secret GovBall has had horrendous luck with rain and I wonder if there's a more strategic weekend they could shift to. I see it as an opportune time now that they aren't catering to the under 18 crowd.
Probably around now. If Labor Day is out because of Bonnaroo. I’d say second weekend of September through the first weekend of October would all work. In my opinion this is the best weather New York gets all year.
They would have to compete with Electric Zoo if they went mid month. It might help though as theres a strong chance they can share some infrastructure and ease costs. Although somebody is gonna get the short end of the stick with terrible grounds conditions. Routing would be the biggest issue as they would be asking some acts that could be at LIB or ACL to fly back to NY for a one off and then continue on a tour. Gonna have to be rather enticing to make some acts commit to that.
Question for the New Yorkers. Given that there is little chance this happens in June, what weekend would you plan for this to happen weather-wise? It's no secret GovBall has had horrendous luck with rain and I wonder if there's a more strategic weekend they could shift to. I see it as an opportune time now that they aren't catering to the under 18 crowd.
June 3-5, 2022.
I'm not even kidding. I think there's no way any US music festival happens next year, unless a) they somehow come up with a rapid test you can take at the gates that tells you whether you're positive in literal minutes, or b) they completely change what a music festival is, in some way, to make it somehow safer. Even then, I dunno.
THAT SAID, if we want to speculate on fall dates, I'd say mid-late September - maybe the weekend before Septemberoo. Basically, around when The Meadows tended to happen. We're still going to deal with the risk of bad weather - that's just NYC these days. But it'd be good in terms of the humidity having broken a bit, but the temps remaining warm enough to make day-long outdoor activity not suck.
You make an interesting point. Let's put this out there too. What if (yes I know it's a big IF but lets chat) a couple vaccines are widely available by April 2021? What would General Cuomo require founders to do to allow the festival to happen? If only vaccinated attendees are allowed, then Founders wouldn't have to change anything regarding the festival configuration, right? That rapid test would have to produce instant results wouldn't it? Could you imagine the lines at the gates? Depressing to think about.
If it’s 2022 then at some point it’s a toss up between surviving or dying
They might not even get the choice, you know? If the city says no, then it's no. Of course, that might be preferable to having to make a choice, on Founders' end, since it would likely make a difference in terms of their insurance situation.
If it’s 2022 then at some point it’s a toss up between surviving or dying
They might not even get the choice, you know? If the city says no, then it's no. Of course, that might be preferable to having to make a choice, on Founders' end, since it would likely make a difference in terms of their insurance situation.
the city has been pretty lax to business interests IMO so I think if Live Nation pushes to have it, the city would let them
I'm not even kidding. I think there's no way any US music festival happens next year, unless a) they somehow come up with a rapid test you can take at the gates that tells you whether you're positive in literal minutes, or b) they completely change what a music festival is, in some way, to make it somehow safer. Even then, I dunno.
THAT SAID, if we want to speculate on fall dates, I'd say mid-late September - maybe the weekend before Septemberoo. Basically, around when The Meadows tended to happen. We're still going to deal with the risk of bad weather - that's just NYC these days. But it'd be good in terms of the humidity having broken a bit, but the temps remaining warm enough to make day-long outdoor activity not suck.
You make an interesting point. Let's put this out there too. What if (yes I know it's a big IF but lets chat) a couple vaccines are widely available by April 2021? What would General Cuomo require founders to do to allow the festival to happen? If only vaccinated attendees are allowed, then Founders wouldn't have to change anything regarding the festival configuration, right? That rapid test would have to produce instant results wouldn't it? Could you imagine the lines at the gates? Depressing to think about.
But how would you even check attendees have been vaccinated? Paperwork can be pretty easily falsified in this day and age. You'd have to have some spoof-proof form of "I got vaccinated" ID...which is certainly something that's not going to be created just for music festivals, and which comes with its own ethical thorns in a larger societal sense. Plus, the logistics of reviewing and processing that on Founders' end would be staggering, and likely expensive.
Not that rapid testing would be any different. And, yeah, I'm talking about something that can yield results in, like, 5 minutes, which isn't STUPID far-fetched - there are efforts to develop those kinds of things that are ongoing now. Of course, it would create a nightmare at the gates, and I don't even know how that would work in terms of how you'd distribute and execute it safely with such a large group of people. But then, I wouldn't even know how to start running logistics on an event GovBall's size without a pandemic, so I'm sure there are people smarter than me who could figure it out.
That said, all of the above complications are part of why I feel like events like this aren't coming back until we have some combination of a) widely distributed, effective vaccines, b) treatment that nukes the mortality rate, and c) rapid, affordable, easily accessible testing. All of those things are in the works, but whether they come to fruition in time for festivals to happen at all next year is super-tough to say.
They might not even get the choice, you know? If the city says no, then it's no. Of course, that might be preferable to having to make a choice, on Founders' end, since it would likely make a difference in terms of their insurance situation.
the city has been pretty lax to business interests IMO so I think if Live Nation pushes to have it, the city would let them
Oh, hard disagree. There's a difference between opening, say, indoor dining at reduced capacity and allowing a three-day event that's going to gather tens of thousands of people in one place, singing and shouting and crowded together. I know we've had protests and no associated spike, but that's just a different animal than a for-profit event that would draw the amount of attendees GovBall does for the amount of time that it does.
the city has been pretty lax to business interests IMO so I think if Live Nation pushes to have it, the city would let them
Oh, hard disagree. There's a difference between opening, say, indoor dining at reduced capacity and allowing a three-day event that's going to gather tens of thousands of people in one place, singing and shouting and crowded together. I know we've had protests and no associated spike, but that's just a different animal than a for-profit event that would draw the amount of attendees GovBall does for the amount of time that it does.
We dont have any hard evidence on this, but I feel pretty confident that indoor dining is worse than an outdoor concert, even with thousands of people. I would 100% do neither right now, but indoor dining in DC is something like 80% of all transmission currently, and most major cities seem hellbent on letting the restaurant industry do what they want.
Oh, hard disagree. There's a difference between opening, say, indoor dining at reduced capacity and allowing a three-day event that's going to gather tens of thousands of people in one place, singing and shouting and crowded together. I know we've had protests and no associated spike, but that's just a different animal than a for-profit event that would draw the amount of attendees GovBall does for the amount of time that it does.
We dont have any hard evidence on this, but I feel pretty confident that indoor dining is worse than an outdoor concert, even with thousands of people. I would 100% do neither right now, but indoor dining in DC is something like 80% of all transmission currently, and most major cities seem hellbent on letting the restaurant industry do what they want.
The problem w a festival though outdoor or not is that people are on top of each other yelling and screaming which sounds like an easy transmission event to me
We dont have any hard evidence on this, but I feel pretty confident that indoor dining is worse than an outdoor concert, even with thousands of people. I would 100% do neither right now, but indoor dining in DC is something like 80% of all transmission currently, and most major cities seem hellbent on letting the restaurant industry do what they want.
The problem w a festival though outdoor or not is that people are on top of each other yelling and screaming which sounds like an easy transmission event to me
Yeah its an easy transmission event, but so is indoor dining
The problem w a festival though outdoor or not is that people are on top of each other yelling and screaming which sounds like an easy transmission event to me
Yeah its an easy transmission event, but so is indoor dining
Yeah...but indoor dining may be what 50 people...a festival is like 50,000
Yeah its an easy transmission event, but so is indoor dining
Yeah...but indoor dining may be what 50 people...a festival is like 50,000
I think this is kind of key. Even if, over time, you were able to produce a study that says more infections could be traced to indoor dining than to an outdoor concert, how do you allow for the optics of tens of thousands of people partying their asses off in close proximity to one another and justify any sort of other restrictions at all?
Yeah...but indoor dining may be what 50 people...a festival is like 50,000
Ya, and nuking festivals hurts a handful of companies but indoor dining is a lot of small businesses. That’s easy math for a politician
But festivals help those small businesses with residual business due to the event happening. So the city isnt going to welcome an event like that? I found this and it shows their numbers from 2016. States that the economic impact was almost 40 million. Im sure it is likely around 50 million now.
Ya, and nuking festivals hurts a handful of companies but indoor dining is a lot of small businesses. That’s easy math for a politician
But festivals help those small businesses with residual business due to the event happening. So the city isnt going to welcome an event like that? I found this and it shows their numbers from 2016. States that the economic impact was almost 40 million. Im sure it is likely around 50 million now.
But festivals help those small businesses with residual business due to the event happening. So the city isnt going to welcome an event like that? I found this and it shows their numbers from 2016. States that the economic impact was almost 40 million. Im sure it is likely around 50 million now.
And Electric Zoo just announced their dates as September 3-5 (AKA the same weekend as Bonnaroo - weird flex, but OK) at Randall's Island.
Honestly, I still think we're looking at no festivals next year, at the absolute least here in NYC, but just for the sake of speculation, I think this means that, if there's a fall GovBall at the usual location, it has to happen in either very late September or some time in October. The grounds get torn to shreds at an event like EZoo or GovBall, so there's re-sodding that needs to happen afterwards, and throwing another music festival in the same spot even a couple of weeks later would just completely negate those efforts.
And Electric Zoo just announced their dates as September 3-5 (AKA the same weekend as Bonnaroo - weird flex, but OK) at Randall's Island.
Honestly, I still think we're looking at no festivals next year, at the absolute least here in NYC, but just for the sake of speculation, I think this means that, if there's a fall GovBall at the usual location, it has to happen in either very late September or some time in October. The grounds get torn to shreds at an event like EZoo or GovBall, so there's re-sodding that needs to happen afterwards, and throwing another music festival in the same spot even a couple of weeks later would just completely negate those efforts.
couldn't they do consecutive weekends and just not re-sod in between?
And Electric Zoo just announced their dates as September 3-5 (AKA the same weekend as Bonnaroo - weird flex, but OK) at Randall's Island.
Honestly, I still think we're looking at no festivals next year, at the absolute least here in NYC, but just for the sake of speculation, I think this means that, if there's a fall GovBall at the usual location, it has to happen in either very late September or some time in October. The grounds get torn to shreds at an event like EZoo or GovBall, so there's re-sodding that needs to happen afterwards, and throwing another music festival in the same spot even a couple of weeks later would just completely negate those efforts.
couldn't they do consecutive weekends and just not re-sod in between?
Theoretically, but the damage to the park would be really bad. Plus, I think the city has a say in it all, and wouldn’t be down with that.
So.......are we thinking this might actually be a possibility next year? Perhaps in the fall?
honestly with how things are going now I wouldnt be surprised if we dont get shows and festivals back until 2022. Americans are extremely stupid people.
So.......are we thinking this might actually be a possibility next year? Perhaps in the fall?
I can’t see this happening in the summer or next year at all. The vaccine is going to be poorly received by the masses, and not readily available for those who did want it. 2021 is never gonna happen.
I could see it happening over the fall, assuming that Live Nation makes vaccination mandatory for attendance.
It's interesting that's being kicked around as a tactic. I'm really curious as to how that could be mandated and tracked in a way that's spoof-proof.
It also raises a question in my mind of how much attendance they'd need to have in order to turn a profit. Requiring vaccination is inherently going to ding the pool of potential ticket-buyers. Does it make more sense from a financial standpoint to put on a smaller event, or wait until the following year, when you could conceivably just run a normal festival (for what it's worth, I don't actually know the answer to that question)?
IF the optimistic takes on vaccine roll-out bear out (which I'd typically bet against, but we *did* hit the optimistic estimates of when the first vaccines would clear Phase III trials, and we'll actually have a more competent federal government in place, next year), I could see something *possibly* happening in 2021 if they did it in September or October, and if they could figure out a way to mandate vaccinations among ticket-buyers. That's a lot of ifs, though.
My money's on 2022, but I would be thrilled to lose that bet.
I could see it happening over the fall, assuming that Live Nation makes vaccination mandatory for attendance.
It's interesting that's being kicked around as a tactic. I'm really curious as to how that could be mandated and tracked in a way that's spoof-proof.
It also raises a question in my mind of how much attendance they'd need to have in order to turn a profit. Requiring vaccination is inherently going to ding the pool of potential ticket-buyers. Does it make more sense from a financial standpoint to put on a smaller event, or wait until the following year, when you could conceivably just run a normal festival (for what it's worth, I don't actually know the answer to that question)?
IF the optimistic takes on vaccine roll-out bear out (which I'd typically bet against, but we *did* hit the optimistic estimates of when the first vaccines would clear Phase III trials, and we'll actually have a more competent federal government in place, next year), I could see something *possibly* happening in 2021 if they did it in September or October, and if they could figure out a way to mandate vaccinations among ticket-buyers. That's a lot of ifs, though.
My money's on 2022, but I would be thrilled to lose that bet.
if people forge vaccine documentation and I have the vaccine they’re only hurting each other so...
It's interesting that's being kicked around as a tactic. I'm really curious as to how that could be mandated and tracked in a way that's spoof-proof.
It also raises a question in my mind of how much attendance they'd need to have in order to turn a profit. Requiring vaccination is inherently going to ding the pool of potential ticket-buyers. Does it make more sense from a financial standpoint to put on a smaller event, or wait until the following year, when you could conceivably just run a normal festival (for what it's worth, I don't actually know the answer to that question)?
IF the optimistic takes on vaccine roll-out bear out (which I'd typically bet against, but we *did* hit the optimistic estimates of when the first vaccines would clear Phase III trials, and we'll actually have a more competent federal government in place, next year), I could see something *possibly* happening in 2021 if they did it in September or October, and if they could figure out a way to mandate vaccinations among ticket-buyers. That's a lot of ifs, though.
My money's on 2022, but I would be thrilled to lose that bet.
if people forge vaccine documentation and I have the vaccine they’re only hurting each other so...
Except then the virus sticks around. We don’t have to get follow up vaccines if we can eradicate a disease
